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The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market

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Title: The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market


1
The Changing Face of the Texas Labor Market
  • Labor Market Career Information (LMCI)
  • Texas Workforce Commission
  • richard.froeschle_at_twc.state.tx.us
  • (512) 936-3105

2
Harry Truman is purported to have said,
  • All my economists say, on the one, or on the
    other handwhat I really need is a one-handed
    economist.

3
Is it a recovery or an expansion? Is the
difference economic or a crisis in confidence?
Excess bank reserves
European debt crisis
Volatile stock market
Consistently higher energy prices
Inflation
Mortgages underwater
U.S. Debt Crisis
Persistently high unemployment
4
Corporate profits are up, but not payments to
workers
5
Consumers are staying in cash
6
Disposable Personal Income is Flat
7
Consumer and Business Confidence remains low
Iraq War
Hurricane Katrina
Debt Ceiling Debate?
Great Recession
8
Is the Economic Glass Half Full?
or Half Empty?
  • Unemployment rate falling
  • More sectors contribute to job growth
  • Corporations cash-rich
  • 31 months of job growth
  • Spending is up, consumers lowering debt burden
  • Consumer confidence is improving
  • House prices near bottom?
  • UI initial claims are down
  • Real estate, construction and govt. still reeling
  • European debt/bank crisis still looming
  • Slowing global GDP?
  • Energy/gas prices?
  • Lack of confidence in demand, political system
  • Still tight lending standards terms
  • Net worth down9.4 tril from peak

9
Fight of the Century Keynes vs. Hayek
10
The global labor market is very messy
11
(No Transcript)
12
Comparative Total Population Change in Texas
2000-2010
2000 Population 2010 Population ABS CHG 2000-10 PCT CHG 2000-10
United States 281,421,906 308,745,538 27,323,632 9.7
Texas 20,851,820 25,145,561 4,293,741 20.6
California 33,871,648 37,253,956 3,382,308 10.0
Florida 15,982,378 18,801,310 2,818,932 17.6
Georgia 8,186,453 9,687,653 1,501,200 18.3
North Carolina 8,049,313 9,535,483 1,486,170 18.5
Arizona 5,130,632 6,392,017 1,261,385 24.6
Decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010 Decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010 Decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010 Decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010 Decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010
13
Texas Population Change 2000-10
Where Texans Live
Where Texans have moved
14
Texas becomes more Hispanic
15
Tough Competition Generational Employment in
Texas 2000 - 2010
16
How many Millenials does it take to screw in a
light bulb?
  • 1. One to the instructions
  • 2. One to post the instructions on the wall of
    their page
  • 3. One to post the video of their
    work showing collaboration
  • One Baby Boomer to tell them what a terrific,
    wonderful, spectacular job they did with the
    light bulb

