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CHAPTER 7 Inflation

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ECONOMICS: EXPLORE & APPLY Enhanced Edition CHAPTER 7 Inflation Learning Objectives Describe inflation rates in the U.S. and other countries. Discuss the cost of ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: CHAPTER 7 Inflation


1
CHAPTER 7Inflation
ECONOMICS EXPLORE APPLYEnhanced Edition
2
Learning Objectives
  1. Describe inflation rates in the U.S. and other
    countries.
  2. Discuss the cost of inflation that cause low
    inflation to be a macroeconomic goal.
  3. Compute, interpret, and use a price index to
    compute a real value.

3
Learning Objectives
  1. Identify problems with price indexes and efforts
    to improve them.
  2. (EA) Explain how people respond to inflation,
    and how that affects its measurement.

4
7.1THE GOAL OF LOW INFLATION
  • Along with economic growth and high employment,
    low inflation is the third fundamental goal of
    the economy.
  • Inflation is a persistent increase in the price
    level.
  • The price level refers to the prices of goods and
    services, when considered in the aggregate.

5
The Goal of Low Inflation
  • The inflation rate is the annual percentage
    increase in the price level.
  • In the U.S., as long as the inflation rate from
    year to year stays at around 3 per year,
    Americans are satisfied that the goal of low
    inflation has been accomplished.
  • If the inflation rate is above 3, people expect
    the government to take action to fight
    inflation.

6
The U.S. Inflation RateSelected Years
Year Inflation Rate
1945 2.3
1946 8.3
1947 14.4
1948 8.1
1949 -1.2
1950 1.3
7
The U.S. Inflation RateSelected Years
Year Inflation Rate
1955 -.4
1960 1.7
1965 1.6
1970 5.7
1975 9.1
1980 13.5
8
The U.S. Inflation RateSelected Years
Year Inflation Rate
1985 3.6
1990 5.4
1991 4.2
1992 3.0
1993 3.0
1994 2.6
2002 1.6
2003 2.1
9
Inflation A World-WidePhenomenon
  • The CIA estimates that the average inflation in
    the world in 2002 was 3.3.
  • Most of these severely high rates occurred in
    developing countries.
  • The developing countries inflation rates ranged
    between 5 and 60 as compared to the range in
    developed countries which was between 1 and 3.
  • Political instability can result from severe
    inflation

10
Inflation Rates in Selected Countries
Country - Year 2003 Inflation Rate
Ecuador 12.5
Zimbabwe 134.5
Yugoslavia (Slovakia Montenegro) 19
Ukraine -1.2
Russia 15
Venezuela 31.2
Mexico 6.4
Brazil 8.3
China -.08
11
Inflation Rates in Selected Countries
Country - Year 2003 Inflation Rate
Bolivia 2
U.S. 1.6
U.K. 2.1
Germany 1.3
Japan -0.99
Argentina -0.9
12
Deflation and Disinflation
  • When the inflation rate is negative, deflation is
    said to occur.
  • This would happen if the price level declined
    from one year to the next.
  • Deflation is not an economic goal.
  • Historically, widespread falling prices and poor
    economic performance seem to go hand in hand.
  • Disinflation means that the rate of inflation
    declines, and is different than both inflation,
    and deflation.

13
7.2THE HARM FROM INFLATION
  • Energy and food prices are subject to wide
    fluctuations caused by temporary shifts in their
    supply.
  • Excluding food and energy prices from the
    computation of the inflation rate reveals what is
    termed core inflation.

14
The Core Rate of Inflation
15
The Harm from Inflation
  • Inflation hurts those on fixed incomes.
  • Inflation hurts lenders.
  • Inflation increases the opportunity cost of
    search time for cheaper substitute goods.
  • Inflation motivates businesses to offer new
    products.
  • Inflation might motivate business to trim the
    amount of product rather than raise its price.

16
Anticipated and Unanticipated Inflation
  • Anticipated inflation is expected by the public.
  • In theory, everyone is able to defend themselves
    against losses imposed by anticipated inflation.
  • Unanticipated inflation is inflation that catches
    the public by surprise.
  • Borrowers gain by unanticipated inflation, while
    lenders lose.

17
Indexing to Offset Inflations Effects
  • Indexing is a solution to offset the problems
    created by unanticipated inflation.
  • Automatically adjusting the terms of an agreement
    to account for inflation is referred to as
    indexing.

18
7.3MEASURING INFLATION
  • A price index measures the average level of
    prices in the economy.
  • There are several price indexes.
  • The consumer price index.
  • The producer price index.
  • The GDP chain-type price index
  • The GDP deflator.

19
Measuring Inflation The Consumer Price Index
  • The CPI measures prices of typical purchases made
    by consumers living in urban areas.
  • The base period used in the CPI is an arbitrary
    selected initial time period against which other
    time periods are compared.
  • The base period index number always equals 100.

