CARIBBEAN CLIMATE MODELLING and Adaptation A. ANTHONY CHEN

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CARIBBEAN CLIMATE MODELLING and
AdaptationA. ANTHONY CHEN JAYAKA CAMPBELL
THE CLIMATE STUDIES GROUP MONA
(CSGM)UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES, MONA

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Outline

• Before 2007
• Climate Modelling
• Importance of modelling
• Early Works
• 2007 IPCC 4th Assessment
• After 2007
• Some Results
• Current
• Future Work

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CLIMATE

• Defining key terms
• Climate
• average weather over period of 30 years
  usually.
• Climate Change
• A significant change from one climatic condition
  to another
• Due to natural or anthropogenic causes.

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Climate Modelling is important

• Atmosphere is too vast
• Impossible to carry out large scale experiments
• Climate simulation or modelling is the only way
  to study large scale systems of the atmosphere
• Climate models are an important tool for
  scientists to understand the complexities of
  Earths climate
• incorporate both theory and direct observations
  of the past and present in order to project
  climate into the future
• Lay the foundation for decision making concerning
  climate change

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Climate Models

• Introducing key tools
• Dynamic Climate Model
• Equations describing processes
• Types
• General Circulation Models GCMs
• Regional Climate Models RCMs
• Domain Region over which RCM works
• Statistical Downscaling Models
• Reducing GCM to finer scale by use of statistical
  relationships between atmospheric parameters and
  climate variables
• Require 30 years of daily data

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Dynamic Computer Models

• Solves for/calculates and steps forward in time
• Equations of motion
• First law of thermodynamics
• Physics of water vapor and clouds
• Chemical processes in atmosphere
• Land - atmosphere interactions
• Biological processes
• Land - ocean interactions

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Distinction between GCM and RCM

• GCM Resolution are too coarse
• to identify small islands
• (Boxes too large)

RCMs have finer resolution (Smaller boxes)

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Jamaica as an example
GCM 2 grid boxes
RCM 10 grid boxes
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Use Scenarios for Climate Change Studies

• Plausible future climate based on perceived
  greenhouse gas emission which depend on
  developments in
• Demographics
• Technology
• Economics
• Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES)
• SRES Scenarios can be classified into four family
  groups further divided into scenario groups.

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SRES FAMILY TREE

• Roots are the drivers
• Population
• Economy
• Technology
• Etc
• Branches depend on whether development is
• globally intergated or regional
• Driven by economics or environmental
  considerations

Source http//www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission
/
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SRES Scenarios
Source http//www.grida.no/climate/ipcc/emission
/spm-3.htm
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CARIBBEAN CLIMATE MODELLING INITIATIVE 2002

• CSGM along with other Caribbean partners (INSMET
  Cuba, UWI Cavehill Barbados and CCCCC
  Belize) begun Caribbean modelling initiative
• Deliberate collaborative effort to produce
  Caribbean climate projections at scale of
  Caribbean.
• Premised on shared workload to get results out
  quickly.
• Premised on building of capacity in the region.
• Multiple components to the strategy, but
  concentrate on a major one.

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EARLY WORKS 2002 CLIMATE MODELLING INITIATIVE

• Introduction a Regional Climate Model
• PRECIS - Providing REgional Climates for Impact
  Studies
• Hadley Centre, UK

• PRECIS Modelling
• Complex but computationally less expensive than
  a GCM.
• Requires a Desktop Standard Desktop Pentium 4
  Processor
• Could be run locally

• Dynamical Downscaling Model (RCM)
• Can be used for any part of the Globe
• Has a resolution of up to 25km
• Driven by full suite of physics
• Multiple variables on multiple levels in
  atmosphere.
• Forced at its boundaries by other GCMs - the
  HADAM3P GCM and ECHAM.
• Built by UK Hadley Centre but run locally

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Early Works Climate Modelling Initiative

• DOMAIN
• Big Domain including all Caribbean, Central
  America, southern USA and northern South America.
  Run at 50 km
• Two smaller domains
• Western Eastern Caribbean (yellow and red
  enclosure) at 25 km

