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Question: How much warming can CO2 cause?

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Title: Man Made Global Warming Author: Owner Last modified by: Pohanka Created Date: 9/29/2009 1:55:07 AM Document presentation format: On-screen Show (4:3) – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Question: How much warming can CO2 cause?


1
Question How much warming can CO2 cause?
  • Higher levels of atmospheric CO2 do cause some
    warming.
  • However, CO2s ability to absorb heat is
    logarithmic,
  • meaning the more CO2 there is, the less heat
    it can absorb.
  • If atmospheric CO2 levels double or triple, CO2,
    by itself, can not cause temperatures to rise
    more than 1.0 to 1.5
  • degrees C
  • (source T.J. Nelson,
    http//brneurosci.org/co2.html)
  • For CO2 to cause warming above 1.5 degrees
    Centigrade
  • rising levels of CO2 must cause positive
    feedbacks

2
Positive feedback, sometimes referred to as
"cumulative causation", refers to a situation
where some effect causes more of itself. A system
undergoing positive feedback is unstable, that
is, it will tend to spiral out of control as the
effect amplifies itself.

(Source Wikipedia)
  • Rising levels of CO2 can only cause
    temperatures to warm above about 1 degree C if
    they also causes more water vapor in the
    atmosphere/ heat trapping cirrus clouds/ and or a
    reduction in clouds.
  • But observation shows this does not
    happen.
  • Warming causes more low level clouds
    to form,
  • it rains and temperatures cool. Low
    level clouds are
  • negative feedbacks, they moderate
    temperature.

3
Cirrus Clouds slow the release of heat from the
atmosphere. Observation shows that fewer of these
clouds form when air temperatures warm.
4
C02s absorption of heat is logarithmic, the more
there is, the less heat it can absorb
5
Atmospheric CO2 levels continue to rise yet
temperatures are not following
6
Rapid temperature change is a daily, seasonal
occurrence
  • The difference between the daily low and high
    temperature can be as high as 35 deg F or more
  • Difference between record low and record high
    Virginia state temperatures is 140 degrees F
  • Mankind and nature survived these radical
    temperature changes, (they adapted)

7
Effect of CO2 on temperatures at two locations,
each at the same latitude
  • Dry desert
  • Humid jungle

8
The impact of humidity, H2O, and CO2 on high/low
temperatures
  • The slight impact of warming from CO2 can be
    demonstrated from the temperature changes between
    the low and high temperature in humid tropical
    and dry desert areas
  • Tropical areas are cooler in the day than the
    desert and are also warmer at night, due to the
    stabilizing effect of humidity.
  • In desert areas temperatures are both warmer in
    the day and cooler in night than tropical areas.
  • CO2 levels are about the same in both areas, yet
    the CO2 in the desert does not trap/retain the
    heat of the day. This demonstrates that CO2 by
    itself does not cause much warming and how
    important water vapor is in stabilizing
    temperature.

9
The theory of AGW
  • The theory of man made global warming states that
    increases in atmospheric CO2 from man will absorb
    heat and cause temperatures to rise. This warming
    from additional concentrations of CO2 is said to
    cause increasing levels of humidity which in turn
    absorbs even more heat, creating a vicious cycle
    with rising temperatures spinning out of control.
  • If this theory were correct, why did runaway
    global warming not ocure in earlier times, when
    atmospheric CO2 concentrations were much higher
    than todays?
  • Temperatures and humidity also rise substantially
    in summer. This has not triggered runaway
    temperatures, either.
  • Over geological time, there is no observed
    relationship between global climate and
    atmospheric CO2. Ian Plimer.

10
Observation shows that atmospheric humidity is
not rising as CO2 levels increase. This
contradicts the theory of AGW. Data source NOAA
Earth System Research Laboratory
11
CO2 is essential for life on Earth
  • CO2 levels were 270ppm in the mid 1700s (they
    are 380ppm today).
  • If CO2 levels fall below 150ppm, plants stop
    growing. Photosynthesis stops.
  • Most life on Earth was thus close to extinction
    during the glacial period of the ice ages due to
    a lack of atmospheric CO2 when CO2 levels fell to
    180ppm.

