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THE ZONING AND CALCULATION OF AREAS ENDURED THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER DELTA

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Title: THE ZONING AND CALCULATION OF AREAS ENDURED THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LOWER MEKONG RIVER DELTA


1
THE ZONING AND CALCULATION OF AREAS ENDURED THE
EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE LOWER MEKONG
RIVER DELTA
ASIA GEOSPATIAL FORUM 2012
Authors Bao Thanh, Nguyen Thi Phuong, Bui Chi
Nam, Tran Tuan Hoang SUB INSTITUTE OF
HYDROMETEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTH VIETNAM
Presented by Bao Thanh
Ha Noi, 17 - 19 September 2012
2
CONTENTS
  • Introduction
  • Approach
  • Results
  • Conclusion

3
INTRODUCTION
  • In the Lower Mekong River Delta (LMRD), when
    climate change, the average sea water level will
    rise, especially in peak tidal water level will
    make the plain areas in the LMRD flooded and
    salinity boundary will be pushed deeper into
    inland. A significant portion of agricultural
    land in the coastal areas would be inundated by
    sea level rise (SLR). A consequence of drought is
    water shortage.
  • In order to develop properly an eco-agriculture
    structure and ensure national food security,
    forecast information of yield of rice production
    for each region and each province is
    indispensable. It is more necessary to forecast
    the rice yield in the context of fluctuated
    weather.

4
INTRODUCTION
  • The aim of this study is to research impacts of
    climate change on rice production under the
    climate change scenarios 2020, 2050, and 2100.
  • In this study, LMRD is divided into six
    sub-regions West of Hau River, Long
    Xuyen Quadrangle, Between of Tien-Hau River, Dong
    Thap Muoi (Plain of Reeds), East Coast, Ca Mau
    Peninsula

5
APPROACH
  • Simulation of rice crop yield in the
    agro-ecological sub-region
  • The study have conducted investigations and
    surveys of rice cultivation at 10 sampling
    locations in the six sub-regions which
    represented for typical rice-growing areas.
  • Data series (from 1989 to 2009) from
    meteorological stations in the six sub-regions.
    Required data for the model comprise of the
    maximum and minimum air temperature,
    precipitation and solar radiation.
  • DSSAT Model simulates yield and seasonal
    comparison with actual performance. Rice yield
    simulation on the basis of the elements to make
    rice yields as cultivation techniques, irrigation
    regimes, fertilizer, seed, weather, season, land
    and soil....

6
Six sub-regions, survey locations in LMRD
7
APPROACH
  • Drought index calculation
  • For the frequency of droughts, the study applied
    the Standardized Precipitation Index SPI (McKee
    et al. 1995), and just used term frequency of
    occurrence which was severe drought (SPI lt-1.5).
  • A simple term frequency is the ratio of the
    month, SPI lt-1.5 on the total number of months in
    the period 1979 to 2008.
  • SPI of Ca Mau station represent for the Ca Mau
    Peninsula, SPI of Rach Gia station represents for
    the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, West of Hau River and
    the SPI of Can Tho station represents for Between
    Tien - Hau River, Dong Thap Muoi, East Coast.

8
APPROACH
  • Inundation area
  • For zoning of inundation areas, study used data
    released from the project "Building a basic
    database of terrain hydrological information
    system for flood prevention and socio-economic
    development of the Cuu Long implemented by the
    National Remote Sensing Center .
  • The criteria of selected floodplains in the LMRD
    include
  • - The areas of lower elevation terrain 0.12
    meter, 0.30 meter and 0.75 meter according to the
    B2 scenario for 2020, 2050 and 2100
  • - The coastal area.
  • - The area is associated with the surface of
    rivers, lakes and canals connecting to the sea

9
APPROACH
  • Saltwater intrusion
  • For salinity, the study applied MIKE model to
    calculate salinity intrusion.
  • The upstream boundary are water levels at
    stations of Tan Chau and Chau Doc,
  • The estuary boundarie are water levels at 8
    stations of Cua Dai, Cua Tieu, Ba Lai, Ham Luong,
    Co Chien, Cung Hau, Dinh An and Tran De.
  • Data verification are the stations of My Thuan,
    My Hoa, Nam Can, Ca Mau, Soc Trang (5 stations).

10
Network and cross sction of LMRD hydraulic model
11
RESULTS
  • To simulate effect of the rice yield caused by
    climate change in the future, it is based on the
    average emission scenarios (scenario B2 as
    recommended by the Ministry of Natural Resources
    and Environment ). Below are the B2 scenarios of
    the changes in temperature and rainfall in LMRD.

