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Global Warming and Science

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Global Warming and Science So far the balanced story of basic science is not getting through to the public There is at least one alternate hypothesis – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Global Warming and Science


1
Global Warming and Science
  • So far the balanced story of basic science is not
    getting through to the public
  • There is at least one alternate hypothesis
  • and a new theory
  • Fran Manns, Artesian Geological Research, Toronto

2
What is Global Warming?
  • Throughout time the Earths climate has varied
  • Since the base of the Pleistocene (1.8 M ya)
    there have been at least 30 glacial -
    interglacial cycles of 40,000 years to 100,000
    years duration with interglacial periods warmer
    than now between them
  • Sea level has risen 125 metres in the past 20,000
    years. That 6 mm a year (arithmetic average).
  • ICPP recently cited 2-3 mm a year one might
    say its slowing down.
  • The worlds coastal tribes have flood myths
    because they migrated around the world and lived
    upon the continental shelves
  • Between glacial ages the climate varies due to
    external and internal influences some result in
    cooling. Others allow the Earth to warm
  • There are short-term cycles e.g. El Niño,
    among others for example - the 10 to 12 year
    long solar energy cycles, and cycles that relate
    to oscillation of Atlantic and Pacific ocean
    masses, and the Milankovich orbital cycle.

3
Pennekamp Park Key Largo SCOOP - Reefs keep
pace with 125 metre sea level rise
4
Athabasca Glacier has been receding since the
Little Ice Age
5
Moraine From the Little Ice Age
6
Solar System Perspective
7
What If?
  • If The atmosphere did not absorb incoming heat,
    we would roast all day and freeze-dry at night
    and end up like sun-dried tomatoes
  • Mercury - 427 to 172 ºC
  • Mars - temperate zone soil
  • 27 to 80 ºC
  • Moon - 107 to - 153 ºC

8
What is the Greenhouse Effect?
  • Certain gasses in the atmosphere are alleged to
    absorb heat energy and reduce the amount that
    escapes into space
  • This trapping of heat from our only source of
    warmth the Sun by the atmosphere is known as
    the Greenhouse Effect
  • This gives us a global average temperature of
    15C rather than -18C if we had no Greenhouse
    Effect
  • An hypothesis unsupported by experiment could
    be cloud cover alonethe jury is out

9
Important Facts
  • Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas
    - 60 - 98 of the greenhouse effect is due to
    water vapour in the atmosphere (jury still out)
  • CO2 and other minor gasses account for the
    remainder

10
Contribution to the Greenhouse Effect (including
water vapour) http//www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/gr
eenhouse_data.html
11
Is Global Warming Happening?
  • Lets examine some very wiggly curves
  • Death Valley California (not much urban growth
    here) -

12
Berkeley California
13
No global warming here
14
Blaine Washington
15
New York NY
16
Albany NY
17
Michael Crichton - State of Fear, December
2004, Harper Collins
  • New York city has a fever but why not Albany?

18
Harrisburg Pa Civil War gap
19
Chicago Illinois
20
Buffalo NY
21
Key West Florida
22
Global Warming
  • Typically the majority of weather stations yield
    corrupt time series data
  • Those weather stations are located where people
    are living. Thus, it is far from a random sample
    of the surface of the world, rather a measure of
    increasing human density
  • Death Valley, Key West,, and Blaine are far
    (remote) from urban centres and are likely more
    reliable Who knows about Berkeley? Albany vs.
    New York City?
  • Since 1979, temperatures have been measured from
    satellites. Not surprisingly, these measurements
    give a much smaller warming.

