Extract Agent-based Model from Communication Network

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Extract Agent-based Model from Communication
Network

• Hung-Ching (Justin) Chen
• Matthew Francisco
• Malik Magdon-Ismail
• Mark Goldberg
• William Wallance
• RPI

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Goal
Given a societys communication history, can we

• Deduce something about nature of the society
• e.g., Do actors generally have a propensity to
  join small groups or large groups?
• Predict the societys future
• e.g., How many social groups are there after 3
  months?
• e.g., What is the distribution of group size?

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General Approach
Individual Behavior (Micro-Laws)
Learn
Societys History
Predict (Simulate)
Societys Future
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General Approach
Individual Behavior (Micro-Laws)
Learn
Predict (Simulate)
Societys Future
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Social Networks

• Individuals
• (Actors)

• Groups

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Social Networks

• Individuals
• (Actors)

1
2
- Join
- Leave

• Groups

3
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Social Networks

• Individuals
• (Actors)

1
- Join
- Leave

• Groups

- Disappear
- Appear
- Re-appear
3
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Societys History
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General Approach
Individual Behavior (Micro-Laws)
Learn
Societys History
Predict (Simulate)
Societys Future
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Modeling of Dynamics
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Example of Micro-Law
Actor X likes to join groups.
SMALL
LARGE
Parameter
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ViSAGEVirtual Simulation and Analysis of Group
Evolution
State Properties of Actors and Groups
Decide Actors Action
State
Normative Action
State
State update
Actor Choice
State
Process Actors Action
Feedback to Actors
Real Action
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General Approach
Individual Behavior (Micro-Laws)
Learn
Societys History
Predict (Simulate)
Societys Future
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Learning
?
Learn
?
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Groups Group Evolution
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Actors Types

• Leader prefer small group size and is most
  ambitious
• Socialite prefer medium group size and is medium
  ambitious
• Follower prefer large group size and is least
  ambitious

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Learning Actors Type

• Maximum log-likelihood learning algorithm
• Cluster algorithm
• EM algorithm

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Testing Simulation Data
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Testing Real Data
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General Approach
Individual Behavior (Micro-Laws)
Learn
Societys History
Predict (Simulate)
Societys Future
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Testing Simulations
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Prediction
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Prediction
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Future Work

• Test Other Predictions
• e.g., membership in a particular group
• Learn from Other Real Data
• e.g., emails and blogs

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Questions?