Title: Poli 103A California Politics Moving On Up to Sacramento
1Poli 103A California PoliticsMoving On Up to
Sacramento
2The End of the Rainbow Wedge Issues and Their
Backlash
- A wedge issue is used by candidates of one party
to attract voters who usually support the other
party in effect, driving a wedge between the
opposition and its normal supporters. Cain and
MacDonald, p. 201. - A wedge can split the other party, a minority
group, or a group coalition.
3The End of the Rainbow Wedge Issues and Their
Backlash
- Passed by a 59-41 margin in 1994, Prop. 187
would have prevented state and local governments
from providing social services, education, and
non-emergency medical care to noncitizens. - It fueled Pete Wilsons dramatic comeback, with
36 of Democrats supporting it and 19 of Dems
supporting Wilson over Kathleen Brown. - Opposition to 187 was highest among Latinos
(77), Jews (55), and blacks and Asians (53).
4The End of the Rainbow Wedge Issues and Their
Backlash
- Passed by a 55-45 margin in 1996, Prop. 209
ended gender and race preferences by state and
local governments, in fields such as public
universities, public employment, and government
contracts. - Favored 51-36 by whites, opposed 57-27 by
Latinos, opposed 66-18 by blacks, and opposed
53-31 by Asians. - It failed to help Bob Dole as a wedge issue,
because it did not win many Democratic votes.
5The End of the Rainbow Wedge Issues and Their
Backlash
- Since the Prop. 187 campaign, Latino voters have
been energized Democrats. - The number of new citizens in the state jumped
from 178,000 in 1993-1994 to 515,000 in
1995-1996. - In 1996, 67 of newly registered Latinos voted,
up from 43 in 1994. - Latinos voted 73-21 Democratic in 1996, after
voting 52-40 Dem in 1992.
6Rainbows within Rainbows
7Rainbows within Rainbows
- LAs Jewish community has split into Valley
moderates, Westside liberals, and conservative
Iranian immigrants. - Black leadership split between Mark Ridley-Thomas
and Maxine Waters. - Latino splits between poorer, more recent
immigrants with ties to service labor
(Molinistas) and middle class with ties to
business (Eastside PRI)
8Rainbows within Rainbows
- In the 2001 mayoral race, the growth machine and
conservatives sat on the sidelines as Steve
Soboroff, Riordans protégé, failed to make the
run-off. - Jimmy Hahn narrowly defeated Antonio Villaraigosa
to win, claiming 59 of white voters, 80 of
blacks, 18 of Latinos, and 65 of Asians.
9Rainbows within Rainbows
- In 2005, Antonio Villaraigosa beat Hahn in a
rematch to become L.A.s first Latino mayor of
the modern era. - Hahns firing of African-American police chief
Bernard Parks cost him with the black community - Hahns successful opposition to Valley secession
hurt him with Valley voters - Villaraigosa the energizer bunny.
10Moving On Up to Sacramento
- The Necessary Conditions for Success
- External factors
- Internal factors
- Recent Gains and Losses in Minority
Representation - Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
11The Necessary Conditions for Success
- Fernando Guerra identifies the conditions
necessary to elect Latinos to important office in
California. - External factors are the general electoral
conditions outside of the control of the Latino
community. - Internal factors are under the effective
control of the Latino community, its leaders, and
organizations (Guerra, p. 444)
12The Necessary Conditions for Success External
Factors
- 1. Reapportionment new districts destabilize
incumbents, and the Voting Rights Act can redress
past vote dilution. - 2. Term Limits booting out incumbents allows
demographic trends to be reflected in election
results. - 3. Conventional wisdom about the tendencies of
minority voters. Changes in perception lag behind
changes in behavior.
13The Necessary Conditions for Success Internal
Factors
- 1. Political maturity of the community. To be an
effective voting block, it can take decades for a
group to age, naturalize, become natural-born,
and raise its socio-economic status. - African-American community is mature by age and
naturalization standards, gaining in
socioeconomic. - Some API groups are wealthy and have high rates
of citizenship, some have neither, some have one.
- Latinos are steadily becoming more political
mature in both respects, but have a way to go.
14The Necessary Conditions for Success Internal
Factors
- 2. Political maturity of organizations that are
not candidate or campaign specific. Groups like
the NAACP, MALDEF, NALEO, 80/20, and legislative
caucuses are mature, as are churches, ethnic
media, and unions. - 3. Political maturity of leadership. In the
early 1990s, leaders like Richard Polanco
selected and elected by recruiting candidates
and helping their campaigns.
15Recent Gains and Losses in Minority
Representation
16Recent Gains and Losses in Minority
Representation
17Recent Gains and Losses in Minority
Representation
- Latino, black, API, Jewish, and gay legislators
have also risen to leadership positions in the
Legislature - Willie Browns 15-year reign as Speaker, and Herb
Wessons recent term. - Cruz Bustamante, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Fabian
Nunez speakerships. - Speaker Bob Hertzberg, Majority Whip Wilma Chan,
and Appropriations Chair Carole Migden and
Judiciary Chair Sheila Keuhl.
18Recent Gains and Losses in Minority
Representation
19Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
- Descriptive representation comes when members
of a minority group are elected to office. - Substantive representation comes when a
minority community elects a candidate of its
choosing who pursues policy goals responding to
the needs of that community.
20Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
- Willie Browns substantive representation of gay
and lesbian voters in his district led to passage
of the Sexual Freedoms Act, and Sheila Keuhl
passed partnership rights. - Latino and Asian legislators led the push to
provide healthcare and welfare for legal,
noncitizen residents after welfare reform. - Black members of Congress from California have
been national civil rights leaders.
21Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
- How would you design a study to systematically
answer this question? - Find districts that switched from non-minority to
minority representation, but stayed relatively
stable in demographics. - Examine the legislation sponsored by previous
legislators and minority members. - Make this comparison for districts that vary in
the size of their minority population.
22Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
- The Catch-22 of Willie Brown. As minority
legislators assume positions of greater power,
these jobs require them to appeal to a much
broader constituency. - Speaker Willie Brown may have been the most
powerful African American elected official in the
nation (p. 138), but Brown used his legislative
prowess to protect his members rather than
advance his own liberal agenda. (p. 157) --
Richardson
23Recent Gains and Losses (Discussion Section
Questions)
- These data present a few puzzles
- Why have minorities performed so much better in
state elections than in Congressional elections? - Is the drop in African-American representation a
temporary blip or a long-term trend, and what
explains it? - Why havent gains at the district level
translated into increasing minority success in
statewide contests?