Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change in (AIACC)

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Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to
Climate Change in (AIACC)

• Neil Leary
• Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Workshop on
• Climate Change Impacts and Integrated Assessment
• July 29 - August 7, 2002

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Implementing, Executing Collaborating Agencies

• UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
• Global SysTem for Analysis, Research and Training
  (START)
• Third World Academy of Sciences (TWAS)
• Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)

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AIACC Funding Sources

• Global Environment Facility (GEF)
• Canadian International Development Agency (CIDA)
• US Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA)

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AIACC Objectives

• Advance scientific understanding
• Of climate change I, A V in developing country
  regions.
• Build and enhance scientific technical capacity
• In developing countries to investigate I, A V
  and participate in international scientific
  assessments.
• Generate and communicate information
• Useful for adaptation planning and action and for
  preparation of National Communications under
  UNFCCC.

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AIACC Activities

• Peer reviewed grants for regional studies
• Project development training workshops
• Regional workshops
• Thematic workshops
• Ongoing technical support mentoring
• Facilitation of peer review publication
• Synthesis

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AIACC Regional Studies in N W Africa
Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia Agriculture Water Historical impacts of variability Crop modeling future impacts Irrigation water SD Adaptations
Sudan Human settlements Agriculture Vulnerability to climatic hazards Food security Environmental mgt adaptations
Nigeria Agriculture Crop modeling future impacts Seasonal forecasts
Nigeria, Mali Rural settlements Agriculture Vuln.of demog. groups to drought Impact thresholds, risk analysis Adaptations
West Africa (0-30oN, 15oW-20oE) Climate Diag. eval. of GCM projections Statistical dynamical downscaling for W. Africa
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AIACC Regional Studies in Southern Africa
South Africa Biodiversity Predictive models of plant animal responses to climate Adaptation to conserve biodiversity
Malawi, Mozambique, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Tanzania Agriculture Water Land-use Integrated assessment (MIMOSA) Primary focus on land-use
Botswana Agriculture Water Land-use Present water, food conditions Int. Assess. of future impacts Adaptations
South Africa, Gambia Water Agriculture Benefit-cost analysis of adaptations
Sub-Saharan Africa Climate Diag. eval. of GCM projections Stat. dyn. downscaling for sub-Saharan Africa
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AIACC Regional Studies in Asia
Mongolia Agriculture Rangelands Water Trends in vulnerability to climate Modeling grassland, crop, water impacts Adaptations
Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam Water Aquatic/riparian ecosystems Vulnerability to hydrologic changes extremes Adaptations
Sri Lanka Plantation agriculture Model tea coconut responses to climate variation change Social economic impacts Adaptations
Philippines, Indonesia Water Agriculture Ecosystems Land-use/cover changes, forest, water, agriculture impacts Social economic impacts Adaptations
China Water Agriculture Land-use IA to identify social vulnerabilities Multi-criteria evaluation of adaptatons
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AIACC Regional Studies in Latin America
Central America Water Agriculture Coastal Vulnerabilities to extreme events climate change Adaptations
Argentina, Uruguay Agriculture Impacts on mixed grain/grazed agricultural systems Adaptations
Argentina, Uruguay Human settlements Coastal natural resources Vulnerabilities to tide floods, storm, sea level rise, climate change Adaptations
Uruguay Estuarine ecosystem Fisheries Water Vulnerabilities of estuary human uses Adaptations
Mexico, Argentina Agriculture Water Rural settlements Farm level analysis of risk mgt. And adaptation Effects of existing/past policies on vulnerabilities
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AIACC Regional Studies in Small Islands
Caribbean Human Health Investigate/model health responses to climate (dengue) Future health impacts of climate change Adaptations
Fiji, Cook Islands Water Coastal infrastructure Natural resources IAM, extended to include human dimensions Adaptations
Seychelles Comoros Tourism Natural resources Direct impacts of climate change SLR on tourism Indirect impacts on tourism from effects on natural resources Adaptations
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AIACC Regional Studies Highly Heterogeneous