17
Texas Labor Market Statistics (SA)Local Area
Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
April 2012 Mar 2012 April 2011
Texas Labor Force (141,000 YOY) 12.568 Mil 12.539 Mil 12.427 Mil
Texas Unemployed (-130,000 YOY) 862,900 881,000 992,900
Texas U Rate 6.9 7.0 8.0
U.S. Labor Force (945,000 YOY) 154.365 Mil 154.707 Mil 153.420 Mil
U.S. Unemployed (-1,292,000 YOY) 12,500,000 12,673,000 13,792,000
U.S. Urate 8.1 8.2 9.0
18
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19
Declining Rates of Workforce Participation
LFPR
E/P
20
Regional Job Growth RatesBig 10 Texas metro
areas 4th Quarter to 4th Quarter
Metro area 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Austin-Round Rock 4.9 -0.01 -3.0 3.1 3.3
Beaumont-Port Arthur 1.2 1.7 -6.0 1.9 1.2
Brownsville-Harlingen 1.7 -0.5 -0.6 1.9 0.3
Corpus Christi 2.8 1.4 -3.9 0.7 1.9
Dallas-Fort Worth 2.5 -0.01 -4.5 1.7 2.3
El Paso 3.0 0.1 -1.7 2.2 2.4
Houston-Baytown 4.4 1.1 -3.9 1.7 2.8
McAllen-Edinburg 3.2 1.6 -0.8 1.6 1.6
San Antonio 2.1 1.0 -2.1 1.7 1.9
Victoria 0.4 -0.2 -5.4 1.9 2.4
Source Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages,
Texas Workforce Commission
21
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22
Texas 2000-2011 3rd Quarter Wages
23
Texas Goods producing Industries Employment Index
1995-2012
24
Texas Industry Growth March 2011-12 YOY
NAICS Industry March 2012 ABS CHG Yearly
Total Nonfarm 10,741,700 245,700 2.3
Total Private Sector 8,960,100 300,600 3.5
Goods producing 1,677,200 65,000 4.0
Service-providing 8,686,300 180,700 2.0
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 2,143,400 54,900 2.6
Professional and Business Services 1,373,900 51,000 3.9
Leisure and Hospitality 1,084,400 49,900 4.8
Educational and Health Services 1,454,600 47,500 3.4
Mining and Logging 261,900 36,400 16.1
Manufacturing 850,400 23,700 2.9
Financial Activities 652,100 16,400 2.6
Other Services 378,200 14,300 3.9
Construction 564,900 4,900 0.9
Information 196,300 1,600 0.8
Government 1,781,600 -54,900 -3.0
25
Eagle Ford Shale 24 county region
  1. 1.3 billion in gross state product, 2.9 total
    output
  2. 511 million in salaries (2010)
  3. Supports 12,601 jobs
  4. 108 million in tax revenues
  5. 2,828 drilling permits issued through 2011

