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Does Man-made CO2 really cause Global Warming ? Just running the numbers

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Title: Does Man-made CO2 really cause Global Warming ? Just running the numbers


1
Does Man-made CO2 really causeGlobal Warming
?Just running the numbers
2
  • or the FUTILITY of Man-made Climate Control
  • by the limitation of Man-made CO2 emissions

3
The importance of the Greenhouse Effect
  • On average the temperature of the planet is
    15C
  • This is sustained by the atmospheric Greenhouse
    Effect 33C
  • Without the Greenhouse Effect the planet would be
    at an un-inhabitable average temperature of about
    -18C
  • The Biosphere and Mankind need the Greenhouse
    Effect.

4
Achieving the Greenhouse Effect of 33C
  • The Greenhouse Effect is achieved by a mixture of
    Greenhouse gases
  • Water Vapor 95.0
  • CO2 3.5
  • Other Greenhouse gases Methane, Nitrous Oxide
    and CFCs accounting for their greater
    Greenhouse potential. 1.3

5
Atmospheric causes of the Greenhouse Effect
6
But CO2 is not all Man-made
  • the agreed natural pre-industrial level
  • 280 parts per million 74
  • natural out-gassing from slightly warmer oceans
    and from the biosphere in the last 200 years,
    since the end of the little ice age
  • 73 parts per million 19
  • Man-made input from burning fossil fuels etc, a
    high estimate of
  • 27 parts per million 7

7
Origins of atmospheric CO2
8
Impact of the various agents on the Greenhouse
Effect
  • The Man-made CO2 molecule is in no way different
    nor is it particularly potent when compared with
    any naturally occurring CO2.
  • The following calculations measure the impact of
    the various causes of the Greenhouse Effect in
    terms of degrees centigrade (C) to achieve the
    total of 33C.

9
Of the 33C Greenhouse Effect
  • Water Vapor accounts for 31.35C
  • Carbon Dioxide accounts for 1.24C
  • Natural 1.15C
  • Man-made 0.09C
  • Other Greenhouse gases Methane, Nitrous Oxide
    and CFCs
  • Natural 0.30C
  • Man-made 0.12C

10
Proportions of the Greenhouse Effect measured in
C
11
Contributors to the Greenhouse Effect in C
12
C when water vapor is considered
13
C when water vapor is ignored
14
Man-made Effects on Global Temperature
  • As can be seen Man-made CO2 emissions have less
    temperature impact than Man-made emissions of
    other Greenhouse gases
  • Man-made CO2 0.09C
  • Man-made Methane, Nitrous Oxide and
    CFCs 0.12C
  • This is because the other gases even at much
    lower concentrations are more potent Greenhouse
    gases.

15
The Big Question
  • Thus 0.09C is the full amount of temperature
    reduction that could be achieved by closing the
    whole Worlds Carbon economies.
  • So how are the Worlds politicians going to limit
    warming to only 2.00C by controlling something
    that can only ever have a Total Effect worldwide
    of 0.09C. ?
  • This clearly shows the FUTILITY of any
  • Man-made attempts to Control Climate via CO2

16
CO2 emissions compared
17
Annual emissions compared by volume
18
Annual emissions compared by consumption
19
The extent of the temperature correction that
could be achieved by CO2 reductions
  • The following table shows the impact on global
    temperature in millionths of C of each
    territory
  • closing the Carbon economy of entire nations
    100.
  • reducing CO2 emissions by just 20, which in
    itself would be sufficient to destroy the western
    style economy of any developed nation.
  • for example in the UK a 20 emission reduction
    could only ever result in a reduction global
    warming by an undetectable 348 millionths of a C.

20
Impact in millionths' of C of CO2 reductions
  • A. 100 close whole B. 20 carbon
  • carbon economy reduction
  • France 1,172 / 1,000,000 C 234 / 1,000,000 C
  • South Africa 1,268 / 1,000,000 C 254 /
    1,000,000 C
  • Mexico 1,334 / 1,000,000 C 267 / 1,000,000 C
  • Iran 1,428 / 1,000,000 C 286 / 1,000,000 C
  • Italy 1,450 / 1,000,000 C 290 / 1,000,000 C
  • South Korea 1,453 / 1,000,000 C 291 /
    1,000,000 C
  • Canada 1,665 / 1,000,000 C 333 / 1,000,000 C
  • United Kingdom 1,738 / 1,000,000 C 348 /
    1,000,000 C
  • Germany 2,462 / 1,000,000 C 492 / 1,000,000 C
  • Brazil 2,787 / 1,000,000 C 557 / 1,000,000 C
  • Japan 3,955 / 1,000,000 C 791 / 1,000,000 C
  • India 4,618 / 1,000,000 C 924 / 1,000,000 C
  • Russia 4,784 / 1,000,000 C 957 / 1,000,000 C
  • United States 17,588 / 1,000,000 C 3,518 /
    1,000,000 C
  • China 18,662 / 1,000,000 C 3,732 / 1,000,000
    C
  • Rest of World 20,437 / 1,000,000 C 4,087 /
    1,000,000 C

21
The Bjorn Lomberg assertion
  • These figures amply justify Bjorn Lombergs
    clear assertion that
  • even if the Kyoto Protocol were to be
    implemented in full and applied world-wide that
    such strenuous action could only ever diminish by
    a matter of days a temperature rise by the year
    2100.
  • of course if it were occurring at all by then.