23
Realistically
  • The planet is not warming in the dramatic manner
    the alarmists claim
  • There are many other sites that demonstrate
    cooling
  • I accept slow climate change but not the drama
  • EARTHS CLIMATE IS ALWAYS CHANGING
  • I do not accept the popular cause CO2
  • Why are the graphs so wiggly?
  • Because climate is not weather

24
Niagara Falls NY 1911 The next Ice Age
predicted
25
Relax, the planet is fineNational Post - Earth
Day 07 The Wegman Report Ad Hoc Committee on
the Hockey Stick Global Climate Reconstruction,
This report was authored by Edward J. Wegman,
George Mason University, David W. Scott, Rice
University, and Yasmin H. Said, The Johns Hopkins
University
26
Thompson, Lonnie G. et al. (2006) Proc. Natl.
Acad. Sci. USA 103, 10536-10543Fig. 6. Climate
reconstructions over the last two centuries SIC
millennia.Medieval warm period missing
Little Ice Age ???
27
Kamél, 2003
  • In the past couple of years, new and better
    analysis of the Antarctic ice data, giving a
    better time resolution, have shown that first
    temperature rises, and then carbon dioxide levels
    increase. It is the temperature increase which
    causes the increase in CO2 and not the other way
    around.
  • The extra CO2 could at most add a little extra
    warming to what is going on, but not even that is
    certain.

28
CO2 increase in the atmosphere is a trailing
phenomenon
  • Throughout the greatest temperature transitions
    experienced by the planet over the past 420,000
    years, atmospheric CO2 concentration has been
    proven to have been a follower, and not a leader,
    of climate change, rising from one to five
    thousand years after major increases in air
    temperature, and falling in similar manner
    throughout the course of the past four
    glacial/interglacial cycles (Mudelsee, M., 2001).

29
CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid
  • Solubility of solids increases directly with
    temperature of the solvent
  • sugar dissolves more rapidly in hot water than
    cold
  • Carbon dioxide dissolves quickly in cold water
    and evolves rapidly out of warm water
  • Dont shake your Doctor Pepper!

30
Observations
  • Warming precedes CO2 increase - likely due to
    warming of the oceans
  • CO2 has inverse solubility in liquid (warm your
    Guinness to see this effect)
  • CO2 has a geometrically wasting greenhouse gas
    effect more CO2 less effectiveness

31
And
  • You might say, and alarmists say every day,
    that the new anthropogenic CO2 from the
    industrial revolution is tipping the climate over
    into uncontrollable heating

32
Water vapour is the most important greenhouse gas
  • The most variable component of the atmosphere is
    water in its various phases such as vapour, cloud
    droplets, and ice crystals. Water vapour is the
    strongest greenhouse gas. For these reasons and
    because the transition between the various phases
    absorb and release so much energy, water vapour
    is central to the climate and its variability and
    change.
  • Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis
    Section 1.1.2 The Climate System

33
Absorption wavelength CO2 vs. H2O
Three CO2 absorption wavelengths at 1.4, 1.9, and
2.4 µm cannot compete with nine H2O bands
34
Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007 180 Years of Atmospheric
CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and
Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March.
35
Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007 180 Years of Atmospheric
CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and
Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March.
36
Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007 180 Years of Atmospheric
CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and
Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March.
37
Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007 180 Years of Atmospheric
CO2 Measurements by Chemical Means, Energy and
Environment, Vol. 8 No.2 March.
38
CO2 data used by the UN ICPP has fatal flaws
  • Beck shows several instances when CO2 was higher
    than today at Mauna Loa
  • Most recently (1942) CO2 exceeded 400 ppm
  • Cynics would say the Beck (2007)data are
    regionalized variables and realists might say
    Why use Mauna Loa, an active volcano that emits
    CO2?

39
UN ICPP 1740 2000
40
ICPP CO2 data is F(Flawed)UBAR
41
Downward forcing - all greenhouse gasses - vs.
increasing CO2 content - Willis Eschenbach
42
CO2 Feedback effect
  • Has a geometrically wasting property (Kamél,
    2003)
  • Analogous to Venetian blinds and light
  • Adding a second and third set of Venetian blinds
    to the same window becomes decreasingly effective
    in blocking outgoing light
  • More CO2 less additional greenhouse effect
  • Increase in CO2 has less effect because
  • Carbon dioxide in the Earth's atmosphere has
    exactly one important spectral line in the
    infrared part of the spectrum. This line is
    clearly saturated.
  • If you increase the number of CO2 molecules in
    the atmosphere, not much will happen

