Using the Decision Dashboard (DD) to model the Rincon case

1
Using the Decision Dashboard (DD) to model the
Rincon case

• CEE100

2
Key to Slides

• Column 1 Questions
• Column 2 DD Concepts Introduced
• Column 3 DD Demonstration
• Column 4 Use of DD (Col. 1) what are we
  trying to figure out
• Column 5 Conclusions reached (findings)

3
Phase 1 - Michael Blumenthal

• We are going to model decisions made during the
  beginning of the Rincon project. Michael
  Blumenthal is considering whether h should take
  on the project, whether he has the necessary
  qualities. He also needs to make decision
  regarding forming a project team.
• Should Michael Blumenthal take on the project?

4
DD Elements

• The DDs AEC Decision Ontology defines 5 element
  types
• Stakeholders
• Topics
• Criteria
• Alternatives
• Dashboard

5
DD Stakeholders

• At this stage we have a single stakeholder
  Michael Blumenthal

6
Hierarchy and Selection

• The DD allows hierarchical representation of
  elements
• It also allows representing elements as selected
  elements and non-selected candidate elements

7
DD Decision Topics

• Michael B. needs to decide whether he is going to
  take on the project, or (in other words) if he is
  to be a co-owner of the project, as opposed to
  someone else.

8
Criteria

• What factors does Michael Blumenthal consider
  when deciding whether or not to proceed with the
  project?
• Does he believe that the project is viable?
• Does he expect the project contract to be
  favorable?
• Does he have the experience and reputation to
  land the contract?
• Does he have the financial power and image to
  land the contract?
• Can we group these criteria into hierarchy?

9
DD Criteria
10
Topics and Criteria

• How can we model how each topic relates to each
  criterion?
• For example, how would we model Michael
  Blumenthals experience and reputation?

11
DD Attributes

• The DD allows the decision modeler to define
  attributes and attribute values for elements
• We can specify single attribute values (for
  Topics)
• or ranges of acceptable values (for criteria)

12
Specifying Topic Attributes

• We can assign each decision topic with attribute
  values that give it a rating with respect to each
  criterion.

13
Acceptable Criteria Values

• What would be the acceptable rating for a
  particular criterion?
• For example, if Michael Blumenthals experience
  and reputation rating was 4 (on a scale of 1 to
  10), would that be acceptable?

14
Specifying Topic Attributes
15
Importance of Criteria

• Which criteria are most important?
• How can we assign weights to each criterion to
  reflect this?

16
Criteria Weights

• The DD defines a weight for each criterion, to
  specify its importance
• The DD also allows the decision modeler to
  specify weights for Topics and Stakeholders, and
  also for each stakeholder to specify a preference
  weight for each criteria. However for simplicity,
  we wont consider these.

17
Criterion Weights
18
Dashboard Element

• The DDs Dashboard Element allows decision
  modelers to combine Topics, Criteria and
  Stakeholders into on unified model

19
Combining all decision elements
20
Evaluation Table

• All elements under a single Dashboard element are
  summarized in the Evaluation Table

21
Evaluation Table
22
What might the DD tell us?

• Is the project viable?
• Can Michael Blumenthal alone go ahead with the
  project?
• What are his shortcomings?
• Would some else be potentially better than him to
  take on the project?
• What qualities should he look for in potential
  project partners?

23
What does the DD tell us?

• Michael Blumenthals Pros
• Belief in project
• Considers contract terms favorable
• Michael Blumenthals Cons
• Lacks reputation
• Lacks financial image
• He needs to find project partners who will fill
  the reputation and financial image void

24
Phase 2 Enter Chin and Hensolt

• Should Michael Blumenthal select Chin and Hensolt
  as Structural Engineers, or select some other
  party?
• Also, should Michael Blumenthal select Chin and
  Hensolt as a co-owner, or consider someone else?

25
More DD Topics
26
Choosing Chin

• What factors does Chin consider when deciding
  whether or not to join the project?
• What are the advantages/disadvantages of
  choosing Chin-Henslot?