26
Quits are up. Layoffs are Flat. Implications?
Quits
Layoffs
27
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28
Texas New Hires 1stQTR2011
Texas New Hires from the Census Bureau LED Database New Hires (2011 Q1) New Hires (2010 Q1)
Industry (NAICS subsector code) 646,697 564,799
1 Food Services and Drinking Places (722) 85,211 76,519
2 Administrative and Support Services (561) 68,810 60,743
3 Ambulatory Health Care Services (621) 48,226 45,319
4 Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (541) 42,418 36,379
5 Specialty Trade Contractors (238) 20,265 19,413
6 General Merchandise Stores (452) 24,710 21,264
7 Nursing and Residential Care Facilities (623) 16,905 16,192
8 Credit Intermediation and Related Activities (522) 16,110 15,245
9 Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods (423) 14,946 11,255
10 Food and Beverage Stores (445) 14,740 14,002
11 Hospitals (622) 15,202 14,690
12 Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (448) 18,074 15,995
13 Social Assistance and Child Care(624) 12,438 11,397
14 Support Activities for Mining (213) 12,873 6,969
15 Construction of Buildings (236) 9,407 8,965
29
Growth Occupations (most jobs) for Texas for 2008-2018 Growth Occupations (most jobs) for Texas for 2008-2018 Growth Occupations (most jobs) for Texas for 2008-2018 Growth Occupations (most jobs) for Texas for 2008-2018
Type of Job Annual Openings Decade Growth Rate Required education/training
1. Fast Food Prep Worker 7,845 42 Short-term On Job Training
2. Elementary School Teacher 6,110 39 Bachelors degree
3. Retail Salesperson 5,430 15 Moderate On Job Training
4. Registered Nurse 5,365 32 Associates degree
5. Home Health Aide 5,105 55 Short-term On Job Training
6. Customer Service Rep 5,005 23 Moderate On Job Training
7. Waitress/Waiter 4,530 24 Short-term On Job Training
8. Personal Home Care Aide 4,400 47 Short-term On Job Training
9. Office Clerk 3,960 17 Short-term On Job Training
10. Cashier 3,690 13 Short-term On Job Training
11. Secondary School Teacher 3,105 31 Bachelors degree
12. Construction Worker 3,090 22 Moderate On Job Training
30
Fastest Growing Texas Occupations 2018 - Projected
Growth Occupations Education preferred 2009 Salary
1. Biomedical Engineers Bachelor's degree 66,729
2. Home Health Aides Short-term OJT 18,849
3. Network Systems Data Communications Analysts Bachelor's degree 76,420
4. Petroleum Engineers Bachelor's degree 126,241
5. Athletic Trainers Bachelor's degree 45,873
6. Personal Home Care Aides Short-term OJT 16,211
7. Electrical Electronics Repairers, Powerhouse, Substation Relay Postsecondary vocational training 55,250
8. Financial Examiners Bachelor's degree 76,359
9. Medical Scientists Doctoral degree 64,386
10. Special Education Teachers Bachelor's degree 49,856
31
Expected Growth Occupations in STEM in Expected Growth Occupations in STEM in Texas 2008-2018
Type of Job Minimum Required Pay Range
1. Registered Nurse Associates degree 48,000 - 75,000
2. Accountant/Auditor Bachelors degree 40,000 - 82,000
3. Computer Systems Analyst Bachelors degree 50,000 - 97,000
4. Computer Support Specialist Associates degree 31,000 - 62,000
5. Software Engineer Bachelors degree 62,000 - 113,000
6. Computer Programmer Bachelors degree 45,000 - 97,000
7. Financial Manager Bachelors degree 63,000 - 138,000
8. Computer Network Admin Bachelors degree 44,000 - 82,000
9. Civil Engineer Bachelors degree 53,000 - 107,000
10. Pharmacy Technician Moderate training 23,000 - 34,000
11. Medical Manager Masters degree 53,000 - 109,000
12. Financial Analyst Bachelors degree 47,000 - 96,000
13. Pharmacist Masters degree 90,000 - 122,000
32
Texas Job Posting Activity The Conference Board
HWOL
33
Where The Job Postings Are Located?
Metro Area Postings Metro Area Postings
Dallas-Fort Worth 166,078 Odessa 5,301
Houston-Sugar Land 129,406 Waco 5,280
San Antonio 55,978 Beaumont 5,274
Austin-Round Rock 53,225 Midland 4,835
El Paso 12,264 Amarillo 4,742
Corpus Christi 9,831 College Station 4,519
Killeen-Temple 7,885 Longview 3,796
McAllen-Edinburg 7,053 Abilene 3,776
Tyler 6,626 Brownsville 3,503
Lubbock 6,559 Laredo 2,877
Based on Job Postings listed online for previous
90 days as Feb. 20, 2012, compiled by Wanted
Analytics and the Conference Board for TWC
34
Texas HWOL Job Postings Last 90 Days April 2012 Texas HWOL Job Postings Last 90 Days April 2012 Texas HWOL Job Postings Last 90 Days April 2012
Occupational Title Postings Preferred education
1. Registered Nurse 30,836 Associates/Bachelors
2. Truck Driver (heavy/tractor trailer) 18,497 Short term OJT
3. Retail Salesperson 15,803 Short term OJT
4. Computer Systems Analyst 15,574 Bachelors degree
5. Manager of Retail Workers 14,919 Related Work Experience
6. Customer Service Representative 12,674 Moderate OJT
7. Web Developer 12,598 Associates degree
8. Computer Support Specialist 11,776 Associates degree
9. Manager of Food Prep Workers 10,721 Related Work Experience
10. Accountant 9,825 Bachelors degree
11. Non-technical Sales Rep, WH Man 9,627 Related Work Experience
12. Network/Computer Systems Admin 9,613 Bachelors degree
13. Secretary/Admin Assistant 9,510 Moderate OJT
35
Jobs Titles That Didnt Exist Just 5 Years Ago Jobs Titles That Didnt Exist Just 5 Years Ago
Job Title Job Title
1. App Developer 11. Content Developer/Manager
2. Market Researcher Data Miner 12. Product Blogger
3. Educational Admissions Consultant 13. Disaster Recovery IT Manager
4. User Experience Designer 14. Cyborg Anthropologist
5. Social Media Manager 15. Interior Redesigner
6. Chief Listening Officer 16. Chief Sustainability Officer
7. Cloud Computing Operations Manager 17. Energy Manager
8. Elder Care Services Consultant 18. Senior Citizen Move Manager
9. Search Engine Optimization Manager 19. Patient Advocate
10. Millennial Generation Consultant 20. Online Reputation Manager
Source Forbes magazine and Monster.com
36
Education Mismatch Texas Unemployed vs. Job
Postings
Education Requirement 2011 WIT Job Applicants HWOL 2011 Postings
Doctoral Degree 0.6 .8
Professional Degree 0.3 1.6
Masters Degree 0.9 3.6
Bachelors Work Experience 3.4 7.8
Bachelors Degree 8.5 22.7
Associates Degree 2.0 10.0
Post-secondary Vocational 4.0 9.3
Job related work experience 5.4 9.2
Long-term On The Job training 6.2 4.4
Medium-term On The Job training 22.4 15.4
Short-term On The Job training 46.3 15.3
Source Help Wanted On Line listings for Texas and Texas Workforce Commission listings for Work In Texas database
47
84
37
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38
Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Summary Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Summary Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Summary
Bachelors Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings
Engineering 4,554 51,131
Health Professions Related Clinical Sciences 7,644 50,813
Engineering Technologies/Technicians 951 46,075
Computer Information Sciences 1,356 44,408
Business, Management Marketing 21,153 36,261
Mathematics and Statistics 914 33,296
Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies 10,082 31,888
Physical Sciences 1,103 30,828
Liberal Arts Sciences/Humanities 2,359 30,074
Teacher Education Development /Special Ed 1,505 29,594
Agriculture Agriculture Operations 1,804 28,195
Unknown or Undeclared 2,247 27,812
Public Administration Social Service 1,174 27,456
Security Protective Services 2,783 27,039
Social Sciences 6,227 26,795
39
Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View
Bachelors Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings
Petroleum Engineering 271 84,961
Quality Control/Safety Technology 30 61,113
Chemical Engineering 405 60,791
Ocean Engineering 71 59,411
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 4,745 59,359
Electrical Electronic Engineering 111 55,332
Mechanical Engineering 1,224 53,307
Construction Engineering 54 50,594
Health Diagnostic Treatment Professions 375 49,202
Engineering Science 29 48,601
Computer Systems Networking/Telecomm 26 48,411
Computer Engineering, General 189 47,815
Engineering, General 41 47,751
Computer Systems Analysis 114 47,747
Information Technology Admin Mgmt 64 47,524
40
Lowest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View Lowest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View Lowest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View
Bachelors Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings
Pastoral Counseling Specialized Ministries 60 15,205
Germanic Languages Literature 46 17,444
Film/Video and Photographic Arts 142 17,619
Dramatic/Theatre Arts Stagecraft 529 18,304
Classical Languages, Literatures Linguistics 35 18,342
English Composition 44 19,903
Religious Education 56 20,122
Ecology, Evolution and Population Biology 87 20,156
Anthropology 460 20,310
Radio, Television Digital Communication 983 20,413
Health/Medical Preparatory Programs 93 20,547
Parks Recreation Facilities Management 139 20,558
Bible/Biblical Studies 55 20,860
Zoology/Animal Biology 102 21,372
Fine and Studio Art 1,347 21,464
41
Highest Earning Associates Degree Programs 2010 Highest Earning Associates Degree Programs 2010 Highest Earning Associates Degree Programs 2010
Associates Degree Graduate Major (TX) Grads Earnings
Fire Protection 157 68,275
Nuclear Radiologic Technology 33 63,908
Electrical Power Transmission Installers 41 55,835
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 5,203 53,648
Mining and Petroleum Technology 24 50,241
Physical Science Technology 457 47,881
Electromechanical /Instrumentation Technology 397 46,151
Quality Control Safety Technology 133 44,685
Chemistry 56 44,599
Industrial Production Technology 97 44,138
Construction Engineering Technology 45 41,789
Mechanical Engineering Related Technology 29 41,622
Precision Metal Working 138 39,817
Electrical/Electronics Maintenance Technology 47 37,500
Dental Support Services Allied Professions 352 37,371
42
Structural Mismatch 2010 Graduates Grads Earnings
Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other 9,536 32,132
Business Administration, Mgmt Operations 6,056 40,473
Psychology, General 5,169 22,613
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration 4,745 59,359
Biology, General 4,517 21,737
Health and Physical Education/Fitness 3,457 23,454
Finance Financial Mgmt Services 3,269 37,160
Accounting Related Services 3,083 33,583
Marketing 2,884 31,693
Criminal Justice and Corrections 2,783 27,039
English Language and Literature, General 2,453 23,124
Liberal Arts, General Studies Humanities 2,359 30,074
History, General 2,245 24,016
Political Science Government 2,208 25,037
Public Relations Advertising 1,772 27,579
43
Trends in U.S. Bachelors Degrees Awarded
44
Emerging Markets in a Global EconomyPercent of
2009 Revenue Outside U.S.
  • YUM Brands 53.0
  • Du Pont 62.4
  • IBM 58.1
  • Boeing 42.2
  • Intel 80.0
  • Coca Cola 73.5
  • Corning 75.6
  • Emerson Electric 56.8
  • Accenture 56.4
  • Microsoft 43.4
  • Hewlett-Packard 63.9
  • Wal-Mart 36.2
  • JNJ 50.2
  • Caterpillar 61.8
  • Colgate 80.0
  • ExxonMobil 81.8
  • Campbell Soup 26.1
  • Kellogg 26.8
  • 3M Corporation 63.2
  • UPS 26.3

