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Mars Exploration Program Response to: Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022

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Because the MSR campaign will be conducted as part of the Joint Mars Exploration Program with the European Space Agency, ... Created Date: 6/15/2011 2:58:25 PM ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Mars Exploration Program Response to: Vision and Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade 2013-2022


1
Mars Exploration ProgramResponse toVision and
Voyages for Planetary Science in the Decade
2013-2022
  • Michael Meyer
  • MEPAG June 2011
  • Lead Scientist, Mars Exploration Program

2
What Is A Decadal Survey?
  • Once every ten years, at the request of NASA and
    the National Science Foundation, the National
    Research Council carries out a decadal survey
    for planetary science.
  • The decadal survey involves very broad
    participation from the planetary science
    community.
  • It is the primary scientific input that NASA and
    NSF use to design their future programs of
    planetary science and exploration. (The last
    decadal survey brought us the New Frontiers
    program.)
  • This decadal survey applies to the decade from
    2013 to 2022.

3
Process and Timeline
Community White Papers
Mission Studies and Cost Estimation
Inner Planets 3, Boulder Oct 26-28, 2009
Inner Planets 1, DC Aug 26-28, 2009
Inner Planets 2, Irvine Oct 26-28, 2009
Mars 1, Tempe Sep 9-11, 2009
Mars 3, Boulder Apr 14-16, 2010
Mars 2, Pasadena Nov 4-6, 2009
Steering Group 5, DC Aug 3-4, 2010
Steering Group 4, DC Jul 13-15, 2010
Steering Group 3, Irvine Feb 22-24, 2010
Steering Group Conference Calls
Steering Group 2, Irvine Nov 16-18, 2009
Primitive Bodies 3, Knoxville Apr 26-28, 2010
Primitive Bodies 1, DC Sep 9-11, 2009
Steering Group 1, DC Jul 6-8. 2009
Primitive Bodies 2, Irvine Oct 28-30, 2009
Giant Planets 3, Boston May 4-6,2010
Giant Planets 1, DC Aug 24-26, 2009
Giant Planets 2, Irvine Oct 26-28, 2009
Satellites 3, Boulder Apr 12-14, 2010
Satellites 1, DC Aug 24-26, 2009
Satellites 2, Irvine Sep 21-23, 09
4
Summary Vision Voyages
  • This is a time of great promise in the
    exploration of the solar system, but also a time
    of serious budget constraints.
  • The recommended program is science-driven, and
    will enable progress across the breadth of solar
    system research.
  • A mixed portfolio of small, medium, and large
    missions is recommended through the decade.
  • Effective international collaboration is required
    for success of the program.
  • A serious effort has been made to evaluate the
    technical readiness, risk, and cost of all
    recommended missions.
  • The planetary decadal survey has involved broad
    input from the planetary science community, hard
    work by the study centers and consultants, and
    the strong cooperation of NASA, NSF, and
    professional societies.

5
Key Recommendations
  • Increase the NASA planetary RA budget by 5
    above the total finally approved FY11
    expenditures in the first year, and then by 1.5
    above inflation each successive year.
  • Continue missions in development, and missions in
    flight subject to senior review.
  • Continue the Discovery program at its current
    funding level, adjusted for inflation, with a
    cost cap per mission also adjusted for inflation
    (i.e., to 500 million FY15).
  • Assure a regular, predictable, and rapid (
    24-month) cadence of Discovery AOs and
    selections.
  • Establish a planetary exploration technology
    development program, funded at 6-8 of the total
    NASA PSD budget.

6
Mission Prioritization
  • Criteria
  • Science return per dollar
  • Programmatic balance
  • Technological readiness
  • Availability of appropriate trajectories
  • Process
  • All priorities and recommendations were guided
    strongly by community inputs.
  • Prioritization within the subject area of each
    panel was done by the panel.
  • Cross-panel prioritization was done by the
    steering group.
  • All priorities and recommendations were arrived
    at by achieving strong consensus.

7
Cost and Technical Evaluations
  • After studies were completed, high-priority
    mission candidates were subjected to a detailed
    Cost and Technical Evaluation (CATE) by Aerospace
    Corporation.
  • CATE estimates are based on multiple
    methodologies, including actual costs of
    analogous past missions, to avoid the optimism
    inherent in other cost estimation processes.
  • The result is some sticker shock! But cost
    realism was demanded by the Statement of Task.
  • The scope of each recommended mission cannot be
    permitted to increase significantly beyond what
    was assumed during the CATE process.
  • All costs are in FY15.

