Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006

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Title: Slide 1 Author: Tennessee Witney Last modified by: kb Created Date: 8/23/2006 1:41:01 PM Document presentation format: Bildschirmpr sentation – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Second International Seville Seminar on Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA): Impacts on policy and decision making 28th- 29th September 2006


1
Second International Seville Seminar on
Future-Oriented Technology Analysis (FTA)
Impacts on policy and decision making28th- 29th
September 2006
REGULATORY FORESIGHT METHODOLOGIES AND SELECTED
APPLICATIONS
Author Knut Blind Presenter Kerstin Cuhls
Chair of Innovation Economics at Berlin
University of Technology Head of Department
Regulation and New Markets Fraunhofer Institute
for Systems and Innovation Research
2
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Content
Introduction Definition Overview of Regulatory
Foresight Methodologies Implementations Indicator-
based approaches Surveys Foresight
Studies Comparative Assessment
3
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Types of Regulatory Foresight
4
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Structure of the Assessment of the Methodologies
General description general description of the
foresight and impact assessment methodology,
including the operational steps for
application Good practice examples practical
examples of how the methodology has been used at
different levels General assessment Conditions
for methodology application indications of the
costs of implementation, complexity of use,
degree of methodology acceptance Data
requirements/indicators indication of the input,
output, outcome/impact indicators available to
measure the future needs for regulations and
standards General assessment of the scope and
limits of methodology
5
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Evaluation Matrix Matching policy
instrumentsand methodologies
Source Fahrenkrog et al. 2002
6
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Selected Methodologies adequate for Regulatory
Foresight
Indicator-based approach Surveys Foresight
studies (incl. Delphi methodology and scenarios)
7
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Indicator-based Approach Science and Technology
Indicators
Source Blind (2004) modifying Grupp (1998)
8
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Indicator-based Approach Examples
Blind (2002, 2004) shows that developments in RD
measured by patents cause subsequent
standardisation activities empirical studies,
which confirm the relationship between the
dynamics of technology and the adaptation of the
regulatory framework based on quantitative
approaches, are missing some studies
investigated the influence of the regulatory
framework on RD activities (Koch et al. 2004) or
product innovation (Bassanini, Ernst
2002) plenty of anecdotal evidence that the
regulatory framework has been adapted to the
emergence of new technologies, like in bio- or
nanotechnology
9
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Indicator-based Approach Challenges
  • link between science and technology indicators
    and indicators describing the regulatory
    framework is not established yet
  • because by a significant lack of regulatory
    indicators and especially of respective time
    series and of rather differentiated
    sub-categories.
  • not all new developments in science and
    technology, but especially those with possible
    impacts on health, safety, the environment and on
    the functioning of markets require an adjustment
    of the regulatory framework
  • identification of those regulation-relevant new
    technologies or new specifications within mature
    technologies is only at the very beginning and
    requires further methodological efforts

10
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Indicator-based Approach Assessment
  • Conditions for methodology application
  • ST indicators available
  • problem of indicators related to regulations
  • approach rather innovative
  • Data requirements/indicators
  • simple ST indicators not sufficient
  • regulation-relevant contents and stakeholders
    necessary to to identify challenges and areas for
    future regulatory action
  • General assessment of the scope and limits of
    methodology
  • adequate for detecting new regulatory fields
  • progress in indicator-based approaches required
  • complementing content and stakeholders analyses
    allow a further specification of possible fields
    input for other methodological approaches

11
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Surveys Operational Steps
Elaboration of questionnaire (including questions
on the involvement of setting regulatory
frameworks and standardisation, the relevance of
regulations, the use of existing standards,
future needs and possible impact
dimensions) Definition / Construction of target
population in terms of type of organisation,
sectors, size classes, and regions Collection of
survey and preparation of data set Definition of
objectives of the organisation depending on the
possible requirements for regulations Constructio
n of econometric models based on theoretical
hypotheses Statistical or econometric data
analysis and interpretation of results.
12
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Surveys Example Discrepancies between
preferred and current use of standards
Discrepancy indicator formula (?i( of type
preferred - of type used)2 )½ (i type of
standard)
Source Blind 2006
13
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Surveys Assessment
  • Conditions for methodology application
  • rather time-intensive
  • asking stakeholders about future needs for
    standardisation and regulation activities
  • high acceptance as a methodology
  • Data requirements/indicators
  • very specific regulatory challenges addressable
  • differentiation of needs into different types of
    stakeholder groups possible
  • if surveys are representative, data can be
    combined with indicators
  • General assessment of the scope and limits of
    methodology
  • assessing future needs for regulations and
    impacts rather difficult even for experts,
  • improvable to become reliable instrument

