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Use of Systems Analysis

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Use of Systems Analysis to Assess Progress toward Goals and Technology Impacts Bill Gilbert NASA Langley Research Center November 15, 1999 – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Use of Systems Analysis


1
Use of Systems Analysis to Assess Progress
toward Goals and Technology Impacts Bill
Gilbert NASA Langley Research Center November
15, 1999
2
Outline
  • Aerospace Systems, Concepts, and Analysis
    Competency
  • Programs/Technology Contribution to Goals
  • Aviation System Analysis Capability

3
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4
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5
Atmospheric Sciences Competency Helps Assess
Aviations Impact on Environment
Emission Measurements
Assessment Modeling
Radiative effects of Contrails
6
The Three Pillars for Success
(Aero-Space Technology Enterprise)
7
Three Pillars Aero-Space Goals
NOISE Reduce the perceived noise levels of future
aircraft by a factor of two from todays
subsonic aircraft within 10 years, and by a
factor of four within 20 years.
SAFETY Reduce the aircraft accident rate by a
factor of five within 10 years, and by a factor
of 10 within 20 years.
EMISSIONS Reduce emissions of future aircraft by
a factor of three within 10 years, and by a
factor of five within 20 years.
COST OF AIR TRAVEL Reduce the cost of air travel
by 25 within 10 years, and by 50 within 20
years.
CAPACITY While maintaining safety, triple the
aviation system throughput, in all weather
conditions, within 10 years.
GENERAL AVIATION Invigorate the general aviation
industry, delivering 10,000 aircraft annually
within 10 years, and 20,000 aircraft annually
within 20 years.
SUPERSONIC TRAVEL Reduce the travel time to the
Far East and Europe by 50 percent within 20
years, and do so at todays subsonicticket
prices.
DESIGN TEST Provide next generation design
tools and experimental aircraft to increase
design confidence,and cut the development cycle
time for aircraft in half.
IN-SPACE TRANS. Reduce the cost of interorbital
transfer by an order of magnitude within 15
years, and reduce travel time for planetary
missions by a factor of two within 15 years, and
by an order of magnitude within 25 years.
SPACE ACCESS Reduce the payload cost to low-Earth
orbit by an order of magnitude, from 10,000 to
1,000 per pound, within 10 years, and by an
additional order of magnitude within 25 years.
8
Mapping Programs and Technology Results into Goals
Progress Towards the Aero-Space Enterprise
Goals is Achieved by the Combined
Contributions of -- Base Technology Research
-- Focused Program Technology
Development Contributions of Focused Programs
and Base Technologies are Crosscutting Among
the Goals Progress Towards the Goals May Be
Achieved with Crosscutting Technologies and
Not Solely by Dedicated Program Elements
System Analysis -- Correlates Technologies
with Goals -- Analyzes Contribution of
Correlated Technologies Towards Goals
9
Enterprise Intercenter Systems Analysis Team
Glenn
Ames
Langley
Dryden
Marshall
Kennedy
10
Assessment of OAT Programs
Vehicle/Fleet Team
Program Objectives
  • Reference Vehicles
  • Subsonic transports
  • CTR/commuter/rotorcraft
  • HSCT
  • GA
  • Single Stage to Orbit
  • Two Stage to Orbit
  • Manufacturing Market
  • Economics
  • Aircraft Emissions Noise

?SFC
?Aero Design Time
?L/D
?All Weather Operations
?Weight
?MTBF
?Labor Hours
Reference Vehicles
Reference Fleets
Reference Operations/Airports
Reference Air Traffic Mgmt System
Outcome Goals Teams
11
BASELINE AIRCRAFT
12
Notional Concept of a Safety Data Analysis
Framework
Technologies/Interventions
  • Time Slice (2007, 2022)
  • Fleet projection
  • Accident projection

Option 1
Option 1
Option 1
Option N

Accident Rates (Metrics) Additional
Metrics Fatal Accident Rates Number of
Fatalities Number of Injuries
13
Aviation Safety Goal Analysis
  • 34 Technology Datasheets considered in Safety
    Goal Analysis
  • -- 20 from Aviation Safety Program Office
  • -- 2 from Airframe Systems
  • -- 6 from Propulsion Systems
  • -- 1 from Advanced Subsonic Technologies
  • -- 5 from Aviation Operations Systems
  • Approximately 47 Different Causal Factor
    Impacts
  • Technology impacts to different aircraft
    classes analyzed separately (Transports,
    Commuters, GA, Rotorcraft)

