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Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology

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Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology Overview – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and Technology


1
Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and
Technology Overview
2
Risk
  • RiskDamage X Probability
  • or more generally
  • RiskEvent X Probability
  • where events may be positive or negative
    occurrences.
  • or even more generally
  • Risks are uncertain events.

3
Management of uncertainty in organizations
  • Balance between minimizing uncertainty, which
    creates stability, and coping with uncertainty,
    which creates flexibility

Central planning High standardization High level
of automation Little operative freedom Feedforward
control
4
Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and
Technology Overview
5
Risk perception
  • Identify relevant events
  • Restricted cognitive capacity, selective
    attention
  • Impact of experience, expectations, needs
  • Assess probabilities
  • Handling conditional probabilities
  • Cognitive heuristics (e.g., availability,
    anchoring)
  • Control expectations (e.g., unrealistic optimism)
  • Impact of assumed benefit
  • Certainty versus risk as benefit in itself

6
Current thinking about decision-making Dual-proce
ss models
  • Naturalistic decision making (Klein, 2008)
  • Recognition-primed decisions by matching given
    situation with known patterns (combinations of
    cues, expectancies, goals, actions) and
    simulating effects of possible actions
  • System 1 and System 2 (Evans, 2008)
  • System 1 intuition (implicit, automatic, low
    effort, holistic, fast, emotional)
  • System 2 reasoning (explicit, controlled, high
    effort, analytic, slow, cognitive)
  • But many questions remain, e.g.,
  • when to trust which process
  • when to switch between systems

7
Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and
Technology Overview
8
Types of risk communication
  • Internal development of shared understanding
    among risk professionals
  • external communicate risks to the general public
  • information about risks including the general
    notion of probability and uncertainty
  • training for appropriately handling risks
  • creating confidence in institutions responsible
    for risk assessment and management
  • involvement in risk-related decisions

9
Demands for good risk communication
  • Educating about risks including the general
    notion of probability and uncertainty
  • Building trust
  • timely, concise, unbiased message
  • competent, empathetic, honest communicators
  • institutional support and integrity
  • Involving stakeholders through adequate forms of
    participation
  • Promoting dialogue which acknowledges different
    interests, roles, and expertise
  • Monitoring effects of risk communication and
    adapt communicaton continuously

10
Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and
Technology Overview
11
Design challenges in automated systems
  • Avoiding mix of qualitative overload and
    quantitative underload
  • Avoiding leftover activities in automation gaps
  • Securing implicit knowledge
  • Providing fit between accountability and control

12
Design for (partial) non-controllability
  • Giving human operators information about the
    limits of control
  • Shifting accountability to system designers and
    operating organizations for handling limitations
    of operator control
  • Gaining control by giving up control ?

13
Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and
Technology Overview
14
Management of uncertainty (Grote, 2004, 2009)
Minimizing uncertainty Complex central planning systems Reducing operative degrees if freedom through procedures and automation Disturbances as to be avoided symptoms of inefficient system design Coping with uncertainty Planning as resource for situated action Maximizing operative degrees of freedon through complete tasks and lateral cooperation Disturbances as opportunity for development and use of compe-tencies and for system change
? Dependence / feedforward control ? Autonomy / feedback control
????Balance through loose coupling ? Motivation through task orientation Higher order autonomy Flexible changes between organizational modes Culture as basis for coordination/integration ????Balance through loose coupling ? Motivation through task orientation Higher order autonomy Flexible changes between organizational modes Culture as basis for coordination/integration
  • Coordination via
  • - technical systems
  • - standards/programs
  • personal instruction
  • Effective with few uncertainties
  • Coordination via
  • - plans
  • mutual agreement
  • culture
  • Effective with many uncertainties

15
Elements of good rules management
  • Determine desired balance between stability and
    flexibility
  • Systematic decisions about types of rules
  • Process and goal rules promote flexibility,
    action rules promote stability
  • Matching competence levels by rule followers and
    decision latitude in rules
  • Systematic procedures for developing rules
  • Participative rule-making
  • Systematic choices between rules and other
    coordination mechanisms such as leadership

16
Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and
Technology Overview
17
Socio-technical model of safety culture (Grote
Künzler, 2000)
Aim Linking safety culture to overall
organizational culture as well as to
characteristics of the material organization
beyond directly safety-related activities
18
Example of safety management system The Dupont
model
19
A core element of culture Defining the role of
the human
Safety factor?
Risk factor?
Safety measures mirror and confirm assumptions
about the role humans should play
20
Psychological Aspects of Risk Management and
Technology Overview
21
Components of risk management
  • Risk identification
  • Risk evaluation
  • Risk management
  • reduction
  • retention
  • avoidance
  • transfer
  • Risk communication

22
Commonalities and differences in the presented
approaches to risk management
Swiss Re Swisscom Skyguide
Risk identification
Risk evaluation
Risk manage-ment reduction retention avoidance transfer
Risk communi-cation
23
Course evaluation
  • Did you learn what you expected?
  • What supported learning / what hindered learning?
  • Were the topics the right ones?
  • Was teaching quality sufficient?
  • Suggestions for improvements?

24
Reminder
  • Prepare report on the topic you selected based on
    the respective lecture and the answers to your
    questions during the lecture, assigned reading
    materials and additional literature obtained by
    yourself.
  • Report due Jan. 25, 2010 submit via e-mail to
    Gudela Grote ggrote_at_ethz.ch
  • You are welcome to send an outline of the
    intended work for the report (ggrote_at_ethz.ch) to
    receive feedback on your general direction.
  • The reports will be compiled as a reader and
    distributed to all participants.
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