43
Well then what is the likely cause ?
44
Look up! - recognise the variation is in the
fourth significant digit
45
CO2 vs. Friis-Christensen and Lassen (Science,
1991) "Dr. Tim Patterson after Friis-Christensen
Lassen, 1991"
46
CO2 and Temperature Anomaly
  • Temperature rise preceded CO2 from 1890 to 1950
  • CO2 does not correlate with temperature anomaly
    from 1940 to 1970
  • Temperature rise does correlate with solar
    activity
  • CO2 rise cannot be a cause of warming

47
Friis-Christensen and Lassen (1991) Science
Magazine
  • 95 correlation between sunspot peak frequency
    and the temperature anomaly
  • Sunspot curve, moreover, leads the temperature
    curve
  • But, correlation is not causation
  • What is the cause?

48
The subtle part
  • It is not only the number of sunspots
  • It is not only the heat flux
  • It is not only the peak frequency

49
Danish National Space Centre
  • It is already well-established that when cosmic
    rays, which are high-speed atomic particles
    originating in exploded stars far away in the
    Milky Way, penetrate the Earths atmosphere, they
    produce substantial amounts of ions and release
    free electrons.
  • results from the Danish experiment show that the
    released electrons play a significant role in
    promoting the formation of building blocks for
    cloud condensation nuclei, on which water vapor
    condenses to make clouds. Hence, a causal
    mechanism by which cosmic rays can facilitate the
    production of clouds in Earths atmosphere has
    been experimentally identified for the first
    time.
  • http//www.spacecenter.dk/publications/press-relea
    ses/getting-closer-to-the-cosmic-connection-to-cli
    mate

50
Danish Space Centre Theory
  • Active sun ? enhanced magnetic and thermal flux
    solar wind ? geomagnetic shield response ? less
    low-level clouds ? less albedo (less heat
    reflected)  ? warmer climate
  • Less active sun ? reduced magnetic and thermal
    flux reduced solar wind ? geomagnetic shield
    drops ? galactic cosmic ray flux ? more low-level
    clouds ? More snow ? more albedo (more heat
    reflected) ? colder climate
  • That's how the bulk of climate change works
  • Coupled with sunspot peak frequency there are
    cycles of global warming and cooling like waves
    in the ocean
  • When the waves are closely spaced, the planet
    warms

51
Potentially large sources of cosmic radiation -
our star is one pixel Betelgeuse is 427 light
years away Antares 600 light years away.
52
We are at the end of the 23rd Cycle since
sunspots were first recorded
53
Why, realistically, conspiracy theories aside
  • Is CO2 the target?
  • CO2 hypothesis has precedence (1897)?
  • Media propagation? Bottom Line
  • Repetition of stale science
  • Bandwagon science? - DDT and Malaria!
  • Consensus science? - Copernicus and Galileo!
  • Publish or perish? - Mann and the Hockey Stick
  • Research grants? Tied to outcome
  • All of the above?

54
Original Sin
  • Gracious no! Humans can only claim
    responsibility, if that's the word, for about
    3.4 of carbon dioxide emitted to the atmosphere
    annually, the rest of it is all natural (IPCC,
    Woods Hole)
  • Anthropogenic is 0.11 of the global CO2 cycle
  • Better term is Anthropocentric implying
    narcissism of the environmental lobby groups
  • Was that not the Galileo-Copernican dilemma?
  • www.CO2Science.org

55
My hypothesis is volcanic
  • Eruption of Krakatau, 1883
  • There has not been much warming of the Gulf of
    Mexico in modern time

56
Skepticism or Objectivity
57
Moving to higher ground.. Here is An
Inconvenient Truth
  • "A scientific hypothesis that survives
    experimental testing becomes a scientific theory"

