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The 2012 Update of Our Future World

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Global Megatrends The 2012 Update of Our Future World Dr Stefan Hajkowicz | Principal Scientist Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy Basic Expectations 24% ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: The 2012 Update of Our Future World


1
Global Megatrends
  • The 2012 Update of Our Future World

Dr Stefan Hajkowicz Principal Scientist
Stefan Hajkowicz, Hannah Cook, Anna Littleboy
2
  • The Megatrends

3
  • 1. More From Less

It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty
and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and
shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet
Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very,
very small. - Neil Armstrong
4
  • Food

5
  • Water

1.2 billion people in regions with insufficient
water 1.6 billion people in water-scarce river
basins with inadequate capacity to
develop International Water Management Institute
6
  • Energy

7
  • Minerals

8
  • 2. Going, Going Gone?

9
  • Going, Going Gone?
  • The fate of biological diversity for the next 10
    million years will almost certainly be determined
    during the next 50100 years by the activities of
    a single species.
  • Paul Ehrlich and Robert Pringle, PNAS 2008.

10
  • Going, Going Gone?

Data Source Global Biodiversity Outlook 3,
Secretariat on the Convention on Biological
Diversity, 2010
11
  • Going, Going Gone?
  • Red List

Red List Extinction Risk Index 1 No concern 0
Extinct
Data Source Global Biodiversity Outlook 3,
Secretariat on the Convention on Biological
Diversity, 2010
12
  • Going, Going ... Gone? Staying Put ?

13
  • 3. The Silk Highway

14
  • The Silk Highway
  • Its Been So Good in Australia (comparatively)

GDP Growth Rates
15
  • The Silk Highway
  • A Shifting World Economy

Source Quah, 2011 Global Policy
16
  • The Silk Highway
  • Making Cities in 20 Years What Took Europe 400
    Years

Image source (c) The Chinese UPLA urban planning
network, http//www.upla.cn
Statistic derived from analysis of the United
Nations, World Urbanization Prospects, The 2007
Revision Population Database
17
  • 4. Forever Young

As you grow older, you will discover that you
have two hands, one for helping yourself, the
other for helping others. - Audrey Hepburn
18
  • Forever Young
  • The Ageing Population Australia

Today were some 14 over 65 yrs old It will be
25 by 2050
19
  • Forever Young
  • Retirement Savings Gap Tapered Retirement

20
  • Forever Young
  • Diabetes and Overweight Projections

21
  • Forever Young
  • Wanting to Stay Active and Engaged

Sydney, Australia
Brisbane, Australia
Melbourne, Australia
Number of Competitors
Edmonton, Canada
Toronto, Canada
Portland, Oregon, USA
Aalborg, Aarhus Herning Denmark
22
  • 5. Virtually Here

23
  • Virtually Here
  • The Growth of Online Retail

Online as a Percentage of Total Retail
Sales 2012 2015 5.1 10
Retail Sales Volume
Source Source Reserve Bank of Australia,
Australian Bureau of Statistics
National Australia Bank report a 29 increase in
online retail sales in 2011.
24
  • Virtually Here
  • Catch me if you can New models of retail

Tescos Virtual Grocery Walls
25
  • Virtually Here
  • The Work (Live?) Anywhere City

Currently 6 of Australian workers telecommute,
11 in the US and 10 in Europe (Access
Economics). The Australian Government aims to
increase teleworking to 12 of the workforce
(DCDBE).
In Queensland 58 of employees (1.1 million
people) have a flexible work arrangement of some
type. This includes 13.3 (253,000 people)
working from home.
26
  • Virtually Here
  • The Offshoring Trend

27
  • Virtually Here
  • The Offshoring Trend

In Australia they cost 10,000 to 20,000 per
month
28
  • 6. Great
  • Expectations

Now, I return to this young fellow. And the
communication I have got to make is, that he has
great expectations. - Charles Dickens
29
  • Great Expectations
  • Maslows Hierarchy

30
  • Great Expectations
  • Declining Material Consumption

31
  • Great Expectations
  • The Jury is out - Experiences make us happier

Published studies showing materialism is
detrimental to well being 1985 - Journal of
Consumer Research 1992 - Journal of Consumer
Research 1993 - Journal of Consumer
Satisfaction, Dissatisfaction, and Complaining
Behavior 1993 - Journal of Personality and
Social Psychology 2003 - Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology 2007 - Family and Consumer
Sciences Research Journal 2007 - Journal of
Social and Clinical Psychology 2009 - The
Journal of Positive Psychology
Published studies showing buying life-experiences
improves well being 2010 - Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology 2009 - The Journal of
Positive Psychology 2009 - Journal of Research in
Personality 2003 Journal of Personality and
Social Psychology
32
  • Great Expectations
  • Utility - A non-linear relationship

Not likely
?
Happiness (utility)
More likely
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Beers (schooners)
33
  • Great Expectations
  • Increasing Importance of the Whole Package

Fair Trade Logo Sales Revenue The Moral
Dimension
34
  • Basic Expectations

24 lt US1.25/day (47 in 1990) 33 of people in
urban slums 15.5 percent of the worlds
population (1 billion) hungry United Nations,
2012
35
Thank you
  • Dr Stefan Hajkowicz
  • Leader CSIRO Futures Principal Scientist
  • t 61 7 3833 5540
  • e stefan.hajkowicz_at_csiro.au
  • w www.csiro.au
  • CSIRO FUTURES
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