27
More Criteria
28
Rating Chin and Hensolt

• How would you rate Chin and Hensolt with respect
  to the criteria?
• How would you rate a competing structural
  engineer on these same criteria?

29
Chins Attributes
30
DD Charts

• The DD supports the automatic generation of a
  wide range of charts

31
Chart of Chins Attributes
32
Reasons behind choosing specific Criteria

• Why were the chosen criteria so chosen?
• Maximize chances of landing the project
• Help form a successful team
• Satisfy personal goals of team members

33
Alternative Elements

• An Alternative Element remembers a certain
  selection of Elements
• Different Alternatives remember different
  selections of elements

34
Alternatives groups of Criteria
35
What might the DD tell us?

• Are Chin and Hensolts criteria for joining the
  project satisfied?
• To what extent does Chin and Hensolts make up
  for Michael Blumenthals shortcomings?
• How does Chin compare with other potential
  Structural engineers and Co-owners
• What qualities should Michael Blumenthal and
  Chin look for in potential project partners?

36
What does the DD tell us?

• Chin is satisfied with the contract terms and
  believes that the project will be viable
• Chin compares better to other potential
  structural engineers on all the criteria
• Chin also makes up for some of Blumenthals lack
  of reputation, but does not really add any
  financial power to the team. Hence, Blumenthal
  need to find a financially powerful partner

37
Phase 3 Enter Tutor-Saliba

• Should Michael Blumenthal and Chin (and Hensolt)
  select Tutor-Saliba as Contractors, or select
  some other party?
• Also, they select Tutor-Saliba as a co-owner, or
  consider someone else?

38
More DD Stakeholders
39
More DD Topics
40
Choosing Tutor-Saliba

• What factors does Tutor-Saliba consider when
  deciding whether or not to join the project?
• What are the advantages/disadvantages of
  choosing  Tutor-Saliba?

41
Rating Tutor-Saliba

• How would you rate Tutor-Saliba with respect to
  the criteria?

42
All Ratings so far
43
What might the DD tell us?

• Are Tutor-Salibas criteria for joining the
  project satisfied?
• What does Tutor-Saliba bring to the project team?
  
• How does Tutor-Saliba compare with other
  potential Contractors and Co-owners
• Are further project partners needed? What
  qualities should they have?

44
What does the DD tell us?

• Tutor-Saliba is satisfied with the contract terms
  and believes that the project will be viable
• Tutor-Saliba compares better to other potential
  structural engineers on all the criteria, but
  financial image
• The team still lack financial power. So it
  probably needs a partner who is strong
  financially and has a good reputation in that
  respect

45
Phase 4 Enter Peter Bolles and Perini

• Who should Michael Blumenthal, Chin (and Hensolt)
  and Tutor-Saliba as the architect? Peter Bolles
  or someone else?
• Also should they consider selecting a further
  Co-owner? Why?
• Would Perini be suitable?

46
More DD Stakeholders
47
More DD Topics
48
Choosing Peter Bolles and Perini

• What are the advantages/disadvantages of
  choosing  Peter Bolles?
• How can we rate Peter Bolles to reflect this?
• What are the advantages/disadvantages of
  choosing  Perini?
• How can we rate Perini?

49
Topic Alternatives
50
Final Evaluation Table
51
What-if scenarios

• The initial project team consisted of Michael
  Blumenthal, Chin-Henslot, Tutor-Saliba and Peter
  Bolles.
• What are the implications of replacing one team
  member with some other party?
• For example, replacing Chin-Henslot with some
  other Structural Engineer?

52
What does the DD tell us?

• The Chin and Tutor alternative seems to be the
  best choice for structural engineer and
  contractor. The team probably should consider a
  replacement

53
More questions the DD might answer

• Is Peter Bolles the best choice for an architect?
• Should the team consider someone else?
• What will Perinis role be in the future?

54
What does the DD tell us?

• Peter Bolles does not seem to be the best choice.
  He compares poorly to other options on all but
  one of the criteria
• Perini is the most dominant partner in terms of
  Financial power and reputation, and hence is
  likely to take control of the project team