12
What is the impact of higher CO2 levels on plant
life?
13
Plants today grow 15 more quickly due to the
higher level of CO2. Greenhouses raise CO2
levels to 1,000ppm to increase the growth rate of
plants. Higher CO2 levels will help feed a
growing world population.
14
  • With rising levels of atmospheric CO2
  • Plants require less water to grow.
  • Arid areas of earth become more productive
    agriculturally

15
Question Is storm intensity increasing due to
AGW? U.S. tornado activity has been generally in
decline.
16
Global hurricane intensity is at 50 year
lows U.S. Hurricane activity is at 12 year lows


(source Florida State University)
17
In the past, landfall hurricane strikes in the
U.S. were much more common than the period since
the 1970s.
18
Global deaths due to extreme events are in
decline(source appinys.org)
19
Question Is the polar ice melting due to AGW?
  • The earth is in an interglacial period. There is
    an imbalance with the ice that remains at the
    poles from the last Ice Age and the warmer
    temperature of the Holocene. Slow melting has
    been going on for thousands of years and will
    continue.
  • At the Poles, 20,000,000 square kilometers of sea
    ice melt and then refreeze every year. As one
    pole melts the other freezes, thus there is an
    offsetting balance
  • Massive ice melt is natural and happens every
    single year

20
Both poles lose substantial amount of sea ice
every year in the polar Summer
21
  • Question
  • If the entire North Pole, all the Arctic ice
    melts, along
  • with all the sea ice on earth at both
    Poles
  • How high would the seas rise?

22
  • Answer None at All
  • Floating ice is already in the ocean,
    displacing water.
  • Melting sea ice cannot raise the sea level.

23
  • For the seas to rise, ice on land must melt.
  • Greenland has 10 of the global land ice
  • Antarctica has 90.
  • Question In what year did Antarctica, with 90
    of the globes land ice have the most sea ice
    ever recorded?

24
  • Answer 2012
  • Antarctica had the most sea ice ever recorded in
    2012

25
Antarctic sea ice has been growing almost
continuously for the last 30 years

(source The Air Vent)

26
Satellite data shows that atmospheric
temperatures above Antarctica have been cooling
since the start of measurement in 1979 (source,
University of Alabama, Huntsville)
27
There has been above average melting of the
Arctic sea ice but an almost equal growth of ice
in the Antarctic. Total global sea ice volumes
are remarkably stable.
28
Antarctica is the key to sea level rise
  • Sea ice is greatly influenced by temperature,
    especially water temperature
  • Sea ice has been growing in Antarctica for 30
    years. Temperatures have been cooling in 96 of
    Antarctica for 50 years (but not at the
    Peninsula)
  • The average temperature in Antarctic interior is
    -58 degrees F. It is also the highest Continent
    on earth with an average altitude of 8,200 feet.
  • Antarctica is classified as a desert. It is the
    driest place on earth. There is little snow.
  • If the man made global warming theory is true,
    sea ice will melt, but the higher humidity will
    cause much more snow in the interior and overall
    ice volumes will grow. This is also true of
    Greenland.
  • Mankind has little impact on the climate in
    Antarctica

29
Greenland has approximately ten percent of the
globes land ice. Ice cores taken in Greenland
show that temperatures there in the last
ten-thousand years have mostly been warmer than
today. The ice did not melt then. It probably is
not now.
30
Scientific name for the Polar Bear is Ursus
Maritimus, sea bear. Polar Bears are excellent
swimmers and can easily swim 100 miles or more.
The longest documented swim is 426 miles, non
stop, over nine days.. Polar Bear populations are
today the largest ever recorded, an increase of
300 since the 1960s Polar Bears have survived
previous periods when the Arctic ice melted
completely

(source of polar bear population, US Senate)
31
The sea level has been rising for 20,000 years
and the end of the last Ice Age. The rate of
increase has slowed, and especially in the last
four years (source Wikipedia_


32
Global sea level rise has been consistent, about
8 inches per century. Note the decline in Ocean
levels the past few years.
33
Some say rising CO2 will cause ocean
acidification, killing corals
  • If all the fossil fuels on earth were burned
    there would not be enough CO2 to cause the oceans
    to acidify.
  • CO2 in the ocean is converted to carbonate. It
    becomes fixed in insoluble form, sinking to the
    ocean bottom, forming limestone.
  • Coral reefs thrived when atmospheric CO2 was ten
    times higher and temperatures ten degrees warmer
    than today.
  • Corals have adapted in the past to changes in
    CO2 levels.


  • (Source Ian Plimmer)

34
Would a warming world lead to increased risk of
mosquito borne malaria?
  • Studies predicting that warmer climates will
    increase malaria infections commonly assume that
    the disease-causing parasites will develop faster
    and that the ability of the mosquito to acquire,
    maintain and transmit the pathogen will remain
    constant. They conclude that as temperature
    rises, mosquitoes become infectious quicker and
    therefore malaria transmission increases.
  • But the latest study shows that temperature has a
    more complex effect. As temperature rises,
    parasites do develop faster, but fewer of them
    become infectious. End result, a warming world
    would not have more malaria.
  • Malaria is no stranger to the northern climates.
    The largest malaria outbreak of modern times was
    in Siberia in the 1920s and 1930s, when 13
    million were infected, 600,000 died and 30,000
    died as far north as Arkhangelsk, on the Arctic
    Circle. Alaska has also had similar outbreaks of
    Malaria.

