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High resolution fossil\industrial CO2: Historical Context

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High resolution fossil\industrial CO2: Historical Context Kevin Gurney Purdue University Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science Purdue Climate Change Research Center – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: High resolution fossil\industrial CO2: Historical Context


1
High resolution fossil\industrial CO2 Historical
Context
Kevin Gurney Purdue UniversityDepartment of
Earth and Atmospheric SciencePurdue Climate
Change Research Center
A52B Frost Petron presiding
..In place of talk by Blasing and colleagues
2
Posters and talks
  • 9 excellent posters yesterday (A41C-0042 to 0049)
  • 6 talks this morning
  • Global
  • Regional Asia, Europe
  • Urban Salt Lake
  • Methodological Radon/14C, air quality, energy
    sales/consumption
  • This session and the work in recent years heralds
    a renewed interest in the topic and a broadening
    of motivations and methods

3
History evolution of estimates
  • Motivation
  • Explain observed CO2 rise
  • Support climate change projections
  • Work in the 1980s
  • Keeling (1978)
  • Rotty global national inventory
  • Marland
  • Global 0-D UN production for years 1950-1982
  • UN consumption _at_ 5º x 5º for average year

4
Evolution of estimates continued
Marland and Rotty, 1984 using consumption
5º x 5º with population ? and industrial
concentration
5
Adding more space time
Rotty seasonal global and regional (captured
87 of globe) Found ptp of 24 of the annual
mean. Andres et al., 1996 moved to 1º x
1º with decadel res time series EDGAR in the late
1990s - more sectoral/fuel detail
6
Other disciplines
  • Atm chemistry campaigns Trace-P
  • Modeling efforts
  • NOx, CO, VOCs
  • IPCC integrated assessment - combining
    socioeconomics and energy systems analysis (well
    come back to this)

7
We thought we were done!
By the 00s, the carbon cycle community
considered the fossil CO2 problem solved at
least to the extent that was needed.
Focus on missing sink, terrestrial net uptake
8
What have we been using?
1 degree resolution Sales, consumption at
national level with pop for proxy spatial
9
Why is this no longer adequate?
1. Inversions moving to smaller scales driven,
in part, by planned satellite CO2 measurements
(OCO)
  • Inversion moving to smaller scales driven, in
    part, by planned satellite CO2 measurements (OCO)
  • There is likely bias lurking (pop not best proxy)
  • California electricity
  • Interstates
  • Diurnal, seasonal cycles
  • local climate policy has emerged in many
    places significant need for spatiotemporal
    information
  • inadequate for dynamic, process understanding

NACP Science Implementation Strategy (Denning,
editor), 2005 Fossil emissions are the dominant
net source of CO2 in North America. State- or
county-level inventories of fossil fuel emissions
must be downscaled using emission models driven
by statistics of power and industrial plant
usage, locations, pop ?, weather, vehicular
traffic, and other data.. The goal is to provide
daily or subdiurnal gridded emissions estimates
commensurate with the lt10 km flux analyses
10
Why is this no longer adequate?
  • Inversions moving to smaller scales driven, in
    part, by planned satellite CO2 measurements (OCO)
  • There is likely bias lurking (pop not best proxy)
  • California electricity
  • Interstates
  • Diurnal, seasonal cycles
  • local climate policy has emerged in many
    places significant need for spatiotemporal
    information
  • inadequate for dynamic, process understanding
  • 2. There is likely bias lurking (pop not best
    proxy)
  • California electricity
  • Interstates
  • Diurnal, seasonal cycles

11
Why is this no longer adequate?
  • Inversion moving to smaller scales driven, in
    part, by planned satellite CO2 measurements (OCO)
  • There is likely bias lurking (pop not best proxy)
  • California electricity
  • Interstates
  • Diurnal, seasonal cycles
  • local climate policy has emerged in many
    places significant need for spatiotemporal
    information
  • inadequate for dynamic, process understanding

3. local climate policy has emerged in many
places significant need for spatiotemporal
information
12
New approaches?
  • Our Options
  • Downscale further?
  • Better proxies?
  • Scale with other pollutants?
  • Energy modeling?

Goal
what sources burn when, where and why?????
13
The latest wave
  • There is now a growing community of researchers
    tackling various aspects of high resolution CO2
    emissions
  • Petron, Frost and colleagues CEM and mobile
    emissions
  • Gurney, Fischer and colleagues 10s km and hourly
  • Andres, Gregg state level and monthly
  • Hirsch 14C/Radon
  • Pataki urban
  • Blasing, Broniak Marland state level/monthly
  • Ackerman Sundquist point comparisons

14
1st HRFF meeting
  • Meeting at Purdue Spring 07
  • Prioritize
  • Strategize
  • Plan proposals, collaborative work
  • This work can contribute to more than C science

15
Hestia
Build a global high resolution fossil/industrial
CO2 model-data fusion system that is fully
process-driven Google Earth Emissions
16
Thank you
Thank You
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