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Aging and migration: a new understanding?

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Aging and migration: a new understanding? Prepared by Jean-Pierre Lachance Economist, HRDCC Quebec – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Aging and migration: a new understanding?


1
Aging and migration a new understanding?
  • Prepared by Jean-Pierre Lachance
  • Economist, HRDCC
  • Quebec

2
Population of Quebec, 1971 to 2001
Source Censuses. Statistics Canada
3
Population of Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean, 1971 to 2001
Source Censuses. Statististics Canada
4
Age groups, Saguenay-Lac-St-Jean, 1981 to 2001
age 0-14 age 15-24 age 25-44
age 45 and over
Source Censuses. Statistics Canada
5
Regional population, present to 2021
Source Institut de la Statistique du Québec
(ISQ) forecasts
6
Declining birth rates and migration
  • Young people have always gone away, but natural
    growth (birth rate) compensated for losses.
  • Because the replacement needs will continue to
    grow, we will increasingly have to count on
    significant migratory movement.
  • Average migration in the last 5 years shows that
    the equivalent of 32 people a week (half of whom
    were between 18 and 24 years old) left the
    region.
  • In our last observation year alone (1999-2000),
    we counted 2,749 net departures, the equivalent
    of 49 a week.

7
Question
  • Will the aging of the labour force sooner or
    later create a succession problem in firms that
    are not attracting young workers and are losing
    the experience of older workers?

8
Partners study
  • In 2000 and 2002, 3 studies were done involving
    firms with 10 or more employees.
  • Objective To obtain a relatively precise
    estimate of departures, by occupation for
    specialized jobs, that will result from
    retirements anticipated on the short-term (3
    years), medium-term (5 years) and long-term (7
    years) horizons within a particular geographic
    region.

9
GOALS
  • To obtain useful information about the potential
    number of retirements, in order to prepare for
    appropriate succession in the community.
  • To share the results of the study with firms to
    make them aware of succession needs, and with
    educational institutions within the region so
    that the training they offer will be a better fit
    with the needs arising from future retirements.

10
Regional results
Sector Number of specialized jobs 3-year forecast 5-year forecast 7-year forecast
Saguenay (2002) 32,391 2,716 8.4 4,448 13.7 6,528 20.2
Lac-Saint-Jean (2001) 13,934 594 4.3 878 6.3 1,243 8.9
TOTAL 46,325 3,310 7.1 5,326 11.5 7,771 16.8
Source Study of labour force erosion, 2001 and
2002.
11
Retirements anticipated, by occupation (higher
volume in 7 years)
Title Number of specialized jobs Prev. 3 yrs. Prev. 5 yrs. Prev. 7 yrs.
Trades workers (electricians, plumbers, machinists, etc.) 7907 810 10.2 1207 15.3 1607 20.3
Professional workers (professors, lawyers, psychologists, etc.) 2920 205 7.0 443 15.2 794 27.2
Processing, manufacturing and assembling workers (sawmill and pulp and paper mill operators, etc.) 1665 189 11.4 333 20.0 512 30.8
Primary processing workers (wood, pulp and paper processing occupations, etc.) 932 220 23.6 348 37.3 493 52.9
12
Activities - The public
  • LMI team in 2003-2004, presented the economic
    outlook and results of the erosion study to
  • 55 groups comprising 1,616 students in regional
    educational institutions
  • 17 meetings with other social and economic
    organizations, attended by 278 people.
  • Participated with the Junior Chamber of Commerce
    and other partners in the Youth Success
    campaign.

13
  • Participated with other partners, including the
    Conseil régional de prévention de labandon
    scolaire regional drop-out prevention council
    and the MigrAction movement, in numerous
    conferences about the future for young people in
    the region.

14
Activities - Business
  • Partners (Chambers of Commerce)
  • Advisory committee created
  • Results of the study presented at a
    socio-economic summit
  • 4 discussion forums held with firms that
    participated in the study, concerning action to
    be taken today to guarantee tomorrows succession

15
Conclusion
  • Are we going to have a labour force that has
    sufficient numbers and is of sufficient quality
    to compensate for all retirements?
  • Will firms have the time to transfer skills to
    younger workers?
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