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The%20Scientific%20and%20Social%20Challenges%20of%20Global%20Warming

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The Scientific and Social Challenges of Global Warming Jeffrey T. Kiehl Climate Change Research Section National Center for Atmospheric Research – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The%20Scientific%20and%20Social%20Challenges%20of%20Global%20Warming


1
The Scientific and Social Challenges of Global
Warming
  • Jeffrey T. Kiehl
  • Climate Change Research Section
  • National Center for Atmospheric Research

jtkon_at_ucar.edu
2
Outline
  • History of climate change science
  • How has the climate changed?
  • How will the climate change?
  • How are we involved in the change?
  • How to communicate information to the public?

3
History of Climate Change Science
4
Joseph Fourier
  • Asked What determines the temperature of Earth?
  • 1824 1827 works noting that atmosphere keeps
    Earth warm

5
The Greenhouse Effect
T
6
The Greenhouse Effect
T
7
John Tyndall
  • In 1860s measured what gases absorb thermal
    radiation
  • Found that water vapor and carbon dioxide are
    major absorbers

8
The Greenhouse Effect
9
Svante Arrhenius
  • In 1896 noted that industrial input of carbon
    dioxide would build up
  • Calculated Earth would warm by 4 C for a
    doubling of carbon dioxide

10
Dave Keeling
  • In 1950s to present Keeling measured the increase
    in carbon dioxide in Earths atmosphere

11
The Keeling Curve
12
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13
IPCC(2007)
14
How has the climate changed?
15
What is Changing?
  • Temperature (increase)
  • Rainfall (increased intensity)
  • Snow cover (decrease)
  • Sea ice cover (decrease)
  • Ocean heat (increase)
  • Ocean acidity (increase)
  • Sea Level (increase)
  • Glacial coverage (decrease)
  • Ecosystems (decrease/shifts)

16
Ammann et al. (2006)
17
Ammann et al. (2006)
18
IPCC Temperature Trends
19
IPCC (2007)
20
Nghiem et al. (2007)
21
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22
How will the climate change?
23
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24
Change in Temperature from Present
Crowley(2001)
Past
Present
25
September Sea Ice Conditions
  • Gradual forcing results in abrupt ice transitions
  • From 80 to 20 extent in 10 years.
  • Winter maximum shows
  • Smaller, more gradual decreases

Abrupt transition
Observations Simulated 5-year running mean
(Holland et al., 2006)
26
Chapter 11 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report
US Regional Temperature Increase
27
US South WestIs the current drought just the
start?
IPCC Distribution Multi-Model Outlook
20th century
21st century
Seager et al. 2007
28
How are we involved in the change?
29
Human Factors Contributing to Global Warming
  • Growth in Population
  • Growth in Demand for Energy
  • Changes in Technology
  • Changes in Consumption

30
US is 5 of global population, but 25 of global
emissions
31
Environment
Humans
32
Leiserowitz(2004)
33
Given all of this scientific information,why has
little been done to address the problem of global
climate change?
  • How public values the environment
  • Ineffective communication of information
  • Special interests distortion of information
  • Reluctance of public to accept information

34
Valuing the Environment
  • Utilitarian value
  • What nature can provide for us
  • Intrinsic value
  • Inherent value in nature independent of us
  • Type of value determines our way of relating to
    the environment

35
Beliefs
Values
Behaviors
Information
Social Norms
36
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37
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38
How to Communicate Information to the Public?
39
Communication Challenges(How to Deliver
Information)
  • What is the Role of Affect in Conveying the
    Message?
  • Is Information by Itself Enough?
  • How Can the Message be Better Delivered?

40
The Role of Affect in Conveying Information
  • Tendency to defend against depressing news
    (Negative effect)
  • What has been missing to date is the neglect of
    affect of information (Positive effect)

Moser (2007)
41
Mechanisms to Deal with Affects
  • Denial of threat
  • Belief problem wont effect me
  • Projection of responsibility onto someone else
  • Fatalism
  • Wishful thinking or rationalization
  • Refusal to change
  • Uncertainty trap
  • Displacement of attention to other issues
  • Numbing (Apathy)

Moser (2007)
42
Is Information Enough?
  • Existing belief that information is sufficient to
    change attitudes and behaviors
  • But information is not enough to change attitudes
  • Importance of
  • Who is delivering the information?
  • How is the information delivered?
  • The most important thing to know for motivating
    behavior is your audiences beliefs and values

Chess Johnson (2007)
43
Culture Information
  • Issue Cultures Social problems that become a
    concern for society (e.g. 9/11 security)
  • Bridging Metaphors Scientific ideas are encoded
    in a distinct language that need to be decoded
    for the public
  • Cultural Whirlwinds Rapidly evolving sequences
    of events that create a vortex

Ungar (2007)
44
Information Transformation
Scientific Observations
Public Awareness
Affect Laden Metaphors
Narratives
Theory Models
45
Without deep reflection, we have taken on the
story of endings, assumed the story of
extinction We need new storiesa new narrative
that would imagine another way, to learn the
infinite mystery and movement at work in the
world. Linda Hogan
46
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