RTE Cereal Consumption Trends in the 90s What Sells Cereals and Where?

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RTE Cereal Consumption Trends in the 90sWhat
Sells Cereals and Where?

• By Jim Eales

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Goal

• To examine the changes in cereal sales across
  regions of the US in the 90s by the nutritional
  content of the cereals.

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Grocery Marketing Data 1990

• Sales Area Marketing, Inc (SAMI), a former
  product-tracking services division of Arbitron.
• Warehouse withdrawals
• 54 Markets made up of US counties
• Covers 85 of US branded grocery sales
• Indices measuring sales per household for 160 RTE
  Cereals

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Grocery Marketing Data 1999

• Nielsen Homescan data from 7195 households 6068
  of which are in Nielsen Scantrack Markets.
• Counties making up each Nielsen Scantrack Market
  are given in Market Scope. Fortunately, our
  library had the 1999 edition.
• Each households purchases from various product
  modules including RTE Cereal can be used to
  calculate sales per household indices for each
  market.

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Methods

• Determined cereals which I could identify as
  common to both sets of data.
• Turned out to be 77 cereals, that I could
  identify. There are probably others.

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Problem

• Changes in the sales indexes from 1990 to 1999
  were too big to be believed.
• Some of the Scantrack markets have only as little
  as 5 households in the Homescan sample.

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Solution

• I aggregated SAMI and Nielsen markets up to 8
  super regions (California, West, E North Central,
  W. North Central, Mid South, Deep South,
  Northeast, and New York).
• Minimum number of Nielsen households is now about
  350 and the average is 700.

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Map Color Schemes

• I use the spectrum of colors for each map
  starting at least violet through indigo, blue,
  green, light green, yellow, orange, and red.
• For example

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• I then ranked cereals by ratings or nutrient
  content and identified the top (or bottom) 10
  cereals.
• I calculated an index of sales per household for
  these 10 cereals for SAMI and for Nielsen.
• I then took the ratio (Nielsen/SAMI).
• If the ratio is less (greater) than one for a
  region then sales per household declined
  (increased) between 1990 and 1999.

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Consumer Reports

• Rated cereals based on nutrition (October, 1986)
• I used the information on DASL to get ratings.
• Ratings are weighted averages of protein, fat,
  fiber, sugar, and sodium.

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Highest Rated Cereals Rating
Special K 50.1
Oat Bran 50.5
Grape Nuts 51.3
Nutri Grain 54.7
Heath Valley 55.4
Puffed Rice 60.9
Uncle Sam 62.2
Puffed Wheat 68.9
All Bran 69.8
Fiber One 87.9
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Lowest Rated Cereals Rating
Cap'n Crunch 20.2
Cap'n Crunch Christmas 20.2
Cap'n Crunch with Crunch Berries 20.7
Frankenberry 21.1
Cinnamon Toast 21.2
Boo Berry 21.3
Count Chocula 23.0
Cap'n Crunch Peanut Butter 23.1
Fruity Pebbles 23.2
Trix 23.8
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Nutrients
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Low Fat Cereals Fat (g)
Health Valley 0
Cornflakes 0.1
Post Toasties 0.1
Sun Flakes 0.1
Frosted Flakes 0.15
Corn Pops 0.22
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Rice 0.27
Quaker Puffed Rice 0.27
Corn Chex 0.27
Double Chex 0.27











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Low Sodium Cereals Sodium (mg)
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Rice 1.5
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Wheat 1.5
Quaker Puffed Rice 1.5
Quaker Puffed Wheat 1.5
Health Valley 49
Uncle Sam 62
All Bran 77
Cracklin Oat Bran 86
Quaker Oat Bran 109
Corn Pops 116
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High Fiber Cereals Fiber (g)
Fiber One 14 (58)
All Bran 10
Uncle Sam 6
Bran Flakes 5
Crunchy Bran 5
Skinner Raisin Bran 4
Post Raisin Bran 4
Kelloggs Raisin Bran 4
Multi Bran Chex 4
Cracklin Oat Bran 4
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Low Sugar Cereals Sugar (g)
Fiber One 0
Nutri Grain 0
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Rice 0
Quaker Puffed Rice 0
Malt-O-Meal Puffed Wheat 0.4
Quaker Puffed Wheat 0.4
Uncle Sam 0.5
Malt-O-Meal Toasty Os 1.0
Cheerios 1.3
Cornflakes 2.2
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High Sugar Cereals Sugar (g)
Apple Jacks 15
Froot Loops 14
Frankenberry 14
Count Chocula 14
Cocoa Puffs 14
Boo Berry 14
Corn Pops 14
Cocoa Crisp 14
Cap'n Crunch w Crunch Berries 13
Fruity Pebbles 13
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Summary
Cereal Characteristic Regions Increasing Highest-Lowest Ratios Biggest Increase Biggest Decrease
Highest Rated 4 0.4 West Mid South
Lowest Rated 5 1.17 California E North Cent
Low Fat 4 0.58 Mid South E North Cent West
Low Sodium 3 0.8 Mid South California
High Fiber 4 0.65 E North Cent California
Low Sugar 7 0.47 California Mid South
High Sugar 3 1.26 West Mid South
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Summary

• Low Sodium cereals increased in the most regions.
• Lowest Rated High Sugar had the biggest
  differences in ratios.
• Regions with the biggest changes are
  California, West, East North Central, and Mid
  South.

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Conclusions

• Nutrition doesnt seem to be playing a big role
  in cereal consumption, probably because bad
  cereals are often healthier than the
  alternatives.
• The difference between Low High Sugar cereals
  is over stated because of added sugar.
• Probably the biggest asset RTE cereal continues
  to enjoy is convenience.