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The Global Financial Crisis, China s Rise and the West s Decline: Welcome to the New World Order! Dr. Andrew Cottey Department of Government – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The%20Global%20Financial%20Crisis,%20China


1
The Global Financial Crisis, Chinas Rise and the
Wests DeclineWelcome to the New World Order!
  • Dr. Andrew Cottey
  • Department of Government
  • University College Cork, Ireland

2
Introduction
  • President George H. W. Bush, 1990-91 Gulf War
  • A new world order.
  • Noam Chomsky
  • The 500 Year War.

3
The Global Financial Crisis
  • The end of capitalism?
  • Capitalism historically rather robust
  • Absence of viable alternatives.
  • What kind(s) of capitalism?
  • The end of the neo-liberal Washington
    consensus?
  • The Brussels consensus?
  • The Beijing consensus?

4
The Global Financial Crisis
  • Medium and long-term impact?
  • To date, worst case scenarios have been avoided.
  • Instability in the financial sector and the
    liquidity crisis, however, continue.

5
Chinas Rise
  • 1978-2000s average annual economic growth rate
    approximately 9.
  • 1990s global impact of Chinas rise limited
    primarily an exporter.
  • 2000s China goes global
  • Multilateral institutions and political
    alliances e.g., WTO, UN Security Council, UN
    Human Rights Council, Shanghai Cooperation
    Organization, East Asian Community.
  • Search for energy and raw materials (Sudan,
    Africa, Iran, etc).
  • Aid policy emergence of China as an aid donor
    rather than recipient (esp in Africa).
  • Sovereign wealth funds China Investment
    Corporation (CIC) established September 2007 (-
    US 200bn, est. US 30bn to invest overseas in
    2008)
  • Soft power strategy e.g. Confucius Institutes,
    Beijing consensus.

6
Chinas Rise
  • China and the global financial crisis
  • Bucking the markets?
  • Chinese capital as a solution to the global
    liquidity problem?

7
The Rise of the Non-West
  • India, Brazil, Mexico, South Africa, etc high
    economic growth rates since mid-to-late 1990s
  • BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) group likely
    to become economically larger than G7 (Group of
    7).
  • Economic power now being converted into political
    influence
  • E.g., WTO negotiations UN Human Rights Council
    Beijing consensus debates on military
    intervention (Darfur, Zimbabwe, Burma) UNFCCC
    Kyoto II a potential train wreck?

8
US Decline?
  • Symptoms of decline
  • Budget deficit 2008 financial crisis defeat in
    Iraq and Afghanistan? military overstretch
    global public opinion and decline in soft
    power.
  • Relative or absolute decline?
  • Relative rise of other powers.
  • Economic assets.
  • Per centage of GDP devoted to defence
    sustainable.

9
US Decline?
  • Foreign policy challenges for the next US
    President
  • Recognising the limits of American power.
  • Building coalitions.
  • Restoring Americas soft power.

10
Europe Resurgence or Decline?
  • European economies show some signs of life.
  • Global financial crisis
  • Re-inforces the value of the European model of
    regulated capitalism.
  • European states and the EU have responded at
    least as convincingly as the US to the crisis.
  • Europe continues to struggle with hard power
  • but in an era of multilateral coalition building
    the European way is a significant force
  • Mark Leonard Why Europe will run the future.

11
The New World Order
  • Central long-term trend the rise of the
    non-West.
  • Global financial crisis likely to re-inforce this
  • Non-Western economies have weathered the crisis
    reasonably well likely to strengthen their
    relative economic and political power.
  • Weakened material power and ideological/
    normative power of the West.
  • Multipolarity rather than non-polarity.

12
The New World Order
  • Global challenges climate change, managing
    global capitalism, poverty in Africa,
    proliferation, terrorism
  • Requires building global political coalitions in
    a post-Western world
  • Need to reform global political institutions (UN
    Security Council, the G7, the IMF, the World
    Bank).
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