Integration%20of%20a%20Mesoscale%20Ensemble%20System%20into%20National%20Weather%20Service%20Hydro-Meteorological%20Operations - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Integration%20of%20a%20Mesoscale%20Ensemble%20System%20into%20National%20Weather%20Service%20Hydro-Meteorological%20Operations

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Title: Integration%20of%20a%20Mesoscale%20Ensemble%20System%20into%20National%20Weather%20Service%20Hydro-Meteorological%20Operations


1
Integration of a Mesoscale Ensemble System into
National Weather Service Hydro-Meteorological
Operations
  • Operational Aspects of the
  • COMET Collaborative Project

2
Participants
  • Stony Brook University
  • Brian Colle, Mike Erickson
  • NWS New York City
  • Jeff Tongue, Nancy Furbush, Matt Sardi, Nelson
    Vaz, Adrienne Leptich
  • NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly
  • Al Cope
  • NWS Eastern Region Headquarters
  • Josh Watson
  • NWS MARFC
  • Joe Ostrowski

3
Objective
  • Integrate data from the Stony Brook University
    Mesoscale Ensemble System (MES)
  • Into AWIPS.
  • Into the Site Specific Hydrologic Predictor
    (SSHP) application.

4
Why ?
  • Allow forecasters to perform mesoscale stochastic
    hydrology on small, fast responding basins.

5
How??
  • Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble
    Data to assimilate via AWIPS D2D (GFE) and the
    Web.
  • Provide WFO Forecasters with Mesoscale Ensemble
    Data to integrate into the Site Specific
    Hydrologic Predictor.

6
Data
  • Web
  • AWIPS
  • GFE

7
Web http//chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphic
s.html
8
http//chaos.msrc.sunysb.edu/NEUS/nwp_graphics.htm
l
9
Precip Plumes
10
AWIPS
  • 00Z 12/36 km 14 Member Ensemble data
  • Available 11 UTC
  • 36 Hour Forecast
  • Volume Browser
  • Members
  • Means/Standard Deviation
  • Probability of Exceedence

11
AWIPS
12
AWIPS QPF Members
13
AWIPS - Mean
14
AWIPS Temperature Members
15
AWIPS Wind Members
16
AWIPS - Concerns
  • Installation Instructions are Available.
  • Still needs some clean-up.
  • New build issues.
  • Stony Brook is not an Operational Center.

17
SSHP
  • Integrating Stony Brook ESP into SSHP
  • Deterministically From the AWIPS GFE
  • Stochastically From the Stony Brook EPS

18
Accessing SSHP
19
1. GFE QPF - Deterministic
20
Convert 6 hour NDFD QPF to RR2 text product for
use with SSHP
Note that GFE 6-hr Pcpn is evenly distributed
21
In SSHP
  • Basins
  • Lodi - Saddle R.
  • Gardiner Wallkill R.
  • HoHoKus Hohokus Brook
  • Springfield Rahway R.
  • Beacon Falls Naugatuck R.
  • Southbury Pomperaug R.
  • Yantic Yantic R.

22
2. EPS into SSHP (under development)
  • Experimenting with the Lodi Basin.
  • Stony Brook University is producing hourly
    resolution basin averaged precipitation.
  • RR2 Product (ftped)
  • Mean
  • Worst Case scenario
  • Individual member data

23
Ensemble mean accumulated 1 hr forecast for hour
32
Ensemble mean for the Lodi Basin
24
GFE QPF
SBU Ensemble Members
Mean Average
Worst case
25
Selecting Basin QPF in SSHP
26
Example Worse Case in SSHP
27
Future Work
  • Automate the FTP of Data
  • Train Staff
  • Modify SSHP with help of OH to display ensemble
    hydrographs

28
The Future in SSHP
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