Evaluating the options for economically, socially and ecologically sustainable agriculture - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Evaluating the options for economically, socially and ecologically sustainable agriculture PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 6fbdd9-ZDk0O



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Evaluating the options for economically, socially and ecologically sustainable agriculture

Description:

Economic modelling Eric Audsley Daniel Sandars Agronomic Advice Phil Strachan Model Integration Ira Cooke Bill Sutherland Evaluating the options for economically, – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:3
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 9
Provided by: Ira126
Learn more at: http://www.relu.ac.uk
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Evaluating the options for economically, socially and ecologically sustainable agriculture


1
Evaluating the options for economically,socially
and ecologically sustainable agriculture
  • Farmer preferences
  • Elizabeth Mattison
  • Anil Graves
  • Alison Bailey
  • Joe Morris
  • Paul Trawick
  • Weed modelling and surveys
  • Simon Queenborough
  • Rob Freckleton
  • Andrew Watkinson
  • Bird surveys and modelling
  • BTO volunteers
  • Gavin Siriwardena
  • Phil Atkinson
  • Juliet Vickery
  • Ken Norris
  • Economic modelling
  • Eric Audsley
  • Daniel Sandars
  • Agronomic Advice
  • Phil Strachan
  • Model Integration
  • Ira Cooke
  • Bill Sutherland

2
Broad objective
  • Our main aim is to integrate sociology,
    agricultural science, economics and ecology to
    explain and ultimately predict the impacts of
    economic, environmental, technological and social
    changes on farming practice, farm livelihoods and
    farm biodiversity.
  • We have concentrated upon the weeds and birds.

3
Linked Model
Individual farmer land-use model
4
Farmer behaviour
  • 46 Farms. All farmers interviewed
  • 16 Key management objectives identified through
    pilot surveys
  • Satisfaction curves and relative preference
    weights for 16 management objectives elicited
  • Results interpreted in a multi-attribute utility
    theory framework
  • Farmer preferences quantitatively integrated with
    the economic decision making model
  • Detailed management information collected for 10
    fields on each farm will enable comparison of
    predicted and actual decisions

5
Modelling arable land-use
Detailed mixed integer programming model of the
farming system
  • Profit optimization module
  • Timing of operations
  • Areas of each crop
  • Rotations
  • Profit consequences of all farmer preferences
  • Farmer preference modules
  • Crop complexity
  • Risk
  • ELS options
  • Specific management (eg winter stubbles)

Modelled vs Actual cropping across arable farms
(FBS data 2005)
Modelled vs Actual cropping on individual farms
(FBS data 2000-2005)
6
Arable weeds
  • Same 46 arable farms
  • 10 fields per farm
  • Fields monitored down to 20m x 20m scale
  • 3 surveys per year
  • 7 weed species
  • 3million data points

46 x Farms
Fields
7
Bird surveys
  • Bird counts and habitat data collected at a large
    scale
  • Bird and habitat surveys by BTO Volunteers at
    898 lowland arable squares each with 2 visits
  • Bird densities, Landscape features, cropping,
    linear features and soils recorded along 2km
    transect

Detailed habitat maps collected on our 46 farms
HH Hedge Height, HWHedge Width, TTree
presence, S1One sided strip width
8
Examples of questions
  • (1) Widely fluctuating commodity prices have
    been accompanied by rising input costs at the
    same time as climate change is leading
    to increasingly unreliable weather conditions.
    What are the likely outcomes of farmers responses
    to these increased levels of risk on cropping
    decisions, and consequently on farmland bird and
    weed populations?
  • (2) What would be the biodiversity consequences
    of phasing out or reduction in size of the single
    farm payment?
  • (3) What elements of farmer's management
    practice can be predicted from a pure profit
    maximisation approach, and what elements
    are determined much more by farmer preferences.  
    In particular, how would the uptake of
    environmental subsidy schemes be affected by
    the combined effects of economics and individual
    farmer preference?
  • (4) What are the most cost effective policy
    options for increasing farmland bird
    populations.?
  • (5) How would the effectiveness of environmental
    policy options differ if the distribution of
    farmer preferences were to change, (eg through
    demographic change)?
About PowerShow.com