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EARLY WORKS CLIMATE MODELLING INITIATIVE
PRECIS Workload Shared
Cuba (INSMET) Carib basin 50 x 50 km B1 (30 yrs) A2 (30 yrs)Baseline (30 yrs)Reanalysis (15 yrs)
Jamaica UWI (Mona) Carib Basin 50 x 50 km A2 (30 yrs) B2 (30 yrs)Baseline (30 yrs)
Barbados UWI (Cave Hill) Eastern Caribbean 25 x 25 km A2 (30 yrs) B2 (30 yrs) Baseline (30 yrs)
Belize - 5Cs Caribbean and Eastern Caribbean Multiple runs
Baseline (1961 1990), Reanalysis (1979 1993),
A2 B2 (2071 2100)
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Early Works Model Validation
(A) Rainfall Early season April June Late
season August - November
Precipitation
(B) General temperature Pattern Captured
Temperature
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Early Works Model Projections
General tendency for drying (main Caribbean
basin) by end of the century.Drying between 25
and 30 Possibly wetter far north Caribbean NDJ
and FMA. Drying exceeds natural variability
June-October wet season dryer!
A2
B2
Mean changes in the annual rainfall for 2071-2099
with respect to 1961-1990, as simulated by
PRECIS_ECH and PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2.
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Early Works Model Projections
Precipitation Natural Variability
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Early Works Model Projections
General tendency for drying (main Caribbean
basin) by end of the century.Drying between 25
and 30 Possibly wetter far north Caribbean NDJ
and FMA. Drying exceeds natural variability
June-October wet season dryer!
Projected Precipitation Change
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Early Works Model Projections
Irrespective of scenario the Caribbean expected
to warm.Warming between 1 and 5oC Warming
greater under A2 scenario. Warming consistent
with projections for other parts of
globe. Warming far exceeds natural variability
A2
B2
Mean changes in the annual mean surface
temperature for 2071-2099 with respect to
1961-1990, as simulated by PRECIS_ECH
PRECIS_Had for SRESA2 and SRESB2.
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Early Works Model Projections
Temperature Natural Variability
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Early Works Model Projections
Projected Temperature Change
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Unable to report results until 2007 due to amount
of work involved. Not reported in IPCC 2007 4th
AssessmentIPCC 2007 4th Assessment mentioned
a) GCM work done at UPR MayaguezAngeles, M.E.,
J.E. Gonzalez, D.J. Erickson, and J.L. Hernández,
2007 Predictions of future climate change in the
Caribbean region using global general circulation
models Int. J. Climatol., 27, 555-569 b) Work
done on statistical downscaling at UWI,
Monahttp//www.aiaccproject.org

• Not Reported in IPCC (2007)

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IPCC Fourth Assessment 2003 2006Published in
2007
Working Group 1 Report The Physics Science
Basis (Data Analysis Climate Modelling)
Working Group II ReportImpacts, Adaptation and
Vulnerability
Working Group III Report"Mitigation of Climate
Change"
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Temperature Changes under A1B Scenario 1980-1999
to 2080-2099
NOT ENOUGH REGIONAL MODELLING DONE FOR THE
CARIBBEAN

• Report based on course General Circualtion models

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Temperature Changes under A1B Scenario 1980-1999
to 2080-2099
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Rainfall Changes under A1B Scenario 1980-1999 to
2080-2099
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Rainfall Changes Changes under A1B Scenario
1980-1999 to 2080-2099
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After 2007- A Few Publications Modelling
Initiative
Taylor MA, A Centella, J Charlery, I Borrajero ,
A Bezanilla, J Campbell, R Rivero, TS Stephenson,
F Whyte, R Watson, 2007. Glimpses of the Future
A Briefing from the PRECIS Caribbean Climate
Change Project, Caribbean Community Climate
Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize. Campbell J, MA
Taylor, TS Stephenson, RA Watson, FS Whyte, 2010
Future Climate of the Caribbean from a Regional
Climate Model. Int J Climatol DOI
10.1002/joc.2200.
Other reports Cashman, A., L. Nurse, and J.
Charlery. 2010. Climate change in the Caribbean
The water management implications. The Journal of
Environment Development 19(1)
42-67. Charlery, J., and L. Nurse. 2010. Areal
downscaling of global climate models an approach
that avoids data remodelling. Clim Res 43
241249. doi 10.3354/cr00875.
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After 2007 USE OF DATA
Reporting Purposes Compiling projections for use
in 2nd National Communications Antigua St.
Lucia St. Vincent Grenada Jamaica
St. Lucia
RCM
2070s
JAN 1.6 - 1.9
FEB 1.8 - 2.3
MAR 1.9 - 2.5
APR 1.9 - 2.8
MAY 2.2 - 2.7
JUN 2.1 - 2.7
JUL 1.9 - 2.5
AUG 1.9 - 2.2
SEP 2.0 - 2.2
OCT 1.9 - 2.3
NOV 1.8 - 2.1
DEC 1.8 - 2.1
ANNUAL 1.9 - 2.4
RCM
2070s
JAN -46.91 --25.90
FEB -78.37 - -50.04
MAR -86.14 - -50.95
APR -81.80 - -57.79
MAY -69.91 - -47.49
JUN -77.10 - -47.26
JUL -57.86 - -29.02
AUG -36.29 - -21.95
SEP -39.94 - -21.95
OCT -33.13 - -3.76
NOV -30.37 - 18.58
DEC -48.69 - -8.32
ANNUAL -57.21 - -27.94
Rainfall
Temps
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More Recent Pilot Project for Climate
Resilience (PPCR)