22
Not joining in
23
Is CO2 a pollutant or the stuff of life ?
  • Via plants, Carbon dioxide (CO2) a trace gas in
    the atmosphere, that all animals (including man)
    exhale sunlight water (H2O) creates and
    maintains the very Oxygen (O2) we all need to
    breath and simultaneously creates carbohydrates,
    and thus all other organic compounds.
  • That is the real STUFF OF LIFE.
  • Rile against that and you negate the ability of
    all the worlds biosphere to exist on planet
    earth.

24
Is CO2 a pollutant ?
  • But, it is as if
  • entire political establishments
  • particularly, the US Environmental Protection
    Agency EPA, who have declared that CO2 is a
    dangerous pollutant under the Clean Air Act
  • as well as the UK Department of Environment and
    Climate Change and the UK Royal Society
  • much of the scientific establishment
  • all Green activists.
  • have collectively forgotten all their elementary
    school biology about photosynthesis and the
    carbon cycle.

25
Unmitigated Joy
  • So the probability is that any current global
    warming, if it is continuing, is not man-made and
    that in any case it could be not be influenced by
    any remedial action taken by mankind.
  • This prospect should be greeted with UNMITIGATED
    JOY.

26
Unmitigated Joy - if this is so
  • concern over CO2 as a man-made pollutant can be
    forgotten.
  • it is not necessary to damage the worlds economy
    to no purpose.
  • were some warming happening, it would lead to a
    more benign, productive and healthy climate for
    the biosphere and also for all mankind.
  • any extra CO2 is already increasing the fertility
    of all plant life, reducing water demand and
    enhancing world food production.
  • a warmer climate, within natural variation, would
    provide a future of greater opportunity and
    prosperity for human development. This has been
    well proven in the past and would especially
    benefit the third world.

27
Worthwhile Green matters
  • But the unwarranted concentration on reducing CO2
    emissions is deflecting serious and well-meaning
    Green activists from more immediate and
    worthwhile objectives.
  • There are many more investments that should be
    prioritised for the benefit of mankind. This is
    especially so in the third world including
  • controlling malaria.
  • clean water.
  • stopping deforestation.
  • AIDS prevention etc.

28
Worthwhile Green matters
  • It remains absolutely clear that our planet is
    vastly damaged by many human activities,
    including
  • environmental pollution.
  • over fishing.
  • forest clearance.
  • industrial farming.
  • farming for bio-fuels.
  • and other habitat destruction, etc.
  • These are all things that should be tackled as
    priorities.

29
Nonetheless
  • This is not to say that the world should not be
    seeking more efficient ways of generating its
    energy, conserving its energy use and stopping
    damaging its environment.
  • There is a real need to wean the world off the
    continued use of fossil fuels on the grounds of
  • security of supply.
  • increasing scarcity.
  • rising costs.
  • their use as the feedstock for industry rather
    than simply burning them.

30
Summary just running the numbers
  • Greenhouse Effect 33.00C
  • Non H2O Greenhouse gases GHGs 5 1.65C
  • CO2 75 of all GHGs 1.24C
  • Worldwide Man-made CO2 lt7 of total CO2 0.087C
  • UK contribution to CO2 2 0.00174C
  • expressed as millionths C 1740 / 1,000,000C
  • Thus this is the maximum contribution to the
    Greenhouse Effect that closing down the whole UK
    Carbon economy could ever have on Global
    Temperature.

31
Reference
  • Much of this original data was published in 2003
    at
  • http//www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Greenhouse_data.
    html
  • As the website says
  • Water vapour, the most significant Greenhouse
    gas, comes from natural sources and is
    responsible for roughly 95 of the Greenhouse
    Effect. Among climatologists this is common
    knowledge but among special interests, certain
    governmental groups, and news reporters this fact
    is under-emphasized or just ignored altogether.
  • Conceding that it might be "a little misleading"
    to leave water vapour out, they nonetheless
    defend the practice by stating that it is
    "customary" to do so!

32
Reference
  • Much of this original data was published in 2003
    at
  • http//www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/Greenhouse_data.
    html
  • Note that this report shows Man-made CO2 at only
    3.27 of total atmospheric CO2 rather than the
    7 used in these calculations.
  • At 3.27 all the figures shown here for the total
    Man-made contribution to the Greenhouse Effect
    would be even lower at 0.0405C.
  • The 7 was calculated as 5 times the current
    worldwide annual emissions using a half life of 5
    years for CO2 in the atmosphere.
  • See also http//www.withouthotair.com/
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