58
Take this test!
  • http//www.geocraft.com/WVFossils/GlobWarmTest/sta
    rt.html

59
                 Albert Einstein said" If you
succeed in using the nuclear-physical findings
for peaceful purposes,it will open the way to a
new paradise".
Francis T. Manns, Ph.D., P.Geo.
(Ontario) artesian1_at_sympatico.ca 323 Blantyre
Avenue Toronto Ontario M1N 2S6 Canada 416-698-6291
60
Key References
  • Friis-Christensen, E. and K. Lassen, 1991 Length
    of the Solar Cycle - an indicator of solar
    activity closely associated with climate,
    Science, New Series, Vol. 254, No. 5032, Nov. 1,
    1991, pp.698-700.
  • Svensmark, Henrik, Jens Olaf P. Pedersen, Nigel
    D. Marsh, Martin B. Enghoff, and Ulrik I.
    Uggerhoj, 2006 Experimental evidence for the
    role of ions in particle nucleation under
    atmospheric conditions, Proceedings of the Royal
    Society (A), Proc. R Soc. A, doi10.1098/rspa.2006
    1773. Published online.

61
CO2 Analyses and Methodology
  • Beck, Ernst-Georg, 2007 180 Years of Atmospheric
    CO2 Gas Analyses by Chemical Methods, Energy and
    Environment, Vol. 18, No. 2 2007.
  • Jaworoski, Zbigniew, 2007 CO2 the Greatest
    Scientific Scandal of Our Time, EIR Science, 16
    March 2007.

62
References
  • Temperature
  • Lars Kamél, 2003 Temperature measurements Is
    climate research pseudo science?
  • Swedish original text from June, English
    translation from Nov, 2003, a few updates made
    since.
  • http//www.astro.uu.se/l/noworry.htm
  • United States Historical Climatology Network
    dataset
  • http//www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/ushc
    n/ushcn.html

63
References
  • CO2 as plant food
  • Eamus, D. 1996 Responses of field grown trees to
    CO2 enrichment. Commonwealth Forestry Review 75
    39-47.
  • Eklundh, L. and Olsson, L. 2003 Vegetation index
    trends for the African Sahel 1982-1999.
    Geophysical Research Letters 30
    10.1029/2002GL016772.
  • Saxe, H., Ellsworth, D.S. and Heath, J. 1998
    Tree and forest functioning in an enriched CO2
    atmosphere. New Phytologist 139 395-436.

64
References
CO2 Saturation Elachi, Charles, 1987
Introduction to the Physics and Techniques of
Remote Sensing (John Wiley Sons) Kamél,
Lars, 2003 Why we don't have to worry about CO2,
Department of Astronomy and Space Physics,
Uppsala, Sweden http//www.astro.uu.se/l/noworr
y.htm CO2 Trailing effect Mudelsee, M., 2001
The phase relations among atmospheric CO2
content, temperature and global ice volume over
the past 420 ka. Quaternary Science Reviews 20
583-589.
65
Other Reading
  • deFreitas, C.R., 2002 Are observed changes in
    the concentration of carbon dioxide in the
    atmosphere really dangerous?, Bulletin of
    Canadian Petroleum Geology, Vol. 50, No. 2 (June
    2002), pp. 297-327, School of Geology and
    Environmental Science, Auckland, New Zealand.
  • McIntyre, Steven and McKitrick, Ross, 2005
    Hockey Sticks, principal components, and spurious
    significance, Geophysical Research Letters, 32,
    L03710, doi10.1029/2004GL021750
  • Wegman, Edward J., David W. Scott and Yasmin H.
    Said, 2006 Ad hoc committee report on the
    Hockey stick global climate reconstruction, To
    The Chairman of the Committee on Energy and
    Commerce and the Chairman of the Subcommittee on
    Oversight and Investigations, US House of
    Representatives.
  • The IPCC Report Climate Change 2001 Third
    Assessment Report consists of four sub-reports
    1) Climate Change 2001 The Scientific Basis, 2)
    Climate Change 2001 Impacts , Adaptation and
    Vulnerabilities, 3) Climate Change
    2001Mitigation, and 4) Climate Change 2001
    Synthesis Report.

66
Acknowledgements
  • Jim Tilsley
  • Les Manns
  • Richard Bedell

67
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