8
Assumed Funding Wedge
(Data and projections provided by PSD)
9
Planetary Div. Comparative Funding
ProfilesDecadal, FY11, and FY12 Requests
Presidents FY11 Budget inflation (Decadal
planning budget)
RA
Presidents FY12 Budget
Disco
NF
Lunar
Assumed Flat Budget
Notional Budget in RY
Mars
Outer Planets
10
Recommendations and Mars ResponsesRecommendation
1
  • Recommendation
  • The Decadal Survey recommends that the highest
    priority for the decade 2013-2022 is the Mars
    surface science and sample caching mission that
    begins a NASA-ESA Mars Sample Return campaign.
  • The mission concept envisioned two separate
    roversa NASA sample-caching rover and the ESA
    ExoMars roverlanded on a pallet by the sky
    crane entry, descent, and landing (EDL) system
    derived MSL.
  • The Decadal Survey recommended that the MAX-C
    mission fly only if it can be conducted for a
    cost to NASA of no more than approximately 2.5
    billion FY2015.
  • Strong ESA participation in the Mars Sample
    Return campaign (beginning with MAX-C) is
    critical the campaign cannot proceed without it.

11
Response 1
  • Response
  • The NASA-ESA Joint Mars Exploration Program is
    currently studying a re-scoped 2018 Mars mission
    concept to achieve the science and technology
    objectives of both NASA and ESA.
  • A significant cost reduction can be achieved with
    a single rover design that deletes the landed
    pallet and avoids a major redesign of the
    MSL-derived EDL system, while maintaining the
    NASA-ESA partnership for the Mars Sample Return
    campaign
  • The joint ESA-NASA rover currently under study is
    baselined to retain the ExoMars Pasteur
    scientific payload and subsurface drill. It is
    also baselined to accommodate the NASA sample
    handling and caching system, along with the
    scientific instruments needed to select an
    outstanding sample.
  • Benefits of the joint rover concept
  • the analytical capability provided by the Pasteur
    payload may be utilized in the selection of
    sample suites for the cache.
  • By retaining the mobility touchdown approach of
    the MSL EDL system, the joint rover concept
    enables the Pasteur payload to conduct
    investigations across a greater range of terrain
  • Maybe the ability to cache the ESA subsurface
    drill sample.

12
Recommendation Response 2
  • Recommendation
  • The Decadal Survey recommends, based on its high
    science value and its relatively low cost to
    NASA, flight of the Mars Trace Gas Orbiter in
    2016 as long as this NASA providing the launch
    vehicle, ESA providing the orbiter, and a joint
    science payload division of responsibilities
    with ESA is preserved.
  • Response
  • The joint NASA /ESA 2016 Mars mission, the
    ExoMars/Trace Gas Orbiter (TGO), has advanced on
    both sides.
  • The NASA portion of the 2016 mission is now in
    Phase-A.
  • The original division of responsibility between
    ESA and NASA for the 2016 mission has remained
    stable since the July 2009 Bi-Lateral meeting
    between ESA and NASA

13
Recommendation 3
  • Recommendation
  • NASA should make significant technology
    investments in the Mars Sample Return Lander,
    Mars Sample Return Orbiter during this decade,
    and that NASA should establish an aggressive,
    focused technology development and validation
    initiativeduring 2013-2022, and recommends
    investing in
  • A Mars Ascent Vehicle (MAV) precision entry,
    descent and landing and rover mobility for the
    MSR-Lander
  • Rendezvous and capture and the Earth entry
    vehicle (EEV) for the MSR-Orbiter and
  • Planetary protection technologies for all
    elements, including investment in the Sample
    Receiving Facility.

14
Response 3
  • Response
  • The Mars Exploration Program is continuing the
    current early investment in MAV technologies and,
    beginning in FY13, initiating a technology wedge
    to support the timely development of the other
    technologies required to complete the MSR
    campaign.
  • Because the MSR campaign will be conducted as
    part of the Joint Mars Exploration Program with
    the European Space Agency, the MSR Joint
    Engineering Working Group is determining which
    agency will lead specific technology
    developments.
  • The JEWG is also identifying areas in which both
    agencies need to invest to ensure a viable
    solution.

15
Recommendation Response 4
  • Recommend
  • The Decadal Survey recommends that well before
    sample return mission, NASA should establish a
    well-coordinated and integrated program for
    development of the next generation of laboratory
    instruments to be used in sample characterization
    and analysis of returned samples.
  • Response
  • The Mars Program has developed a proposal for an
    NRC study to include an analysis of technology
    needed for sample characterization and analysis
    within a Sample Return Facility.
  • The committee will consider whether all
    measurements can be done within the SRF and what
    investments should be done now to enable that
    instrumentation
  • Planetary Sciences has a program for development
    of laboratory instrumentation and advanced
    analytical techniques required for the complete
    analyses of the returned samples (Laboratory
    Analysis of Returned Samples).

16
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