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Possible%20Russian%20Development%20Paths%20%20An%20Analysis%20of%20Recent%20Trends%20in%20Policy%20and%20Performance%20and%20Some%20Back-of-the-Envelope%20Musings%20about%20the%20Future

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Title: Possible%20Russian%20Development%20Paths%20%20An%20Analysis%20of%20Recent%20Trends%20in%20Policy%20and%20Performance%20and%20Some%20Back-of-the-Envelope%20Musings%20about%20the%20Future


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Possible Russian Development Paths An Analysis
of Recent Trends in Policy and Performance and
Some Back-of-the-Envelope Musings about the
Future
  • Christian Gianella William Tompson
  • Economics Department
  • Organisation for Economic Cooperation
    Development
  • Global convergence scenarios structural and
    policy issues OECD, Paris, 16 January 2006 Salle
    des Nations, Tour Europe, La Defense

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The usual disclaimer
  • The views expressed in this presentation are
    those of the authors and do not necessarily
    reflect the position of the OECD or its member
    states.

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Contributions to GDP growth (not adjusted for
capacity utilisation rates)
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Natural resource sectors (mainly oil) have been
driving the growth of output.
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Non fuel TB and exchange rate
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Cumulative variation of the trade balance and
factors contributions
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Russias population is expected to continue
shrinking rapidly to 2050
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as the overall population grows older.
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The labour force is therefore set to shrink
markedly.
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Investment still contributes too little to
growth.
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Saving -investment balance (in GDP)
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A longer-term shift in economic policy may be
unfolding.
  • The authorities are well aware that investment
    levels are too low. The question is how to boost
    them?
  • A two-track strategy is possible
  • Of course, it would be foolish to bank on
    consistency. . .

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A few observations on Russias choices
  • Institutionally, Russia is not very well equipped
    for any of the more demanding options.
  • The survey results are worrying, not least
    because they suggest deterioration in some of the
    areas in which Russia most needs to make
    progress.
  • Many areas will require substantial improvement
    regardless of the strategic direction Russia
    takes.
  • This implies that a very large part of the
    structural reform agenda should be relatively
    non-controversial. So why have we seen so little
    progress since 2003?
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