• Climatology, Trends, Projections and Impacts for
  Jamaica
• Funded by adaptation and mitigation funds
  following Copenhagen and Cancun
• PPCR the first program developed and
  operational under the Strategic Climate Fund
  (SCF),
• SCF one of two funds within the design of the
  Climate Investment Funds (CIF)

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CURRENT Future MODELLING INITIATIVE

• Uncertainies in model results
• Increase confidence limits by averaging the
  results of many models
• Expand range of RCMs
• PRECIS
• WRF
• REMO
• CCSM
• Use of high resolution GCM (Japanese 20 km model)

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Current Modelling Initiative

• Investigating Hurricane like vortices present in
  climate models.

Model WRF - H
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Current Modelling Initiative

• Addition of the Japanese MRI Earth Simulator
  model results
• GCM
• Horizontal resolution 20km
• 24 Levels of atmosphere
• 26 Variables (16 surface, 10 3D)
• All variables are monthly averages
• GCM model with highest resolution so far

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Current Modelling Initiative
Japanese Model Results - Topography
Diagram shows how accurately the 20 km JMA/MRI
Model represents topographical heights. GTOPO30
- observed topographical heights. 20, 60, 120 and
180 km model simulations Note Above 60 Km even
the mountains of larger territory of Hispaniola
arent simulated
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CURRENT MODELLING INITIATIVE Looking at Western
Caribbean mountains (Belize) from South to North,
20 km resolution better than 60, 120, 180
Japanese Model Results - Topography
Diagram the comparison of Grey blocks (GTOPO30 -
observed topographical heights) and modeled 20,
60, 120 and 180 km simulations of cross-section
for particular latitudes
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Future Modelling Initiative

• Past Current work offers a first look at the
  possibilities for the future of Caribbean
  climate. However we need to
• Expand the range of forcing GCMs of the PRECIS
  model from HADCM3 and ECHAM5
• Incorporate more RCMs to add a greater degree of
  confidence to generated projections.
• Move from atmosphere only models to ones with a
  coupled ocean-atmosphere framework
• Run a full ensemble of climate modelling
  scenarios, not just the extremes in each case.
• More Statistical downscaling

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Future - Analysis of Model Results using
Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) for
IPCC 5th
Radiative forcing measure of difference between
incoming and outgoing radiation in the atmosphere
Image 2.6 emissions will restrict temperature
rise to 2ºC
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Future Modelling other sectors

• Form closer relationship with the Impact and
  Adaptation community.
• Climate Impacts our daily life How do we adapt?
• The Caribbean is heavily dependent on agriculture
  and tourism, so what is the significance of a
  projected 1ºC 5ºC rise in temperature to those
  sectors?
• What do the projected changes mean for the onset
  or spread of tropical diseases (examples ..
  dengue or leptospirosis)?
• How or will the projected changes in climate
  impact development and plannning?

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Future
More Partnerships
Too difficult, time consuming for any one country
or institution. Collaboration heightens
efficiency for producing usable results. Builds
synergies/support groups across institutions.
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End-Note

• Climate affects all aspects of life (Taylor,
  2010)
• Climate change is a threat to all life
• Concern of all our government ministries, private
  sector organizations and civil society
• With no global accord on the reduction of GHGs,
• threat of climate change will become very severe
• the cost of adapting, especially to sea level
  rise, will become enormous
• future prosperity of the Caribbean community will
  be at risk.

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Thank You Climate Studies Group Mona