14
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Foresight Studies Intentions
  • find out changes in consumer preferences and to
    detect new technological opportunities
  • identify a choice of technological opportunities,
    set policy, e.g. regulatory, priorities and
    assess potential impacts and chances
  • discuss desirable and undesirable futures
  • prospect the potential impacts of current
    research, technology and regulatory policy
  • focus selectively on economic, technological,
    social and ecological areas as well as to start
    monitoring and detailed research in these fields

15
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Foresight Studies Example Delphi Survey among
Telecommunication Experts
  • small-scale Delphi study among participants of an
    ITU (International Telecommunication Union)
    expert workshop
  • assessing future technical and business
    developments taken from the Seventh Japanese
    Technology Foresight Report (2001) according to
    their expected time of realisation, their
    importance, the effectiveness of policy measures,
    e.g. RD support, (de-)regulation, and
    standardisation
  • examples of results
  • role of standardisation highest for network
    systems of protecting privacy and secrecy
  • regulation required for implementation of systems
    checking data content unsuitable for kids

16
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Foresight Studies Assessment
  • Conditions for methodology application
  • costly and time-consuming involving many experts
  • careful performance of multi-stage methodological
    processes involving stakeholders
  • high acceptance, but tendency to overburden
    certain approaches, like Delphi surveys
  • Data requirements/indicators
  • development of questionnaires including relevant
    areas requiring new or adjusted regulation
  • including all parties involved in regulation
    including users with minimum expertise
  • sufficient sample sizes promoted by short surveys
  • scenarios on future role of regulation should
    include information about various regulatory
    options consistency checks have to be made in
    order to identify different future scenarios

17
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Foresight Studies Assessment
  • General assessment of the scope and limits of
    methodology
  • Delphi surveys are flexible and can be applied in
    all areas, require sufficient number of experts
    able to assess the future role and types of
    regulation
  • Delphi method cannot detect sudden science and
    technology breakthroughs
  • Delphi methodology promotes convergence process
    leading to a consensus, but weak signals or the
    minority views could be overseen
  • variety of visions could be better covered by
    scenario development
  • in the scenario process bias by individual
    experts has to be controlled for

18
REGULATORY FORESIGHT
Overview and Assessment of Regulatory Foresight
Methodologies
Metho-dology Type Data Requirements Strengths Limitations
Indicators Quanti-tative also providing qualitative information Adequate science and technology indicators combined with qualitative data Systematic approach Comparison across technologies, countries and over time Detailed analysis allows the identification of specific regulation-relevant content and even stakeholders Only quantitative data is not sufficient to detect emerging fields of regulation Little information about possible types of regulation Influence of non- technology-related factors cannot be considered
Surveys Quanti-tative Qualitative Micro data of the respondent and the organisation Assessment of future relevance of regulation, but also actual relevance of existing regulation Detect insights of specific needs for future regulation Findings from the surveyed sample can be generalised to the universe High cost and time- consuming Processing and analysis of data requires large human resources Identification of adequate samples Some types of information are difficult to obtain (answers to counterfactual questions or earlier situations) Long time series generally not available
Foresight Studies Qualitative Semi-quantitative Qualitative and semi-quantitative data from Delphi surveys Scenarios, roadmaps Consensus building to reduce uncertainty about regulatory priorities and impacts Articulation and road mapping of the development of new technologies Impossibility to detect major technological breakthroughs and their regulatory requirements In case of conflicting interests, non-consensus about priorities Identification of experts Uncertainty increases with complexity of the context (technology, markets) and future time horizon
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