45
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46
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47
Short-term Forecasted Job Growth by Region
LWDA 2010 2011 2012 AVG 2009-12
Lower Rio Grande/Brownsville 2.5 2.8 2.8 2.7
Travis County/Austin 2.1 2.5 2.7 2.4
South Texas/McAllen 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2
Alamo/San Antonio 1.8 2.2 2.4 2.1
Rural Capital/Round Rock 1.9 2.2 2.2 2.1
Permian /Midland-Odessa 1.5 2.0 2.1 1.9
Central Texas/ Killeen-Temple 1.4 1.7 1.9 1.7
Upper Rio Grande/ El Paso 1.9 1.6 1.6 1.7
Brazos Valley/ Bryan 1.1 1.6 1.7 1.5
Heart of Texas/ Waco 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.4
North Central Texas/Plano 0.7 1.6 1.6 1.3
East Texas / Tyler 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.3
48
Employer Hiring Progression Shifting Business
Practices
  • Work existing full-time workers more hours
  • Move part-timers to full-time workers
  • Employ temporary or leased workers
  • Use contract workers for fixed periods
  • Reconsider work/hiring location based on
    potential growth markets cost structure
  • Outsource all non-core business functions
  • Consider strategic partnerships to increase
    sales, limit labor liability
  • Take advantage of H1B and L1 visas
  • Add full-time domestic employees (FTE)

