Draft Report Breakout Session III-5 Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Draft Report Breakout Session III-5 Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change

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Title: Draft Report Breakout Session III-5 Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change


1
Draft Report Breakout Session III-5 Ecosystem
Consequences of Climate Change
  • Ecosystem Impacts Feedbacks
  • Effects on Biodiversity, Invasions, Protected
    Areas
  • Societal Consequences, Ecosystem Services

2
Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change
Climate Change - 35,496 hits in Web of
Science Climate Change and Ecosystem(s) 5,097
hits 97 in Nature/Science, 612 Reviews
3
What are likely ecosystem consequence of climate
change?
  • Terrestrial Ecosystems
  • Carbon
  • Fire
  • Phenology
  • Insect defoliation
  • Vegetation Communities
  • Permafrost
  • Coastal Ecosystems
  • Marine Ecosystems
  • Pelagic Systems
  • Coastal Wetlands
  • Mangroves/Sea Grass
  • Eutrophication/Anoxia
  • Algal Blooms
  • Coral Reefs
  • Phytoplankton Biodiversity

4
Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks
  • Carbon cycle
  • Very strong research, remote sensing crucial
  • Fire Regimes
  • Strong research, remote sensing crucial
  • Phenology
  • Strong research, remote sensing crucial

5
Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks
  • Insect Defoliation
  • Some research, remote sensing crucial
  • Vegetation Community Change
  • Strong modeling based research, remote sensing
    crucial for baseline
  • Most work has used climate envelopes, better
    models may be necessary

6
2000
2100
Mapped Atmosphere-Plant-Soil System (MAPSS)
output US Global Change Research Program. 2000.
Climate Change Impacts on the United States
7
Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks
  • Permafrost
  • Some research, remote sensing crucial
  • Freshwater Lakes
  • Limited research, remote sensing important
  • Coastal Ecosystems
  • Some research, remote sensing important

8
Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks
  • Pelagic System
  • Very little research, remote sensing crucial
  • Estuarine and Coastal Wetlands
  • Some research, innovative remote sensing required
  • Mangroves, Sea Grass, and Kelp Beds
  • Some research, innovative remote sensing required
  • Coastal Eutrophication and Anoxia
  • Some research, some remote sensing measurements

9
Ecosystem Impacts and Feedbacks
  • Harmful Algal Blooms
  • Some research, innovative remote sensing required
  • Coral Reefs
  • Some research, remote sensing crucial
  • Ocean Acidification
  • Important research, remote sensing important
  • Global Phytoplanton Biodiversity / Food Webs
  • Some research on functional groups, innovative
    remote sensing methods required

10
What are likely consequences of climate change
for biodiversity et al.?
  • Biodiversity
  • Species Range Shifts and Extinctions
  • Loss of Rare Ecosystems
  • Protected Areas
  • Native and Exotic Invasions

11
Biodiversity, Protected Areas,and Invasions
  • Species Range Shifts and Extinctions
  • Strong modeling based research, remote sensing
    important
  • Loss of Rare Ecosystems
  • Some modeling based research, remote sensing
    important for baseline

12
Biodiversity, Protected Areas,and Invasions
  • Protected Areas
  • Limited research on climate change threats,
    remote sensing important for baseline
  • Invasions
  • Some modeling based research, remote sensing
    important

13
What are the societal consequences of climate
change?
  • Ecosystem Services
  • Agriculture/Forestry
  • Fisheries/Aquaculature
  • Water/Glaciers/Precipitation
  • Pollination
  • Geomorphogy
  • Extreme weather events
  • Urbanization
  • Human Health
  • Political Destabilization/Failed States

14
What are the societal consequences of climate
change?
  • Threatened Ecosystem Services
  • Agriculture / Forestry
  • Strong research, remote sensing crucial
  • Fisheries / Aquaculture
  • Some research using remote sensing and modeling
  • Water / Precipitation
  • Strong research, remote sensing important
  • Pollination
  • Some research, remote sensing relevant

15
What are the societal consequences of climate
change?
  • Extreme Events (Hurricanes etc.)
  • Strong research, remote sensing crucial
  • Human Health
  • Some research, remote sensing role unclear
  • Political Destabilization / Failed States
  • Little quantitative research, remote sensing
    could play important role

16
What are the most important cross-cutting
science questions?
  • Interactions, Adaptations, and Mitigation
  • Climate changeand society

17
What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?
  • Adaptations
  • The importance of the rates of climate change is
    largely unknown
  • Rapid evolution we dont know how quickly
    species can adapt (genetically and behaviorally)
  • Species ability to migrate will depend on rates
    of change

18
What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?
  • Mitigation
  • Society will attempt to mitigate climate change
  • What are the ecosystem consequences of different
    mitigation measures?
  • E.g.., Iron fertilization

19
What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?
  • Overview Part I
  • Biodiversity loss
  • Harmful Algal Blooms
  • Sea Level Rise
  • Ecosystem Response to Disturbance

20
What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?
  • Overview Part II
  • Sea Ice Loss and Change of Trade Routes
  • Desertification
  • Land Use Change and Coastal Systems
  • Protected areas, source-sink dynamics,
    biodiversity, and carbon sequestration

21
What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?
  • Biodiversity loss
  • Land use is currently more important, climate
    change will be after 2050 (or so)
  • Range shifts will depend on landscape
    fragmentation
  • Land use change in response to climate change may
    matter more than actual climate change

22
What are the most importantcross-cutting science
questions?
  • Interdisciplinary Land-Ocean Research
  • Affects of use change on sediments and nutrients
    in estuaries and ultimately harmful algal blooms
  • Climate change and increasing duststorms
    affecting algal blooms

23
Where are changes most likely? Focused field
campaigns may be necessary
Lenton et al. 2008. Tipping elements in the
Earths climate system. PNAS. 1551786-1793
24
Can upcoming NASA mission address these questions?
  • Vegetation structure, ecosystem function, and
    species distributions
  • DESDynI and HyspIRI (and ACE) are exciting and
    will be crucial
  • Data continuity crucial (LDCM )
  • Ready-to-use standardized data products
  • Web-tools, data integration

25
Is there a need for additional coordination of
research activities?
  • Model Integration
  • Model Web (G. Geller)
  • Partnership with Science Agencies
  • NIH, NSF, NOAA
  • Partnership with Management Agencies and NGOs

26
Ecosystem Consequences of Climate Change
  • The major challenge will be to develop a holistic
    understanding of human-natural systems to predict
    climate change consequences
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