Nuclear%20Renaissance%20and%20Nonproliferation%20in%20North-East%20Asia

1
Nuclear Renaissance and Nonproliferation in
North-East Asia

• Hua HAN
• Associate Professor
• School of International Affairs
• Beijing University

2
Nuclear Renaissance worldwide and East Asia

• Relative good record of nuclear power in terms of
  safety and environment
• roughly 440 commercial nuclear reactors operating
  in the globe, among them, 104 are operating in
  the US, and around 90 are in Northeast Asia
• nuclear power was seen as a viable alternative
  for energy need by East Asian countries
• approximately 40 nuclear power reactors are under
  construction around the world, China is one of
  the fastest nuclear power developers
• the large number of reactors will be optional in
  the next few decades

3
Japans nuclear industry

• After Japan's first commercial nuclear power
  plant began operation in 1966, Japan has
  fifty-five reactors operating around the country
  with a total output of 49,467 megawatts (MW).
  Nuclear power accounts for approximately
  one-third of the country's total electric power
  output.

http//www.japannuclear.com/nuclearpower/program/m
itigation.html
4
South Korea

• The total electrical generation capacity of the
  nuclear generators of South Korea is over 17.5
  GWe. This is 28.5 of the generation capacity but
  supplies 45 of total electrical consumption,
  maintaining high capacity factors of over 95.

5
China's Nuclear Power Industry

• By the end of 2008, China had a total of
  installed nuclear power capacity at 8.85 million
  KW accounting 1.1 of chinas total installed
  power capacity
• During 2002-2007, the quantity of nuclear power
  Units in China has increased to 11 from 7
• According to the Long and Medium-Term Planning
  for Nuclear Power Development, 2005-2010, the
  proportion of installed nuclear power capacity is
  expected to reach at 4 by 2020, and the nuclear
  power output is expected to reach about 260-280
  billion KWh by 2020
• During 2005-2010, the CAGR of chinas installed
  nuclear power capacity is expected to maintain at
  11.9, and the figure is expected to rise at
  12.8 during 2010-2020

6
Wang Jianchen, Prospects for Spent Fuel
Management of China in the Future
7
Driving forces behind East Asian renaissance

• Poor in natural resources
• Surging growth of energy demand
• Dependence on imported oil and gas, and security
  of oil line
• Oil price exposure
• Climate change, reduce CO2 emissions in particular

8
Climate change and nuclear renaissance

• Implications of nuclear renaissance for nuclear
  safety and proliferation
• Security of nuclear material
• Spent fuel issue
• Diversion of nuclear programs
• Spent fuel issue
• Japans Pu reprocessing
• Leakage of Know-how in nuclear states to
  non-haves
• Terrorism and nuclear weapons

9
Katsuta T. and Suzuka T., Multilateral Nuclear
Fuel Cycle Approach in East Asia Analysis of
Past Proposals and Possible New Approaches
including Japan.
10
Wang Jianchen, Prospects for Spent Fuel
Management of China in the Future
11
Wang Jianchen, Prospects for Spent Fuel
Management of China in the Future
12
Wang Jianchen, Prospects for Spent Fuel
Management of China in the Future
13
Chinas efforts on nonproliferation

• Means -- Technical efforts
• --institutional efforts
• --bilateral/multilateral cooperation
• Dimensions
• policy
• strategy

14
Technical efforts

• Material protection
• To introduce fast reactor (FR) and the associated
  closed fuel cycle will allow us to make full use
  of uranium resources and achieve the minimization
  of nuclear waste, thus ensure the sustainable
  development of nuclear energy
• To establish commercial spent fuel processing
  facilities
• Safety measures for safety of nuclear research
  and commercial reactors

15
Institutional efforts

• Law/regulations
• From administrative control to law control
• Bureau in MFA and Department of Commerce
• Arms control bureau in 1997 CACDA
• Export control bureau in 1999(?) (Export Control
  Commission of Expertise)
• White papers

16
Bilateral/multilateral cooperation

• Bilateral arrangements and discussions
• China-US, including environmental cooperation
• China-EU
• Accessed to multilateral regimes
• Except Wassenna arrangement and PSI, all major
  arms control regimes, including NSG and MTCR
• Role free rider to active player
• More agenda-setter in near future
• Rule/norms creating

17
East Asian cooperation for nuclear
nonproliferation and security

• Six-party talks
• ARF framework
• Still lack of regional cooperation

18
Way ahead for China

• -- Nonproliferation policy should be reshaped to
  cope with the emerging challenges, such as the
  new nuclear boom and climate changes
• Nuclear disarmament ?
• Other energy alternatives
• -- In East Asia, possible cooperation
• Nuclear spent fuel
• Fissile Material bank?
• Asian Atomic Agency?
• Technology transfer/assistance from high-tech
  states