35
Why has the earth been warming if not from rising
CO2 levels? The Sun may be the answer.
36
  • The source for the warm temperatures we have and
    need to sustain life comes almost entirely from
    the Sun.
  • The Earths atmosphere and greenhouse gases are
    the reason its temperatures are not like those of
    the Moon, (-243 degrees F at night to 212
    degrees F in day).
  • Many climate scientists fail to look to the
    heavens to take a closer view of the Sun.

  • (source Wiki Answers)



37
Galileo was the first to observe Sunspots
38
Galileos drawing of sunspots in 1613
39
An active Sun on the left and inactive Sun on the
right. Sunspots are used to track solar activity.
Solar activity is not constant, the Sun has
cycles that last an average of 11 years. We are
now in cycle 24.
40
Changing solar activity is measured by observing
and counting Sunspots. Note how much solar
activity has increased since measurement began in
the year 1610.
41
The observatory at Armagh Ireland has one of the
longest continuous temperature records on earth.
This chart tracks the close relationship between
temperature (dots) from 1796, and 11 year solar
cycles (solid line).
(source Armagh
Observatory)
42
Solar activity and temperature appear to be
closely linked. source Jean-Louis Le Mouel,
Vincent Courtillot, Elena Blanter, Mikhail
Shnirman
43
The solar activity in the last decades of the
20th Century was the highest in 8,000 years. This
may explain why global temperatures were warming
in this period (chart is 1611 to 2001)
44
Sunspots have been counted for over 400 years.
They are used to track the 11 year average length
of the solar cycle. When there are fewer sunspots
global temperatures cool. There has been no
deviation from this relationship over this period.
45
The current solar cycle, cycle 24, is very slow
to ramp up. It is predicted to be very weak,
especially when compared to previous cycle 23.
Solar activity is the lowest in a century.
46
NASA also predicts that the current solar cycle
will be significantly less active than the
previous cycle that peaked in 2000.
47
Solar activity is driven by the Suns internal
magnetic field. The AP index (solar magnetic
activity) in December 2009 was at the lowest
level ever recorded. Note that the low AP index
in mid chart, was during the 1970s cooling
scare.

(Source David Archibald)
48
The Solar magnetic field strength, the AP index,
remains at very low levels and has not recovered
from the shift which began in October 2005.
49
Solar cycle lengths from 1762. Cycle 23, which
ended in 2009, is the longest since 1788, a cycle
that predated a several decade long very cold
period called the Dalton minimum. Longer cycles
have fewer sunspots than shorter ones.

(Source
Wattsupwiththat.com)
50
Temperature and solar records at De Bilt
Netherlands 1705 - 2000, demonstrates the close
relationship between solar cycle length and
temperatures. With each additional year of cycle
length above 11 years temperatures cool an
average of 0.7 degrees C. at this location.

(source David
Archibald)
51
The central England temperature record since 1659
shows the same general relationship between solar
cycle length in years and temperature.
52
Using the record of temperature and solar cycle
length at Hanover New Hampshire since 1835, one
can see that the short solar cycle 22 of the
1990s was during a warm period and the 12.5 year
long cycle 23 should result in a 2.0 degree C
reduction in temperature (3.6 deg F) at this
location over the expected twelve year life of
solar cycle 24.
(Source David
Archibald, using Friis-Christenson Larsen theory)
53
The relationship between Solar cycle length and
temperature at ten locations in Norway
  • With Solar Cycle 23 being 3 years longer than
    Solar Cycle 22, temperatures in Norway should
    decrease 0.6C to 1.8C in the next decade using
    historical data from the impact of previous Solar
    Cycles.
  • Source Jan-Erik Solheim

54
The years 2007, 2008, and 2009 have some of the
lowest solar activity since 1849 (when modern
records began). This might explain why global
temperatures have been cooling.

(Source Anthony Watts)
55
Solar winds in recent years were at lowest level
every recorded. Changes in solar activity have
impact on the atmosphere that surrounds Earth.
56
Solar Impact on cloud formation
  • The impact on the earths climate from the Sun
    goes beyond irradiance (heat). Solar winds have
    declined over 30 . Ultra violet radiation levels
    have also been in decline. Cosmic rays reaching
    earths surface have also increased
    substantially.
  • Some scientists believe that changing solar
    activity affect global temperatures by causing
    changes within the atmosphere and especially the
    clouds. With todays century low solar activity
    and record low solar winds, it is thought that
    the increase in cosmic rays that reach our
    atmosphere from deep in space cause more clouds
    to form. Clouds reflect up to 65 of solar
    radiation back into space, and when there are
    more clouds, temperatures cool. Conversely,
    increasing solar activity and the resulting
    increase in solar winds reduces the amount of
    cosmic rays that reach the atmosphere, fewer
    clouds form, more solar rays reach the earths
    surface, and this leads to higher temperatures.
  • If the past is a predictor of the future, the
    changes we now see in solar activity will cause
    the temperatures to cool for the next 20 years or
    longer. The Thames River at London could freeze
    once again as it often did during the Little Ice
    Age and into the early 1800s.