49
Percent Job Losses in Recessions 1990-2007
Optimistic
Baseline
Pessimistic
50
Regional employers say they want
  • Good communications skills Can you..
  • Explain what youre doing (to co-worker or
    customer)?
  • Explain what you need (from a co-worker or
    customer)?
  • Ability to listen to instructions?
  • 2. Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence
    of events, can you determine what will probably
    happen next)
  • 3. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half
    of all job openings)
  • Can-do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who
    are engaged in their work)
  • Can you work with people who are of a different
    age, race, gender and education level than you?

51
Will
Getting a Job is a Function of Skill Will
Soft Skills
Skills
Distill
52
Will
Soft Skills
SkillsStrong academics High School diploma
Post secondary schooling Appropriate technical
skills
Distill
53
Will
Soft SkillsWorkplace Basics! Communication
skills Getting along with others Critical
thinking
Skills
Distill
54
Will
Soft Skills
Skills
Distill On the Job Training Informal
learning Continuing education Career
Lattice
55
Will Willing to take a job At
lower level For a lesser wage In a
different region
Soft Skills
Skills
Distill
56
Will Willing to take a job At
lower level For a lesser wage In a
different region
Soft SkillsWorkplace Basics! Communication
skills Getting along with others Critical
thinking
Skills Strong academics High School diploma
Post secondary schooling Appropriate technical
skills
Distill On the Job Training Informal
learning Continuing educationCareer Lattice
57
Welcome to Reality Check 2011!
58
There is much more story to tell, but this
version is over
  • Thank you!
  • richard.froeschle_at_twc.state.tx.us
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