20
Measuring Inflation The Consumer Price Index
The Inflation rate is calculated by taking the
percentage change in the CPI as follows
Inflation Rate change in price index /
initial price index multiplied by 100
21
Measuring Inflation The Consumer Price Index
  • The collection of goods and services used in the
    calculation of the CPI is called the market
    basket.
  • The market basket represents a sampling of the
    items that consumers buy that make up a
    significant portion of their budget.
  • There are 200 specific items that make up the
    CPI.
  • Each item is assigned a weight that reflects its
    importance in the consumers budgets.

22
CPI Market Basket Expenditure Categories
Expenditure Category Weight (in )
Food and beverages 15.7
Housing 40.9
Apparel 4.4
Transportation 17.1
Medical care 5.8
Recreation 6.0
Education and communication 5.8
Other goods and services 4.3
Total 100.0
23
The Consumer Price Index, Selected Years
Averages to 100, base period value.
24
Computing a Price Index
  • The CPI measure the increase in the price of the
    market basket between the current year and the
    base period.
  • The simplified formula for the CPI is

25
Nominal Versus Real Values
  • A nominal interest rate is the payment from a
    borrower to a lender, expressed in percentage
    terms.
  • A real interest rate measure the percentage
    payment in terms of purchasing power.

Real interest rate nominal interest rate
inflation rate
26
Price Indexes for Other Purposes
  • The Producer Price Index (PPI) focuses on the
    prices received by U.S. producers, as measured by
    the revenue they receive.
  • The prices in the PPI are those received by
    producers no matter who makes the initial
    purchase, whether it be another firm or consumer.

27
Price Indexes for Other Purposes
  • The GDP chain-type price index is computed in a
    manner similar to the GDP deflator.
  • The difference is that the real chained GDP is
    used in the calculation.

GDP chain-type nominal GDP/real chained GDP
28
Price Indexes for Other Purposes
  • The term chain weight comes about because the GDP
    chain-type price index links quantities (weights)
    in two successive years.
  • It then moves forward a year and does that link
    again, and so forth.
  • This continuous linking , for two years at a time
    forms a chain, hence the name.

29
Price Indexes for Other Purposes
  • The GDP deflator is a type of price index called
    an implicit price deflator.
  • An implicit price deflator takes current
    quantities and calculates what they would have
    cost at prices prevailing during the base period.

GDP deflator Value of current quantities at
current period prices Value of current quantities
at base period prices
30
Recent Changes to the CPI
  • Prior to 1999, the CPI was calculated using
    fixed-weights throughout the market basket.
  • Fixed-weights do not take into account that
    people change their consumption patterns when
    prices rise.
  • When the price level rises people substitute
    relatively cheaper goods for goods that have
    become relatively more expensive.

31
Recent Changes to the CPI
  • The inaccuracy in the CPI cause by using fixed
    weights is termed the substitution bias.
  • The substitution bias causes inflation to be
    overstated.
  • A new CPI was established in 2002 called the
    Chained weight CPI (C-CPI).

32
7.4 EXPLORE APPLYAdjusting to Price Changes
  • The CPI is used in three ways.
  • As an economic indicator.
  • To convert nominal values to real values.
  • To adjust selected monetary payments upward as
    prices increase.
  • Hyperinflation is inflation that is out of
    control.

33
How the CPI Measures the Price Level
  • The rule of 72 is used to compute the approximate
    time it takes for a rate to double.
  • To compute how long it would take for an
    inflation rate to double the equation would be
  • 72/the inflation rate

34
How the CPI Measures the Price Level
Annual Inflation Rate Estimated of Years for Price Level to double
1 72
2 36
4 18
8 9
10 7.2
16 4.5
35
Key Terms
  • inflation
  • inflation rate
  • indexing
  • Consumer Price Index
  • Producer Price Index
  • GDP chain-type index
  • GDP deflator
  • nominal value
  • real value

36
Test Yourself
  • Which of the following best fits the definition
    of inflation?
  • A one-time increase in a few prices.
  • A one-time increase in many prices.
  • A sustained increase in a few prices.
  • A sustained increase in many prices.

37
Test Yourself
  • 2. The core inflation rate excludes
  • energy prices.
  • the price of medical care.
  • food prices.
  • both food and energy prices.

38
Test Yourself
  • 3. The goods and services included in the
    computation of the CPI are referred to as the
    _____________________ .
  • base year.
  • fixed weights.
  • market basket.
  • price level.

39
Test Yourself
  • 4. How is inflation computed?
  • The inflation rate equals the value of a price
    index.
  • The inflation rate equals the value of a price
    index.
  • By the following computation
    (change in price index/initial value of price
    index multiplied by 100).
  • By the following computation
  • change in price index multiplied by the initial
    value of price index.

40
Test Yourself
  • 5. When the real value of GDP is computed by the
    government
  • the CPI is used.
  • the PPI is used.
  • The GDP deflator or the chained-type price index
    is used.
  • no price index is necessary because the real and
    nominal values of GDP are always identical.

41
Test Yourself
  • 6. The substitution bias causes the CPI to?
  • overstate the effects of inflation.
  • understate the effects of inflation.
  • more accurately reflect the effects of inflation.
  • be nearly useless as a measure of inflation.

42
The End! Next Chapter 8 A Framework for
Macroeconomic Analysis
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