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Consequences of consensus democracy

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Title: Consequences of consensus democracy


1
Consequences of consensus democracy

2
Structure
  • The impact of consensus and majoritarian
    democracies
  • Lijphart Patterns of Democracy Yale 1999
  • The effects of electoral systems
  • Pippa Norris Electoral Engineering CUP 2004
  • Next class Monday discussion exercise
  • Use Lijpharts theory to evaluate the new
    constitution and electoral system in Afghanistan.

3
I Impact of consensus v. majoritarian democracies
  • Is majoritarian democracy better at government
    and consensus democracy better at representation?
    Lijpharts indicators
  • Performance (Table 15.1)
  • Macroeconomic performance
  • Control of violence/riots/deaths
  • Representation (Table 16.1)
  • Womens inclusion
  • Voter Turnout
  • Satisfaction with democracy
  • Public policy outcomes

4
Impact on stability performance
Mean Majoritarian Consensus
Riots 1948-77 1.96 3.17
Political deaths 1948-77 6.86 2.41
Economic growth 1961-88 3.4 3.5
Inflation 1961-88 7.5 6.3
Unemployment 1965-88 6.1 4.4
Income top 20 1988 42.9 39.0
5
II. Impact of electoral systems
  • Proportionality of votes to seats (fair outcomes)
  • Party competition
  • Electoral turnout
  • Parliamentary representation
  • Women ethno-political minorities
  • Strength of cleavage politics
  • Constituency service
  • What criteria do you regard as most important?
    Why?

6
Recap Classification of systems
Adversarial


Majoritarian
7
Evidence
  • Aggregate effects
  • Classify electoral systems worldwide
  • Analyze results in elections for lower house
    1995-2000 in 143 nations
  • Individual-level effects
  • Comparative Study of Electoral Systems
  • 30 nations 1996-2001 survey battery

8
1. Impact on proportionality
  • Proportionality of votes to seats

Winning party
Perfect proportionality
20
2nd party, 3rd etc
Seat share
20
Vote share
9
ProportionalityRegressions of Votes to Seats
per party
10
Measures of proportionality
  • Loosemore-Hanby Index (D)
  • D __1__ S (vi si)
  • 2
  • Sums absolute difference between
  • Vote percentage (vi)
  • Seat percentage (si)
  • Divided by 2
  • (Slightly exaggerates disproportionality of
    systems with many small parties)
  • (Index was standardized to 100-point scale by
    Rose)

11
ProportionalityStandardized Loosemore-Hanby Index
12
Proportionality influenced by
  1. Number of parties in the electorate
  2. Geographical distribution of the vote
  3. District magnitude (members per district)
  4. Legal vote thresholds
  5. The type of electoral formulae eg dHondt etc

13
2. Impact on partiesDuvergers laws
  • (1) The plurality single-ballot rule tends to
    party dualism.
  • (2)The double-ballot system and proportional
    representation tend to multipartyism.
  • Maurice Duverger. 1954. Political Parties, Their
    Organization and Activity in the Modern State.
    New York Wiley.

14
Effect on parties
Ref Pippa Norris Institutions Matter CUP 2003
15
ENPP by Electoral System
Ref Pippa Norris Electoral Engineering CUP 2004
16
A 5 increase in disproportionality reduces the
ENPP by half a party Lijphart p168
17
3. Effect on TurnoutRef Pippa Norris 2002.
Democratic Phoenix Ch 4.
18
But also impact of compulsory voting
19
4. Impact on women
  • As a simple rule, women proved twice as likely
    to be elected under PR than majoritarian
    electoral systems.
  • Women were 10.8 percent of MPs in majoritarian
    systems, 15.1 percent in mixed or
    semi-proportional systems, and 19.8 percent of
    members in PR systems.
  • P.Norris in R.Rose Encyclopedia of Elections (CQ
    2001)

20
FPTP
Mixed
PR
21
But also other rules matter
Political culture societal development
Demand by selectors
Demand by voters
Electoral laws 1.Electoral system 2.Legal gender
quotas 3.Reserved seats
Candidate selection process within parties
4.Voluntary gender quotas
Pool of parliamentary candidates
Elected members
Supply of candidates
Equal opportunities in education, home and work
22
Legal gender quotas
Note Legal gender quotas for the lower house of
national parliaments laws which specify that
each party must include a minimum proportion of
women on party lists of candidates. Source Pippa
Norris Electoral Engineering Table 8.5
23
5. Impact on cleavage politics
Majoritarian
Combined
PR
Pippa Norris Electoral Engineering CUP 2004
24
6. Impact on constituency service?
With contact with elected member in last 12
months
Ref Pippa Norris Electoral engineering CUP 2004
25
Effects of electoral systems
  • Proportionality of votes to seats ?
  • Party competition ?
  • Electoral turnout ?
  • Parliamentary representation
  • Women ?
  • Ethno-political minorities (?)
  • Strength of cleavage politics ?
  • Constituency service ?

26
Next class Monday
  • Case study application
  • Apply Lijpharts theory to evaluate the new
    Afghanistan electoral system
  • What evaluative criteria are most important in
    this case?
  • Stability? Policy effectiveness? Gender?
    Ethnicity?
  • What does the new constitution propose?
  • How has the electoral system worked?
  • What are the consequences of the constitutional
    choices?
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