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Poli 103A California Politics Moving On Up to Sacramento

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Title: Poli 103A California Politics Moving On Up to Sacramento


1
Poli 103A California PoliticsMoving On Up to
Sacramento
2
The End of the Rainbow Wedge Issues and Their
Backlash
  • A wedge issue is used by candidates of one party
    to attract voters who usually support the other
    party in effect, driving a wedge between the
    opposition and its normal supporters. Cain and
    MacDonald, p. 201.
  • A wedge can split the other party, a minority
    group, or a group coalition.

3
The End of the Rainbow Wedge Issues and Their
Backlash
  • Passed by a 59-41 margin in 1994, Prop. 187
    would have prevented state and local governments
    from providing social services, education, and
    non-emergency medical care to noncitizens.
  • It fueled Pete Wilsons dramatic comeback, with
    36 of Democrats supporting it and 19 of Dems
    supporting Wilson over Kathleen Brown.
  • Opposition to 187 was highest among Latinos
    (77), Jews (55), and blacks and Asians (53).

4
The End of the Rainbow Wedge Issues and Their
Backlash
  • Passed by a 55-45 margin in 1996, Prop. 209
    ended gender and race preferences by state and
    local governments, in fields such as public
    universities, public employment, and government
    contracts.
  • Favored 51-36 by whites, opposed 57-27 by
    Latinos, opposed 66-18 by blacks, and opposed
    53-31 by Asians.
  • It failed to help Bob Dole as a wedge issue,
    because it did not win many Democratic votes.

5
The End of the Rainbow Wedge Issues and Their
Backlash
  • Since the Prop. 187 campaign, Latino voters have
    been energized Democrats.
  • The number of new citizens in the state jumped
    from 178,000 in 1993-1994 to 515,000 in
    1995-1996.
  • In 1996, 67 of newly registered Latinos voted,
    up from 43 in 1994.
  • Latinos voted 73-21 Democratic in 1996, after
    voting 52-40 Dem in 1992.

6
Rainbows within Rainbows
7
Rainbows within Rainbows
  • LAs Jewish community has split into Valley
    moderates, Westside liberals, and conservative
    Iranian immigrants.
  • Black leadership split between Mark Ridley-Thomas
    and Maxine Waters.
  • Latino splits between poorer, more recent
    immigrants with ties to service labor
    (Molinistas) and middle class with ties to
    business (Eastside PRI)

8
Rainbows within Rainbows
  • In the 2001 mayoral race, the growth machine and
    conservatives sat on the sidelines as Steve
    Soboroff, Riordans protégé, failed to make the
    run-off.
  • Jimmy Hahn narrowly defeated Antonio Villaraigosa
    to win, claiming 59 of white voters, 80 of
    blacks, 18 of Latinos, and 65 of Asians.

9
Rainbows within Rainbows
  • In 2005, Antonio Villaraigosa beat Hahn in a
    rematch to become L.A.s first Latino mayor of
    the modern era.
  • Hahns firing of African-American police chief
    Bernard Parks cost him with the black community
  • Hahns successful opposition to Valley secession
    hurt him with Valley voters
  • Villaraigosa the energizer bunny.

10
Moving On Up to Sacramento
  • The Necessary Conditions for Success
  • External factors
  • Internal factors
  • Recent Gains and Losses in Minority
    Representation
  • Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?

11
The Necessary Conditions for Success
  • Fernando Guerra identifies the conditions
    necessary to elect Latinos to important office in
    California.
  • External factors are the general electoral
    conditions outside of the control of the Latino
    community.
  • Internal factors are under the effective
    control of the Latino community, its leaders, and
    organizations (Guerra, p. 444)

12
The Necessary Conditions for Success External
Factors
  • 1. Reapportionment new districts destabilize
    incumbents, and the Voting Rights Act can redress
    past vote dilution.
  • 2. Term Limits booting out incumbents allows
    demographic trends to be reflected in election
    results.
  • 3. Conventional wisdom about the tendencies of
    minority voters. Changes in perception lag behind
    changes in behavior.

13
The Necessary Conditions for Success Internal
Factors
  • 1. Political maturity of the community. To be an
    effective voting block, it can take decades for a
    group to age, naturalize, become natural-born,
    and raise its socio-economic status.
  • African-American community is mature by age and
    naturalization standards, gaining in
    socioeconomic.
  • Some API groups are wealthy and have high rates
    of citizenship, some have neither, some have one.
  • Latinos are steadily becoming more political
    mature in both respects, but have a way to go.

14
The Necessary Conditions for Success Internal
Factors
  • 2. Political maturity of organizations that are
    not candidate or campaign specific. Groups like
    the NAACP, MALDEF, NALEO, 80/20, and legislative
    caucuses are mature, as are churches, ethnic
    media, and unions.
  • 3. Political maturity of leadership. In the
    early 1990s, leaders like Richard Polanco
    selected and elected by recruiting candidates
    and helping their campaigns.

15
Recent Gains and Losses in Minority
Representation
16
Recent Gains and Losses in Minority
Representation
17
Recent Gains and Losses in Minority
Representation
  • Latino, black, API, Jewish, and gay legislators
    have also risen to leadership positions in the
    Legislature
  • Willie Browns 15-year reign as Speaker, and Herb
    Wessons recent term.
  • Cruz Bustamante, Antonio Villaraigosa, and Fabian
    Nunez speakerships.
  • Speaker Bob Hertzberg, Majority Whip Wilma Chan,
    and Appropriations Chair Carole Migden and
    Judiciary Chair Sheila Keuhl.

18
Recent Gains and Losses in Minority
Representation
19
Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
  • Descriptive representation comes when members
    of a minority group are elected to office.
  • Substantive representation comes when a
    minority community elects a candidate of its
    choosing who pursues policy goals responding to
    the needs of that community.

20
Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
  • Willie Browns substantive representation of gay
    and lesbian voters in his district led to passage
    of the Sexual Freedoms Act, and Sheila Keuhl
    passed partnership rights.
  • Latino and Asian legislators led the push to
    provide healthcare and welfare for legal,
    noncitizen residents after welfare reform.
  • Black members of Congress from California have
    been national civil rights leaders.

21
Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
  • How would you design a study to systematically
    answer this question?
  • Find districts that switched from non-minority to
    minority representation, but stayed relatively
    stable in demographics.
  • Examine the legislation sponsored by previous
    legislators and minority members.
  • Make this comparison for districts that vary in
    the size of their minority population.

22
Does Minority Representation Make a Difference?
  • The Catch-22 of Willie Brown. As minority
    legislators assume positions of greater power,
    these jobs require them to appeal to a much
    broader constituency.
  • Speaker Willie Brown may have been the most
    powerful African American elected official in the
    nation (p. 138), but Brown used his legislative
    prowess to protect his members rather than
    advance his own liberal agenda. (p. 157) --
    Richardson

23
Recent Gains and Losses (Discussion Section
Questions)
  • These data present a few puzzles
  • Why have minorities performed so much better in
    state elections than in Congressional elections?
  • Is the drop in African-American representation a
    temporary blip or a long-term trend, and what
    explains it?
  • Why havent gains at the district level
    translated into increasing minority success in
    statewide contests?
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