• Not a research program with specific objectives,
  approaches, scenarios, models dictated from above
• Different objectives determine relative emphases
  of I, A, V in the regional studies
• Objectives drive choices of approaches, methods,
  models, scenarios
• Choices are made by the regional study PIs and
  their teams

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Commonalities among regional studies

• All studies contribute to broad objectives of
  AIACC
• Advance scientific understanding of I,A, V
• Build scientific/technical capacity
• Generate communicate information for adaptation
• Each study addresses adaptation
• Was a requirement in grant review approval
• Most studies incorporate stakeholder participation

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Vulnerability vs. impact assessment

• Priority given to adaptation in AIACC, leading to
  emphasis on vulnerability in many of the studies
• Vulnerability capacity to be harmed by a hazard
  (e.g. climate change)

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Two aspects of vulnerability

• Exposure to a hazard or set of hazards
• Capacity of exposed individual, community, system
  to
• Anticipate
• Cope with,
• Resist and
• Recover from
• impacts of the hazard(s)

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Impact Assessment

• Tends to focus on exposure
• Careful attention to scenarios of climate change
  that characterize the hazards to which
  people/systems will be exposed.
• Capacities of people/systems not emphasized
• Often simplistic, ad hoc treatment
• Impact studies beginning to use multiple
  socioeconomic scenarios to address

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Vulnerability Assessment

• Focuses on capacities of people, communities,
  systems that determine impacts of exposures
• identify factors, processes that enhance or
  degrade capacities
• Shed light on effective adaptation
• Hazard exposure often characterized by
  incremental scenarios
• Informed by GCM, RCM projections

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Common Ground for V I Analyses

• VA needed to provide more sophisticated
  understanding representation of
• Capacities of people, communities, systems
• Adaptation processes and effectiveness
• Dimensions of the hazard that matter most
• Impact models can integrate info about capacities
  with predicted exposures
• Quantitative estimates of impacts for different
  scenarios of capacities and exposures
• Quantitative risk analysis

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AIACC Synthesis

• Regional studies are expected to be completed by
  end of 2004.
• How can we synthesize work of 23 studies that
• Ask different questions
• Use different conceptual frameworks
• Use different scenarios for climate,
  socioeconomic etc
• Use different methods and models?

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Mechanisms for synthesis

• Regional workshops
• Thematic synthesis workshops
• Public web-based information network

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AIACC Regional Workshops

• Two rounds of regional workshops planned
• Feb-Apr 2003
• Aug-Sept 2004
• Opportunity for study teams to
• Present discuss preliminary results with other
  researchers in their region
• Share expertise, collaborate to solve common
  problems
• Lay groundwork for synthesis

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AIACC Regional Workshops

• Develop broad cross-cutting questions on issues
  common to many individual studies
• Distribute before 1st round of workshops, refine
  via list-serve discussion
• Ask teams to address the questions in their
  presentations
• Discuss commonalities, differences
• Plan next steps
• Repeat process for 2nd round of workshops
• Same questions?

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Thematic Synthesis Workshops

• Series of 3 or 4 small workshops in 2005
• Each to be focused on a cross-cutting question or
  theme
• Price of admission a paper on the theme
• Objectives of each workshop
• Present, discuss, revise individual papers
• Write a joint synthesis paper
• Publish individual synthesis papers as package
• Seeking financial support for these.

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Web-based Information Network

• AIACC regional study database
• Ready access to information, data, results from
  each regional study
• Electronic working paper series
• Guided Web discussions
• Develop, refine cross-cutting questions
• Discussion of cross-cutting questions
• Discussion of other issues (working papers,
  methods, models, data, training opportunities etc)

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Illustrative cross-cutting questions

• Are there spatial, demographic or other patterns
  to who is vulnerable?
• What are the critical determinants of
  vulnerability to climate hazards now? Are they
  the same determinants for vulnerability to
  climate change in the future?

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Illustrative cross-cutting questions

• What trends are likely to diminish (enhance)
  future vulnerability to climatic hazards and
  climate change?
• What policies or adaptation strategies can lessen
  long-term vulnerability to climate change and
  near-term vulnerability to climatic hazards?