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Title: Forecast in Power Production and Impact on CCPs in Europe


1
Forecast in Power Production and
Impact on CCPs in Europe

Joachim Feuerborn
European Coal Combustion Products Association
2
Content
  • Introduction Role of Coal in Energy mix
  • Role of Coal in Europe
  • Production and Utilisation of CCPs
  • Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
  • 5. Conclusions

3
1 Introduction Role of Coal in Energy Mix
World Energy Consumption 2012
Total 12.4 bn toe ( 17.7 bn tce)
(cp 14.6 bn tce in 2004)
Graph based on BP Statistical Review of World
Energy 06.2013
4
1 Introduction Role of Coal in Energy Mix
Expected growth in worldwide electricity
generation (in billion kWh)
Source IEA, VGB in VGB facts figures
2012/2013
5
1 Introduction Role of Coal in Energy Mix
Expected growth in electricity generation (in
billion kWh)
worldwide
EU
Source IEA, VGB in VGB facts figures
2012/2013
6
2 Role of Coal in Europe
Source EURACOAL
7
2 Role of Coal in Europe
Coal is a major fuel for energy and steam
production in European coal-fired power plants,
especially in single EU member states .
8
2 Role of Coal in Europe
9
3 Production and utilisation of CCPs
Development of CCP production in Europe (EU 15)
from 1993 to 2010
10
3 Production and utilisation of CCPs
Utilisation and dispoal fo CCPs in Europe (EU 15)
in 2010
11
3 Production and utilisation of CCPs
MS for EU statistics
Estimate based on coal comsumption
Information on uses only partly available
12
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
The most important Directives are
  • IPPC Directive - Integrated Pollution Prevention
    and Control (main principles for permitting and
    control of installations, integrated approach,
    application of Best Available Technique (BAT))
  • LCPD - Large Combustion Plant Directive (aims to
    reduce acidifciation, ground level ozone and
    particulates by controlling emissions of SO3,
    NOx and dust from large combustion power plants)
  • IED - Industrial Emission Directive (successor of
    IPPCD - aims in minimising pollution from various
    industrial sources, based on several principals
    integrated approach, BAT, flexibitlity,
    inspections, public participation)

European Pollutant Release and Transfer Register
(E-PRTR) (replaces and improves the previous
European Pollutant Emissions Register)
13
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
Basic protocol and convention
  • KYOTO Protocol On 1.12.1997 37 industrial
    countries agreed to reduce green- house gases
    (GHG) over the five year period 2008 2012, know
    as KYOTO Protocol which entered force in 2005
  • CONVENTION on Climate Change The KYOTO Protocol
    is linked to the United Nations Framework
    Convention on Climate Change.
  • The Convention encourage industrialised countries
    to stabilize GHG emissions, the Protocol only
    commits them to do so.

14
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
Mechanisms of the KYOTO Protocol
  • Emission (CO2) Trading Industry has to deal with
    CO2 emissions with CO2 certificates. In the first
    two phases of CO2 trading the certificates were
    given for free, the third phase will start 1.
    January 2013 were certificates will be traded.
  • Joint Implementation (JI) JI enables
    industrialized countries to carry out joint
    implementation projects with other developed
    countries
  • Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) CDM allows
    emission-reduction projects in developing
    countries to earn certified emission reduction
    (CER) credits, which can be traded and sold, and
    used by industrialized countries to a meet a part
    of their emission reduction targets.

15
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
  • Climate and Energy Package
  • In December 2008, the European Parliament and the
    Council agreed upon the so-called Climate and
    Energy Package, which entered force in 2009.
  • The legislative package put in place what is
    collectively known as the EU-20-20-20 targets
    to be met by 2020
  • Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions of at
    least 20 below 1990 level,
  • Increasing the share of renewable energy to 20,
    and
  • Improving the EUs energy efficiency by 20.

16
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
  • The 20-20-20 package is part of the
  • Roadmap for moving to a low-carbon economy in
    2050
  • The European Union (EU) is to become a
    competitive low carbon economy.
  • The EU should prepare for reductions in its
    domestic GHG emissions by 40  by 2030, and by
    80  by 2050.

Aim Reduction in global GHG emissions of 50 
by 2050 may avoid a temperature
increase of 2C
17
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
Mitigation of climate change in the EU two
stages two speeds
Reduction of GHG emissions from 5.8 Gt/y in 1990,
to some 4.6 Gt/y in 2020, and to some 1 Gt/y in
2050
Source European Commission and OECD
Environmental Outlook, 2008
18
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
Evolution of installed capacity in EU-27 2009
to 2020
19
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
Evolution of Electricity Generation in EU-27
2009 -2020
20
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
Generation equipment capacity by primary energy
in MW
DEPENDING ON POLITICAL DECISIONS!
Source EURELECTRIC Power Statistics
21
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
Power Plant efficiency and CO2 reduction
potential of the European Power Industry
Source VGB
22
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
Power Plant efficiency and CO2 reduction
potential of the European Power Industry with
CCS
Source VGB
23
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
New power plant projects in European member
states
Source VGB
24
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
New power plant projects in single EU member
states
Source VGB
25
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
New hard and lignite firing power plants under
construction
(excerpt of VGB database on new power plant
projects)
UCON under construction
26
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
New hard and lignite firing power plants in
authorisation process
(excerpt of VGB database on new power plant
projects)
WA waiting for authorisation
27
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
Basics for future energy production
  • Renewables first
  • Cost effective production by other
    sources (nuclear, coal, biomass, gas according
    spec. merit order)

Cost factors to be considered at any time
  • Fuel cost
  • Cost of CO2 certificates
  • Energy cost (energy trade)
  • .

28
4 Legislative, Technological and Economic impacts
Impacts on energy prices
  • feed in tariffs for renewable power (wind,
    photovoltaic,..)
  • (different in member states)

Factors for energy trade
  • Duration of contracts (long term/short term)
  • Calculation average cost // limit costs
  • Trading by exchange markets (sport
    market/prognosis)
  • .

Risks for power production
  • Demand dependent production by renewables not
    possible
  • Production by e.g. coal as back up in times
    with low demand and therefore low prices not
    profitable

29
5 Conclusions
  • ? Primary energy demand will increase, worldwide
    and in Europe
  • ? Coal is a major fuel for energy and steam
    production
  • ? Operation of coal-fired power plants are
    influenced by European Directives (IPPC, LCPD,
    IED) and Decisions which aim in reduced emission
    into the environment.
  • ? The CO2-reduction aims 20 by 2020, 40  by
    2030 and by 80  by 2050 will result in reduced
    use óf coal and increase the use of renewables
    and co-combustion in coal-fired power plants. In
    addition, the operation conditions of coal-fired
    power pants will be different.

30
5 Conclusions
  • ? New coal-fired power plant projects are
    designed for co-combustion and flexible
    operation. Most of the power plants under
    construction are already under fire
  • ? Due to energy trading additional factors for
    operation of coal-fired power plants to be
    considered.
  • ? The amount of CCPs in EU15 countries is
    decreasing. However, the amount of ash produced
    in EU 28 countries sums up to more than 145
    million tonnes.
  • ? Coal will remain a major fuel for energy
    production.
  • ? Quality aspects and marketing activities have
    to be considered for the use of CCPs .
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