All you can do is pick up one grail and carry it around and see if it keeps on glowing. You are only able to carry one at a time. If the one you are carrying is the Holy Grail, it will never stop glowing. But you would never know if you currently had the - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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PPT – All you can do is pick up one grail and carry it around and see if it keeps on glowing. You are only able to carry one at a time. If the one you are carrying is the Holy Grail, it will never stop glowing. But you would never know if you currently had the PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 7198e4-OGFmN



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All you can do is pick up one grail and carry it around and see if it keeps on glowing. You are only able to carry one at a time. If the one you are carrying is the Holy Grail, it will never stop glowing. But you would never know if you currently had the

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Title: All you can do is pick up one grail and carry it around and see if it keeps on glowing. You are only able to carry one at a time. If the one you are carrying is the Holy Grail, it will never stop glowing. But you would never know if you currently had the


1
???? ????????????(2)
  • ????

???????
2
  • All you can do is pick up one grail and carry it
    around and see if it keeps on glowing. You are
    only able to carry one at a time. If the one you
    are carrying is the Holy Grail, it will never
    stop glowing. But you would never know if you
    currently had the Holy Grail, because the grail
    you are carrying might stop glowing at any
    moment. All you can do is reject grails that are
    clearly not holy (since they stop glowing at some
    point) and keep picking up a new one. You will
    eventually die (with no afterlife, in this
    scenario) without knowing whether you succeeded.

3
Popper ??????
  • This is similar to Poppers picture of sciences
    search for truth. All we can do is try out one
    theory after another. A theory that we have
    failed to falsify up till now might, in fact, be
    true. But if so, we will never know this or even
    have reason to increase our confidence.

4
Popper ??????
  • ???????,????????????????,??????????(ad hoc
    hypothesis)?
  • A modification in a theory, such as the addition
    of an extra postulate or a change in some
    existing postulate, that has no testable
    consequences that were not already testable
    consequences of the unmodified theory will be
    called ad hoc modifications.

5
Popper ??????
  • ?????????
  • Having carefully observed the moon through his
    newly invented telescope, Galileo was able to
    report that the moon was not a smooth sphere but
    that its surface abounded in mountains and
    craters. His Aristotelian adversary had to admit
    that things did appear that way when he repeated
    the observations for himself. But the
    observations threatened a notion fundamental for
    many Aristotelians, namely, that all celestial
    bodies are perfect spheres. Galileos rival
    defended his theory in the face of the apparent
    falsification in a way that was blatantly ad hoc.

6
Popper ??????
  • He suggested that there was an invisible
    substance on the moon, filling the craters and
    covering the mountains in such a way that the
    moons shape was perfectly spherical. When
    Galileo inquired how the presence of the
    invisible substance might be detected, the reply
    was that there was no way in which it could be
    detected. There is no doubt, then, that the
    modified theory led to no new testable
    consequences and would be quite unacceptable to a
    falsificationist.

7
Popper ??????
  • ?????????
  • Prior to Lavoisier, the phlogiston theory was the
    standard theory of combustion. According to that
    theory, phlogiston is emitted from substances
    when they are burnt. This theory was threatened
    when it was discovered that many substances gain
    weight after combustion. One way of overcoming
    the apparent falsification was to suggest that
    phlogiston has negative weight. If this
    hypothesis could be tested only by weighing
    substances before and after combustion, then it
    was ad hoc. It led to no new tests.

8
Popper ??????
  • ?????????????????????????
  • ?????????????? (trial and error),?????????????????
    ?????,?????????????????????????????????????,?????
    ????

9
Popper??????
  • Popper I can therefore gladly admit that
    falsificationists like myself much prefer an
    attempt to solve an interesting problem by a bold
    conjecture, even (and especially) if it soon
    turns out to be false, to any recital of a
    sequence of irrelevant truisms. We prefer this
    because we believe that this is the way in which
    we can learn from our mistakes and that in
    finding that our conjecture was false we shall
    have learnt much about the truth, and we shall
    have got nearer to the truth. (Conjectures and
    Refutations, p.231.)

10
????
  • ? falsifiability ????????????????????
  • ??????????,???????????????
  • ??????????????????????????????????

11
????
  • Popper ? falsifiability ???????????

12
????
  • ???????????????,???? rational prediction
    ??????????????????? T1 ? T2,?? T1 ???????????
    (well-corroborated),???????T2 ???????,??????,?????
    ?????????????????????????????,??????????????????

13
????
  • ?????????????????????????????

14
Kuhn ?????
  • T.S. Kuhn (1922-1996) ??? The Structure of
    Scientific Revolutions (first published in 1962)
    ????????