14
Aviation Safety Goal Analysis - Transport
Aircraft (Part 121)
Goal
Approach
  • Reduce the aircraft accident rate by a factor of
    5 within 10 years, and by a factor of 10 within
    25 years.
  • U.S. only, 1990 to 1996, fatal non-fatal
    accident NTSB data used to determine percentage
    of accidents/fatalities/injuries avoided due to
    technology implementation
  • U.S. fleet projections based on FAA and DOT
    forecasts
  • 100 overlap in accident coverage allowed due to
    multiple technologies impacting individual
    accidents consistent with AvSP philosophy of
    increased reliability through redundant
    technology impacts

Metrics
  • Accident Rate (Fatal Non-Fatal Combined)
  • Fatal Accident Rate
  • Number of Fatalities
  • Number of Injuries

15
Aviation Safety Goal Analysis - Commuter Aircraft
(Part 135, sch. and non-sch.)
Goal
Approach
  • Reduce the aircraft accident rate by a factor of
    5 within 10 years, and by a factor of 10 within
    25 years.
  • U.S. only, 1990 to 1996, fatal non-fatal
    accident NTSB data used to determine percentage
    of accidents/fatalities/injuries avoided due to
    technology implementation
  • U.S. fleet projections based on FAA and DOT
    forecasts
  • 100 overlap in accident coverage allowed due to
    multiple technologies impacting individual
    accidents consistent with AvSP philosophy of
    increased reliability through redundant
    technology impacts

Metrics
  • Accident Rate (Fatal Non-Fatal Combined)
  • Fatal Accident Rate
  • Number of Fatalities
  • Number of Injuries

16
Summary of NASA Programs Projected Progress
Toward the Goals (end of FY98)
10 Year Projections
100
75
Toward the Goal
NOx
GA
50
25
CO2
non-GA
0
Safety (w/out AvSP)
Emissions
Noise
Capacity
Affordability
Travel Time
General
Development
Aviation
Cycle
20 Year Projections
100
Time
75
NOx
Toward the Goal
GA
50
CO2
25
non-GA
0
Safety (w/out AvSP)
Emissions
Noise
Capacity
Affordability
General
Development
Surcharge
Aviation
Cycle
Travel Time
17
http//www.asac.lmi.org
  • Assess advanced aviation technology impacts on
    the integrated aviation system
  • Technical Progress and Value
  • Technology Cost Effectiveness
  • Technology Investment Portfolio

18
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19
ASAC Ties The Integrated Aviation System Together
Air Carrier Investment Air Carrier Network
Cost Flight Segment Cost
Airline Cost/Benefit Ops Air Cargo
Cost/Demand DOT Databases
Airline
Functional Analysis Airport Capacity Airport
Delay Approximate Network Delay AATT Decision
Support Tools Airport Databases
System
Aircraft Synthesis (ACSYNT) Flight
Optimization System (FLOPS) Reference Aircraft
Configurations
Integrated Noise Impact
System Safety Tolerance Analysis
3
20
ASAC Data Flow
Airport Capacity Demand Air Carrier Cost
Functions Route Structure
Efficient Routes, Fleet
ATM Demand
Characteristics
Costs
Constraints
Demand
  • Air Traffic Management Regulation
  • ATC
  • Safety
  • Environment

FAA Air Traffic Management
Aircraft System Technologies
Aviation Industry
21
Users of ASAC are Increasing Each Year
  • User Organizations
  • 6 U.S. Government (e.g., NATO, Defense, U.S.
    Intl Trade Commission, FAA)
  • 4 Operations (AA, NWA, UAL, USAirways)
  • 29 Manufacturing/Engineering (e.g., BAC, TRW,
    PW, LM,ARINC, Cessna Textron, Draper)
  • 13 Academia (e.g., Johns Hopkins APL, Princeton,
    GaTech, Berkeley, MIT, Geo Mason)
  • 6 International (e.g., AirServices Australia,
    Eurocontrol)

11
22
ASAC Customers Applications
  • American Airlines
  • Free Flight Preserving Airline Opportunity, 97
  • United Airlines
  • B-727 Navigation Upgrade, 97
  • Pratt Whitney
  • PW8000 Product Launch Decision Support, 97 - 98
  • Boeing
  • CNS Study Group, 98 - 99
  • Transportation Research Board
  • Economic Impacts of Air Traffic Congestion, 98
  • CNS/ATM Focused Team (CAFT)
  • TAP/AATT Study Results, 98
  • NASA
  • Dallas-Ft. Worth CTAS Operations Safety
    Assessment, 98
  • Noise Impact Assessment for Environmental
    Program Planning, 99
  • TAP/AATT Technology Assessments, 98 - 99

23
Summary
  • The OAT ten technology goals were chosen to
    address aero-space industry technology needs
  • Validity of our technology assessments depends on
    fidelity of our aviation system models
  • We need your continued support in keeping the
    models relevant
  • As our customers and partners, we encourage you
    to interact with us and provide feedback on
    technology focus and analysis methods
  • Tour
  • Breakout sessions
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