12
The reduction in rice yield simulation of LMRD
under climate
RESULTS
RICE YIELD
The rice yield in LMRD is simulated by DSSAT
model in the timeline of 2020, 2050 and 2100.
Details of the yield reduction for the 6
sub-regions are shown in the table below
13
Decrease of rice yield (in kg/ha and ) in the
sub-regions according to B2 scenarios
14
RESULTS
RICE YIELD
  • To 2020 rice yield reduces not much with average
    rate 2 - 3 and the highest of 6.6. Especially,
    in Ca Mau Peninsula sub-region, yield tends to
    increase 5 - 6.
  • To 2050 rice yield decreases on average 6 - 9
    and the highest 15 compared to the base time.
  • To 2100 the most decrease year for rice yield
    with the average 16 - 21 and the highest 30
    compared to the base time.

15
RESULTS
INUNDATION AREA
  • For LMRD, the average sea level rises highly,
    especially in peak tidal water level, will cause
    flooding of lowland areas and deliver saltwater
    from sea to inland. Saltwater boundaries will
    enter further to inland. A significant portion
    of agricultural land in the coastal lowlands
    would be flooded by sea level rise.

16
Inundated area of LMRD in 2050 and 2100
RESULTS
INUNDATION AREA
Rice area is quite large with the proportion up
to 60 areas of LMRD. It is supposed that rice
area is permanently flooded. If, sea levels is 12
cm, 30cm, 75cm, the flooded rice area is 1.4, 6
and 38, respectively.
17
RESULTS
SALTWATER INTRUSION
  • Saline rice area is simulated by climate change
    impacts in the timeline as follows 38 by 2020,
    52.5 by 2050 and 83.2 by 2100.

18
Salinity area of LMRD in 2020, 2050
RESULTS
INUNDATION AREA
  • By 2020, rice area remains only 62 - 64 compared
    to now.
  • By 2050, rice area remains only 48 - 53 compared
    to now.
  • By 2100, rice area remains only 17 - 20 compared
    to now.

19
RESULTS
DROUGHT INDEX
  • The drought also leads to decline of rice yields
    due to water shortage during rice growth period.
  • In Ca Mau Peninsula, possibility of severe
    drought is 6.16.
  • Between the Tien - Hau River, Dong Thap Muoi,
    East Coast have possibility of severe drought of
    6.46.
  • Regions such as the Long Xuyen Quadrangle, West
    of Hau River with possibility of severe drought
    is 4.49

20
RESULTS
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS
  • In 2020, in LMRD, there are 12 kinds of area
    endured from 1 to 3 effects of inundation,
    salinity and drought of 3 different frequencies.
  • The area endured the effect of 6.46- frequency
    drought is the largest with 12808 km2 (near 34
    of LMRD area).
  • The second large area endured the effects of
    both the 6.16-frequency drought and salinity
    intrusion with 9660 km2 (over 25 of LMRD area).
    The areas endured 3 effects of inundation,
    salinity and drought of 3 different frequencies
    4.49, 6.16 and 6.46 respectively are 29 km2,
    180 km2 and 229 km2 (total occupied 1.15 of LMRD
    area).

21
Rice areas and the impact of flooding. salinity.
drought in 2020 scenarios
RESULTS
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS
22
RESULTS
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS
  • In 2050, the area endured only the effect of
    6.46- frequency drought still is the largest
    with 10044 km2 (near 27 of LMRD area).
  • The second large area endured the effects of
    both the 6.16-frequency drought and salinity
    intrusion with 9507 km2 (25 of LMRD area).
  • The areas endured 3 effects of inundation,
    salinity and drought of 3 different frequencies
    4.49, 6.16 and 6.46 respectively are 426 km2,
    898 km2 and 579 km2 (total occupied 5.04 of LMRD
    area).

23
RESULTS
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS
  • In 2100, the area endured the effects of both
    6.46-frequency drought and salinity intrusion is
    the largest with 10068 km2 (near 27 of LMRD
    area).
  • The second large area endured 3 effects of
    inundation, salinity and 6.16-frequency drought
    is 5573 km2 (near 15 of LMRD area).
  • The areas endured 3 effects of inundation,
    salinity and drought of 3 different frequencies
    4.49, 6.16 and 6.46 respectively are 3644 km2,
    5573 km2 and 2848 km2 (total occupied 31.92 of
    LMRD area).

24
RESULTS
THE COMBINATION OF FACTORS
25
CONCLUSION
  • Results of the study show that the effects of
    climate change on rice yield from weather,
    salinity, sea level rise and drought factors are
    to reduce rice production and the risk of
    narrowing the area of rice cultivation in the
    LMRD.
  • Rice yield is decreased significantly by climate
    change impacts in different periods. Rice yield
    can decrease 6 by 2020, 15 by 2050 and even 30
    by 2100.
  • The area of agricultural land, especially rice
    cultivated land is decreasing by sea level rise,
    salinity intrusion besides the reasons of
    urbanization and industrialization.
  • In summary, results provided a scientific basis
    for agricultural development strategies in
    general and rice production in particular so that
    ensure national food security and give direction
    for adaptation measures in the context of climate
    change.

26
Thanks for your attention
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