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Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods in Pakistan (2010)

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Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods in Pakistan (2010) Presented by: M. Tariq Yousafzai ibc208tamu_at_gmail.com * M.Tariq Yousafzai ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the Aftermath of Floods in Pakistan (2010)


1
Disaster Preparedness and Need Assessment in the
Aftermath of Floods in Pakistan (2010)
  • Presented by
  • M. Tariq Yousafzai
  • ibc208tamu_at_gmail.com

1
2
The starting of chain of events
  • Monsoon rains of summer 2010 were heavy and
    lasted for three months (monsoon region)
  • Climate change (conference in Copenhagen)
  • According to UN (August), the number of people
    affected by these massive floods could exceed the
    combined total of three mega disasters

2
3
Three Reports have emerged
  • Pakistan Floods 2010- Preliminary Damage and Need
    assessment (ADB and WB)
  • Civil Society Rapid Appraisal of Flood Damage and
    Need Assessment (Rural Development Policy
    Institute, the Pakistan Debt Cancellation
    Campaign and Oxfam)
  • The UN prepared an additional report entitled,
    The Pakistan Floods Emergency Response Plan

Continued...
3
4
The Role of Government and NGOs
  • Government

Exaggerating loses to receive large amounts of
foreign aid
  • Foreign Agencies

Underestimate the damage due to restricted
access
NGOs
Underestimate the damage due to restricted
access
4
5
For example
Announcements made after 2005 earthquake
  • First,
  • There was no mention of causalities
  • Second,
  • Then came a report of hundreds
  • Third,
  • Then thousands and within a week the number rose
    to scores of thousands

5
6
The actual statistics were
  • 7500 thousand killed and similar number injured.
  • 10 thousand school buildings were damaged or
    destroyed with around 850 teachers and 18000
    students died
  • Around 65 of the 800 hundred health facilities
    were destroyed or badly damaged
  • Over 400,000 thousand homes were damaged or
    destroyed

6
7
The impact of infrastructure
  • The impact was felt around 100km
  • 75 of the single story buildings (stone made)
    could not stand the shocks
  • Quality of mortar very poor

7
8
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10
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11
11
12
Cyclone SIDR-Bangladesh
  • Bangladesh is a very poor country with a per
    capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) that takes it
    196 our of 229 countries in the world

12
13
SIDR continued..
  • Now the Satellite Surveillance and computing
    model helps to warning some 72 hours in advance
  • Use of Symbols is important as majority of
    population living in CHARS is illiterate
  • 44 thousand volunteers help in first aid, post
    cyclone security, destruction damage assessment
    and distribution of relief material
  • Warning fatigueunderestimation of and
    under-preparedness for the danger

13
14
Coming back to Floods continued..
  • There was a large variable in damage and
    rehabilitation assessment ranging from 1 billion
    to 7 billion
  • Flood estimates of 2010
  • The estimates or assessments of the damages
    caused by the recent floods also vary greatly
  • For example 8 billion to 20 billion or even
    more
  • According to World Bank (10 Billion)

14
15
Estimates continued. 2010 floods
  • ADB seem on the lower side due to original costs
    having been used, rather than the inflated rates
    (The solution to this would be discussed during
    the seminar)
  • What we see is that Pakistani Government lacks
    foresight and the ability to foresee a disaster
    and plans for urgent response.
  • Everything is done on an ad hoc and Day to Day
    basis
  • What about voluminous reports????

15
16
SUGGESTIONS
  • Pakistan military should e involved
  • Land and revenue departments should be involved
    in need assessment
  • The reports by WB and ADB do not reflect the true
    situation as their methodologies are scientific
    but data is not
  • The report CIVIL SOCIETY RAPID APPRAISAL OF FLOOD
    DAMAGES and need assessment do not account for
    the province of KPK

16
17
Suggestions continued
  • Three groups overlooked are
  • (a) women sufferings (b) minority groups (c)
    laborers and peasants
  • On the other hand the Ministry of Finance
    estimates about 30 billion
  • Government of Pakistan estimated 43 billion
  • Educated guess might be in the region of 20
    billion in terms of estimates

17
18
Salient features of various reports
  • According to ADB/WB the damage of crops property
    and infrastructure is equal to 9.5 billion
  • Ministry of finance estimates 30 billion
  • Government of Pakistan ignoring the ministry of
    finance estimates, indicate a figure of 43
    billion USD (fearing lesser aid)
  • Punjab was hardest hit (crops)
  • According to UN estimates the floods affected and
    displaced 20 million people, with 6 million
    children, 20,000 people lost their lives, six
    million people are homeless (DSSORAY)
  • According to Govt of Pakistan 724,000 houses have
    been destroyed (KP 42,000) a total of 97 villages
    were affected in Peshawar, 105 in Nowshera, 80
    around Charsada, and 182 in Mardan district

18
19
Continued
  • According to the agricultural officials quoted in
    WB report floods affected 17 million acres of
    agricultural land, destroyed half a million tons
    of wheat and 2 million bales of cotton
  • About 100,000 head of livestock perished overnight

19
20
Continued..
  • Floods have pushed Pakistan back by 50 years in
    terms of infrastructure, electricity and
    communications
  • In KPK alone 112 schools, 201 hotels and 137
    bridges were swept away
  • DISCUSSION QUESTIONS
  • The central issue is that of credibility of the
    assessing organization?
  • Do the Government has any other option but to
    trust and believe the ADB/WB
  • Disaster management is a well developed and
    complicated science that WB and ADB are supposed
    to have mastered, especially in view of their
    experience in dealing with calamities learning
    from experience, as discussed in course outlines)

20
21
Continued
  • World Bank has worked with
  • (a) Bhola cyclone in 1970 Former East Pakistan
    (b) Indian ocean Tsunami
  • (c) Haiti earthquake last year
  • (d) Cyclone Nargis, the Kohistan avalanche
  • (5) In order to challenge the WB/ADB assesment
    which is based on scientific methodology, the
    Pakistani Government and NGOs, would have to
    evolve a credible alternative technology of
    damage-and need-assessment?

21
22
Concluding remarks
  • The WB/ADB Damage and assessment report is
    based on scientific methodology, but lacks
    EXTENSIVE AND DETAILED INFORMATION as a result an
    estimate of 10 billion is far lower than a
    realistic actual damage.
  • A causal factor in the lower estimate is probably
    due to the use of historic costs (no provision
    for positive depreciation and accumulation)
    ignoring inflation.
  • For example a house costing Rs100,000 in the
    1980s would now be about 2 billion to rebuild
  • A more realistic estimate figure would be 20
    billion

22
23
Continued
  • It is suggested that the involvement of the staff
    of land and revenue departments (patwaris and
    tehsildars) and Army personnel posted in the area
    can give a more realistic assesment.
  • They know the people of the area and they usually
    have the local resources to do the job.
  • Any other interesting findings so far..????

23
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25
  • Lets do things in a better way

Thank You !
25
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