Workshop on the Aviation Operational Measures for Fuel and Emissions Reduction

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NET INCOME
U.S. Scheduled Airlines
Billions
5
4
3
2
1
0
-1
EXPECTED
-2
-3
-4
9/11 IMPACT
-5
-6
-7
-8
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
3
TRAFFIC GROWTH
Percent Change in Revenue Passenger Miles
15
International
Domestic
10
5
0
Y2K - 6.5 Million Passengers
-5
J 1999
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J 2000
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J 2001
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
4
TRAFFIC GROWTH
Percent Change in Revenue Passenger Miles
International
10
0
Domestic
-10
-20
-30
-40
Jan 1999
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Jan 2000
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Jan 2001
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
Jan 2002
F
M
A

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BLOCK HOURS PER DAY PER AIRCRAFT
Passenger Service
10.5
10.0
9.5
9.0
8.5
- 15
8.0
91 1
92 1
93 1
94 1
95 1
96 1
97 1
98 1
99 1


00 1

01 1

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Jet Airplanes vs. Capacity (ASMs)
U.S. Airlines
AIRPLANES
ASMs
Thousands
7,000
1000
6,500
950
6,000
900
5,500
850
5,000
800
4,500
750
Aircraft
4,000
700
ASMs
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
2001
2000
1999
1998
Source World Jet Inventory
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AIRCRAFT ORDERS AND OPTIONS
ATA U.S. Members
2,748
1,937
Options
Firm Orders
Dec 90
Jun 91
Dec 91
Jun 92
Dec 92
Jun 93
Dec 93
Jun 94
Dec 94
Jun 95
Dec 95
Jun 96
Dec 96
Jun 97
Dec 97
Jun 98
Dec 98
Jun 99
Dec 99
Jun 00
Dec 00
Jun 01
Dec 01
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EXPECTED DELIVERY DATES
ATA Members
Options
Firm Orders
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
12
U.S. AIRLINE 2001 JET FLEET
By Year of Delivery to Original Owner
700
6,507 Aircraft
600
500
400
300
200
100
5,538 Aircraft (excl Regional Jets)
0
lt65
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
1966
1970
1974
1978
1982
1986
1990
1994
1998
Source Jet Information Services
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AVERAGE AGE OF FLEET
15.0
14.5
14.0
13.5
13.0
12.5
12.0
1990
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
Source The Airline Monitor
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FUEL PRODUCTIVITY
Passenger Miles per Gallon
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
00

71
73
75
77
79
81
83
85
87
89
91
93
95
97
99
01
15
JET FUEL PRICE TRENDS
Excludes taxes
Cents per Gallon
per Barrel
105
35
90
30
JET FUEL (Left Scale)
75
25
60
20
Forecast
WTI
45
15
(Right Scale)
30
10
Jan 1996


Oct
Jan 1997

Jul
Jan 1998
Jul
Jan 1999
Jul
Jan 2000
Jul
Jan 2001
Jul
Jan 2002
Jul
Apr
Jul



Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
Apr
Oct
16
LABOR COSTS PER EMPLOYEE
Wages and Benefits
75.5
Thousands
75
71.9
1986-2001 Compensation Annual Growth Rate
3.6 CPI Annual Growth Rate
3.2
68.6
70
64.8
65
60
55
50
42.4
45
40
35
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002e
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
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PRICE TRENDS
System Revenue per Passenger Mile
Cents
1,4.0
2002
2001
1,3.5
2000
2000
1,3.0
1,2.5
5 Bill.
1,2.0
2001
1,1.5
2002
2001 - 7.6 2000 4.4 1999 - 1.3
1,1.0
1,0.5
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec

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REVENUE TRENDS
Business vs. Personal/PleasurePreliminary Data
Percent
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
Business
Personal
-60
J
F
M
A
M
J
J
A
S
O
N
D
J
F
2002
2001
19
BUSINESS VS. PERSONAL / PLEASURE
2001 Revenue Traffic Shares2001
Business
Revenue
Traffic
Preliminary Data
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OUTLOOK
21
CURRENT TRAFFIC TRENDS COMPARED TO GULF WAR
Percent Change
20
Gulf War Intl
10
FEB ?91
0
Gulf War System
-10
-20
-30
SEP ?01
-40

2001
1990/91 System
1990/91 International
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TRAFFIC GROWTH COMPARED TO GDP
And Forecast for 2001 and 2002
GDP Percent
Traffic Percent
5
10
0
0
-5
-10
-10
-20
-15
-30
1993 1
1994 1
1995 1
1996 1
1997 1
1998 1



1999 1
2000 1
2001 1
2002 1

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NET PROFIT MARGIN
U.S. INDUSTRY VS. AIRLINES
Percent
U.S. INDUSTRY
5
AIRLINES
0
-5
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02e
24
CASH FLOW
Four Quarter Moving Total
Majors and Nationals
Billions
14
12
10
FORECAST
8
6
4
2
0
-2
02/4
02/3
02/2
02/1
01/4
01/3
01/2
01/1
00/4
00/3
00/2
00/1
99/4
99/3
99/2
99/1
98/4
98/3
98/2
98/1
97/4
97/3
97/2
97/1
96/4
96/3
96/2
96/1
95/4
95/3
95/2
95/1
94/4
94/3
94/2
94/1
93/4
93/3
93/2
93/1
92/4
92/3
92/2
92/1
91/4
91/3
91/2
91/1
90/4
90/3
90/2
90/1
89/4
89/3
89/2
89/1
88/4
88/3
88/2
88/1
87/4
87/3
87/2
87/1
86/4
86/3
86/2
86/1
85/4
85/3
85/2
85/1
84/4
84/3
84/2
84/1
83/4
83/3
83/2
83/1
82/4
82/3
82/2
82/1
81/4
81/3
81/2
81/1
80/4
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AIRLINE BALANCE SHEETS
Debt as a Percent of Total Capital
Percent
70
AIRLINES
60
50
U.S. INDUSTRY
40
30
20
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002e
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001p
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