57
Relationship between cosmic rays and cloud
formation.
(source
David Archibald)
58
Lower solar activity allows more cosmic rays to
enter Earths atmosphere. Some scientists believe
that when cosmic ray levels are low, more low
level clouds form, and this cools the Earth.
59
Research has verified a close connection between
cosmic rays and temperature. Studies of
dripstones in Oman for the period 7500-4500 BC
show a high degree of synchronicity between solar
activity and temperature development. Figure
modified after Neff et al. (2001)
60
Observation shows there is a correlation between
cosmic rays, and low altitude cloud formation.
Low level clouds reflect solar rays back into
space, cooling the Earths surface. Source
Svensmark
61
As more clouds form they cool the oceans and
later, atmospheric temperatures. Note the close
relationship between solar cycles, ocean surface
and atmospheric temperatures.
62
Low cloud cover has an impact on temperatures.
They cause them to cool.





David Archibald
63
This chart shows a close relationship between
solar magnetic activity, ( the AA Planetary
Geomagnetic Index), and ocean surface temperature
(NAO)
64
There is a strong relationship between solar
activity (sunspots) and the global surface
temperature. Source NOAA
65
Global atmospheric temperatures have not
increased for 15 years according to the UK Met
Office. The trend shows cooling.
66
The UK Met Office and NASA predict that there is
a 92 chance that low solar activity will
continue for the next several decades and will be
as low as the time period of the Dalton and
Maunder Minimums, periods when global
temperatures were significantly lower than
today. Source Livingston and Penn Solar Cycle
Amplitude Estimate
67
What will global temperatures do in the next
20-30 years?
  • Never in the past has CO2 been a significant
    factor in determining temperature on Earth.
  • The Pacific and Atlantic surface temperatures run
    in roughly 30 year cycles (PDO, AMO), dominated
    by periods of cooling or warming. They have been
    in a warm cycle the past three decades and are
    currently transitioning towards their cool phase.
    These cycles are closely linked with solar
    activity.
  • Solar activity was very strong in the 1980s and
    early 1990s but has weakened since. Low solar
    activity is expected to continue for the next
    several decades.
  • If the past is a barometer of the future, overall
    global temperatures should noticeably cooler in
    the next twenty to thirty years. This cooling has
    already begun.

68
The Thames River last froze solid in London in
1814. Frost fairs were often held on the river
during the Little Ice Age. We could see the
Thames freeze once again due to declining solar
activity.
69
We could also see the return of the frozen canals
of the Netherlands, such as those depicted in the
stories of Hans Christian Anderson.
70
Conclusions
  • The earths current warming trend started in the
    mid 1700s with the end of the Little Ice Age,
    long before CO2 was a factor.
  • Until we understand the natural forces that
    impact climate, models cannot be relied upon to
    predict future temperatures with accuracy
  • CO2 does not have much direct impact on
    temperature
  • Positive feedbacks caused by rising levels of CO2
    have not been observed
  • Rising CO2 levels have a beneficial impact on
    plant growth
  • There is little loss of overall global polar ice,
    though some slow melting is normal. The melting
    of Arctic ice has no impact on sea level
  • Sea levels have been rising for thousands of
    years, and some rise is normal
  • Global hurricane intensity is at fifty year lows.

71
Conclusions
  • Global atmospheric temperatures have been cooling
    slightly for ten years or more. There has been no
    statistically significant global warming since
    1995 even though CO2 levels are rising.
  • Polar bear populations are growing
  • Solar activity and temperature are closely
    linked. Todays century low solar activity is
    causing temperatures to drop. Temperatures could
    fall as quickly as the 70s cooling scare but
    they could become colder and last longer. This
    would cause the loss of several weeks in the
    growing season on both ends and result in
    reduced crop production. (David Archibald)
  • Cold periods are much worse for humanity than
    warm ones.
  • Cold periods in the past have been ones of
    famine, disease, death and political instability.
  • Man has little impact on global temperatures.


  • ( David Archibald)

72
  • For more information
  • www.isthereglobalwarming.com
  • www.wattsupwiththat.com
  • www.icecap.us
  • www.friendsofscience.org
  • Contact author
  • Geoffrey Pohanka
  • 1772 Ritchie Station Court
  • Capitol Heights, MD 20743
  • geoff_at_isthereglobalwarming.com
  • (this presentation may be duplicated
    so long as it is not used for profit or
    commercial purposes)
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