15
  • Glymour has described Kuhns The Structure of
    Scientific Revolutions as very likely the single
    most influential work on the philosophy of
    science that has been or will be written in the
    20th century
  • It is currently the most widely read. Since its
    publication in 1962, the University of Chicago
    Press has sold over one-and-a-half million copies
    of the English-language edition, and the book had
    been translated into at least nineteen languages.

16
  • What made Kuhns book so controversial was its
    rejection of many of the ways of thinking about
    science that had become standard during the first
    half of the twentieth century. Instead of giving
    logical analyses of individual scientific
    theories or constructing formal models of
    concepts such as explanation and confirmation,
    Kuhn turned to psychology, sociology, and history
    in order to draw a picture of science that, he
    claimed, was far more faithful to the original
    than anything that philosophers of science had
    yet proposed.

17
  • ???????????,?????????????,????????????????,??????
    ???????,?????????????????????????????

18
  • Kuhn ????????????????????
  • Kuhn ??????????????????????????????????????????,??
    ??????????????????,??????????
  • ?????????????????????,? Kuhn ??,?????????????

19
???????
  • ??? (pre-science) ?
  • ???? (normal science ) ?
  • ?? (crisis)?
  • ???? (scientific revolution ) ?
  • ?????? (new normal science ) ?
  • ???? (new crisis ) ..

20
?????
  • ???????????,??????,????,??????????????????????????
    ?????????????,?????????????
  • ?????????????,????????????????????????????????????

21
??????
  • ???????,??????? (paradigm) ??????????????????
  • ?????????????????????????????????????????????????
    ?????????????

22
??????
  • ??????,Kuhn ????????????????,Masterman ????? 21
    ???????
  • ?????,??????????????,???????????????????????
    (exemplar)???,Mendel ????????????? Newton
    ??????????Maxwell ?????????????????????????,?????
    ????????,??????????????????

23
????
  • ???????well organized?
  • ???????,????????????????,????????????????????,????
    ???????????????
  • ??,????????????????????

24
????
  • ???????,???????????????????????????????
  • ???????????????????,??????????????????????????????
    ???????????,????????????????
  • ???????????????,??????????????????????????????????
    ?????

25
????
  • ???????,????? puzzle-solving ?????????????????????
    ????????????????????????,???????????????,???????
  • Kuhn ????? puzzle ?? problem,??????? puzzle
    ???????????,?????????????? problem ?????????
  • ???????????????????,??????,???????? puzzle?

26
????
  • ?????????????????? good puzzles,?????????
  • ???????????????????????????,??????????????????????
    ?
  • ????????????????????? puzzles ???????
  • ?????????????,????????????,???????????,???????????
    ????? Only a poor workman blames his tool.

27
????
  • ?????????????????????????????? (anomaly, a puzzle
    which resists solution is an anomaly)?
  • ????????????????????????????????????,?????????????
    ?????????,???????????????
  • ??Newton ?????????Uranus ??????? Neptune
    ???Mercury ???????

28
????
?? ?? ???? ??/??
1-29 ?????? Microsoft Office 2003 ?????,?? Microsoft ?????????? 46?52?65 ?????
2 All you can do is pick up one whether you succeeded. Peter Godfrey-Smith, Theory and Reality An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science, University of Chicago Press, 2009, p.60-61. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
3 This is similar to increase our confidence Peter Godfrey-Smith, Theory and Reality An Introduction to the Philosophy of Science, University of Chicago Press, 2009, p.61. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
4 A modification in a theory ad hoc modifications. Alan Francis Chalmers, What Is This Thing Called Science? University of Queensland Press, 1999, p.75. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
5 Having carefully observed thea way that was blatantly ad hoc Alan Francis Chalmers, What Is This Thing Called Science? University of Queensland Press, 1999, p.76. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
29
????
?? ?? ???? ??/??
6 He suggested that there unacceptable to a falsificationist Alan Francis Chalmers, What Is This Thing Called Science? University of Queensland Press, 1999, p.76. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
7 Prior to Lavoisier, It led to no new tests Alan Francis Chalmers, What Is This Thing Called Science? University of Queensland Press, 1999, p.77. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
9 I can therefore and we shall have got nearer to the truth Karl Raimund Popper, Conjectures and refutations the growth of scientific knowledge, Basic Books, 1962, p.412. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
15 Glymour has described Kuhns ... in the 20th century Clark Glymour, Theory and Evidence, Princeton University Press, 1980, p.94. ??????? 46?52?65 ?????
16 What made Kuhns book so controversial ... had yet proposed. Curd, Martin and J. A. Cover. Philosophy of Science The Central Issues. 1998, W. W. Norton, p83.??????? 46?52?65 ?????
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