Relationship Between Viral Hemorrhagic Fever Outbreaks and Temperature Perturbations

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Relationship Between Viral Hemorrhagic Fever
Outbreaks and Temperature Perturbations

• Nick Culpepper

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Viral Hemorrhagic Fever

• Hemorrhagic Fevers are often severe, life
  threatening diseases characterized by bleeding
  and extremely high fevers
• For this study, 4 of the most severe were chosen
• Ebola
• Marburg
• Lassa
• Rift Valley

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Source of the Data

• Cases/Deaths
• World Health Organization (WHO)
• Centers for Disease Control (CDC)
• Temperature/Variation
• World Climate
• NCEP

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Relationships Considered

• Actual Temperature vs Cases
• Actual Temperature vs Deaths
• Temperature Perturbation vs Cases
• Temperature Perturbation vs Deaths
• Actual Temperature vs Mortality Rate
• Temperature Perturbation vs Mortality Rate

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Regression Error
  Regression Slope s slope Low High
Actual Temperature vs Cases -0.5018 20.8584 -43.3769 42.3734
Actual Temperature vs Deaths 1.6829 10.2753 -19.4383 22.8041
Temp. Perturbation vs Cases 10.856 79.8431 -153.2637 174.9758
Temp. Perturbation vs Deaths 20.2681 34.541 -50.732 91.2682
Actual Temperature vs Mortality Rate 0.9957 2.8597 -4.8825 6.8739
Temp. Perturbation vs Mortality Rate 5.6906 10.1877 -15.2506 26.6317
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Correlation Coefficients
  Corr. Coefficient Probability
Actual Temperature vs Cases -0.0245 0.9015
Actual Temperature vs Deaths 0.1646 0.4025
Temp. Perturbation vs Cases 0.1372 0.4862
Temp. Perturbation vs Deaths 0.5132 0.0052
Actual Temperature vs Mortality Rate 0.3344 0.082
Temp. Perturbation vs Mortality Rate 0.4947 0.0074
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Possible Errors

• Different viruses
• Different Vectors/Pathways
• Mortality Rates
• Too Few Major Outbreaks
• Poor Temperature Records
• Remote Areas
• Extended, Ill defined periods of time

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Questions?