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Update on Bicyclist

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Update on Bicyclist & Pedestrian Data Collection and Modeling Efforts Transportation Research Board January 2010 Charlie Denney, Associate Michael Jones, Principal * – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Update on Bicyclist


1
Update on Bicyclist Pedestrian Data Collection
and Modeling Efforts
  • Transportation Research Board
  • January 2010
  • Charlie Denney, Associate
  • Michael Jones, Principal

2
Four concurrent efforts
  • 1 Seamless Travel 2.5 year study of San Diego
    County
  • For Caltrans with UC Berkeley Traffic Safety
    Center

3
Four concurrent efforts
  • 2 National Bicycle Pedestrian Documentation
    Project
  • Free, unfunded service
  • With ITE, Texas Transportation Institute, and
    others since 2002

4
Four concurrent efforts
  • 3 Non-motorized Transportation Pilot Project
  • With Volpe National Transportation Systems Center
    since 2006
  • 4 Trip generation study with ITE initiated in
    2009

5
Collected and Analyzed to Date
  • NBPD count/survey data from 320 agencies
    nationwide
  • NHTS add-on for San Diego County (2010)
  • Count/survey data at over 150 locations for 4
    NTPP communities mail travel diary surveys
  • 365-day/yr 24 hr counts for 2 years at 5
    locations
  • Manual counts/intercept surveys at 80 locations
    over 2 years

6
Result
  • Largest collection of usable count and intercept
    survey data in the U.S.
  • Count data validation model accuracy

7
Key Seamless Findings
  • 76 of walk and 29 of bicycle trips are for
    transportation (v. recreation)
  • Integral parts of transportation system
  • Deserve more funding

8
Key Seamless Findings
  • Multi use pathways carry the most transportation
    trips
  • Should be funded as transportation projects

9
Key Seamless Findings
  • Multi use pathway free flow capacity is 120
    persons per hour per foot of width
  • Pathway design should be based on projected
    volumes

10
Key Seamless Findings
  • Multi use pathway design day is July 4th,
    11am-1pm
  • Conduct counts on this date

11
Key Seamless Findings
  • Given seasonal regional variations, annual
    volumes should be standard unit of measurement
  • Versus ADT, peak hour, etc.

12
Key Seamless Findings
  • Low volumes high variability
  • High volumes low variability
  • Conduct multiple counts at low volume locations
    for model validation

13
Key Seamless Findings
  • Monthly volumes highly related to regional
    variations
  • Automatic counters needed in each region of the
    country to calibrate models

14
Monthly Variation East/Midwest
15
Monthly Variation San Diego
16
How can we model behavior?
  • Four types of models needed
  • Each with different data needs and uses

17
Model 1
  • Aggregate Model
  • Measures overall trip making in an area
  • Used in Non-motorized Transportation Pilot
    Project
  • Cross checked with NHTS U of Minnesota Surveys

18
NBPD Aggregate Model
Work Commute Employed adults riding
bicycles/walking (US Census) School
Commute School children riding bicycles/walking
(US Census and available sources) College
Commute College students riding bicycles/walking
(UC Census) Utilitarian Trips Non-work or school
trips by bicycle/walking (surveys,
other) Recreational/Discretionary Recreational/dis
cretionary trips by bicycle/walking (surveys,
studies) Total daily estimated bicycle and
walking trips Average trip length, trip
purpose Replaced vehicle miles, health,
transportation, other benefits
19
Model 2
  • Trip Generation
  • Measures trip making by land use
  • Will be used as part of impact analysis,
    localized models
  • Data being collected by ITE

20
Model 3
  • Gravity Model
  • Measures volumes using 4-step process
  • Usable at bottlenecks and where there is a
    regular street grid, developed bike network, and
    level terrain

21
Can we use existing models?
  • Existing 4-step (gravity) travel models will not
    work for bicyclists and pedestrians for most
    areas

22
4-Step Models
  • Most trips within a TAZ
  • Most ped trips linked
  • Most factors affecting trip making cant be
    modeled
  • Topography
  • Abilities, interests, aesthetics
  • Concerns about security traffic
  • Quality of facilities network

23
How can we model behavior?
  • GIS-based (Seamless) Model
  • Estimates bicyclist and pedestrian volumes
    anywhere in a community
  • Can be used to develop collision rates,
    prioritize improvements, plan and design
    facilities and communities

24
Seamless Model (Bike Module)
25
GIS-based Seamless Model
  • 30 variables correlated with counts
  • Highest Employment density and population
    density
  • Misleading R2 factors. Over 50 of locations off
    by more than 100
  • Refinement factors resulted in R2 of .94, with
    mean residuals of -21

26
Summary
More information or to participate Alta
Planning Design www.altaplanning.com mgjones_at_alt
aplanning.com Michael Jones (415) 482-8660
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