Neo-conservatism and the domestic sources of American foreign policy: the role of ideas in Operation Iraqi Freedom

1
Neo-conservatism and the domestic sources of
American foreign policy the role of ideas in
Operation Iraqi Freedom
2

• Neo-conservative ideas as domestic source of
  American foreign policy- its influence on
  preventive war against Iraq in March 2003
• Bush Doctrine
• 9/11 attacks and development of neo-conservative
  ideas

3

• Results of war in Iraq
• Failure to find WMD
• The US mistreatment of prisoners in Baghdads Abu
  Ghraib prison
• Civil war in Iraq

4

• US causalities in the war increase public anger
  against Bush administration/ democrats took
  control of Senate in 2006 and put pressure on
  Bush administration to withdraw from Iraq
• Demoralization of Bush administration
  domestically and internationally

5

• Factors behind decision making process leaded to
  Operation Iraqi Freedom
• 9/11 terrorist attacks
• Stopping S. Husseins WMD programme
• Spreading democracy the in Middle East
• Access to oil resources
• Replacing Saudi Arabia with Iraq as Americas
  security pillar in the region
• Israeli lobby

6

• The path to the war in Iraq
• 9/11
• Fears (perceptions of vulnerability)
• Ideas (neo-conservatism developed and put in
  action following the 9/11)
• Guesses (probability estimates-military operation
  will be easy and probability to find WMD)

7

• 9/11 (2001) and Pearl Harbor (1941)
• US choice to retaliate in Afghanistan and in
  Japan
• Predictable foreign policy decision making
• Domestic dynamics of foreign policy decision
  making in US president, his advisors, the
  relevant agencies, Congress, lobby groups, NGOs,
  public opinion, interest groups.

8

• For Ex Containment as policy result of internal
  forces operating within the US
• Ideas of neo-conservatism as major source of
  internal force operating in US
• Neo-conservatism in the first generation on
  social and economic issues criticized Democratic
  Partys approach to the welfare state (1960s)
  disillusioned liberal intellectuals (neocons
  accept welfare but they are against social
  engineering and support for undesirable social
  behavior like single motherhood)

9

• On foreign policy neocons as anti-communists
  emphasized on superiority of democracy and
  maintenance of strong military
• Neocons- Hawks strong military budget to restore
  prestige and power of US military power (1970s
  because they believed that Soviet Union catching
  up)

10

• The second generation neo-conservatives
  includes intellectuals and policy makers such as
  Ronald Regan, Francis Fukuyama, Daniel Pipes,
  Paul Wolfowitz, Elliot Abrams.
• Some of them were part of decision making team,
  for instance Abrams as a assistant Secretary of
  State for Inter-American Affairs, in the Regan
  administration's policy of providing funds,
  against prohibitions of Congress, to the Contra
  rebels seeking to overthrow the Sandinista
  government of Nicaragua (secret arm-trade
  agreement with Iran)

11

• Conservative realism-Henry Kissinger refuses
  moral values/purposes and doing what was
  necessary to maintain US military superiority
• Hobbesian ideas about international relations
  during the Cold War

12

• Neo-Reganian foreign policy (Kristol and Kagan
  1996)- Role of US as global hegemony
• Strong defense budget
• Educating Americans about their responsibility to
  understanding and support US armed forces
• Having clear moral purpose behind US foreign
  policy prompting democracy, free market and
  individual liberty

13

• During 1980s they emphasized on evil empire,
  regime change in Third World during Regan
  administration
• End of the Cold War without external other
  (enemy) to maintain US military strength!!!
• During the Clinton years neoconservatives as
  ideological political margins/they are carped
  from foreign policy sidelines

14

• Neoconservatives and the Slaying of the Iraqi
  Monster
• Regime change in Iraq a letter sent to Bill
  Clinton in 1998, co-signed by Project on the New
  American Century (PNAC) with Republican
  administrations (Elliot Abrams, John Bolton,
  Zalmay Khalized, Richard Perle, Francis Fukuyama,
  Robert Kagan, Willam Kristol, Donald Rumsfeld,
  and Paul Wolfowitz)
• Letter underlines that containment of Iraq was
  not working and only option is regime change

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• This letter considered preventive war against
  Iraq but ignored by Clinton but George W. Bush
  appointed most of the signatories of letter to
  important position of his administration
• So neoconservative foreign policy ideas moved
  political center in US and 9/11 al-Qaeda attacks
  increase support and favor of neoconservative
  doctrine

16
Some of PNAC's members or signatories were
appointed to key positions within the President's
administration

• Elliott Abrams Special Assistant to the
  President and Senior Director for Democracy,
  Human Rights, and International Operations
  (20012002),Assistant to the President and Deputy
  National Security Advisor for Global Democracy
  Strategy (20052009)
• John R. Bolton Under-Secretary of State for Arms
  Control and International Security Affairs
  (20012005)
• Paula Dobriansky Under-Secretary of State for
  Global Affairs (20012007)

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• Francis Fukuyama Member of The President's
  Council on Bioethics (20012005)
• Zalmay Khalilzad U.S. Ambassador to Afghanistan
  (11/2003 - 6/2005), U.S. Ambassador to Iraq
  (6/2005 - 3/2007) 
• Richard Perle Chairman of Defense Policy Board
  Advisory Committee
• Peter W. Rodman Assistant Secretary of Defense
  for International Security (20012007)
• Donald Rumsfeld Secretary of Defense (20012006)
• Paul Wolfowitz Deputy Secretary of
  Defense (20012005)
• Robert B. Zoellick Office of the United States
  Trade Representative, Deputy Secretary of State

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• Neoconservative ideas following the 9/11, Killing
  of innocents as legitimate policy in the pursuit
  of the Islamic interest by non-state actors
• World Trade Center and the Pentagon-target of
  attacks which were symbols of American economic
  and military power

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• How to respond to non-state actors directly?
• Lack of no real return address for al-Qaeda
• Targeting Afghanistan- was symbolic moral
  clarity, and the war in Afghanistan was a case of
  taking care of things too late
• Lesson of 9/11 take care of threats early
  (National Security Advisor Condoleezza Rice) so
  Iraq case was the lesson of 9/11

20

• First time Iraq threat US interest by annexing
  Kuwait
• US led UN operation Operation Desert Storm in
  1991 expelling Iraq out of Kuwait and limiting
  operation not to move towards Baghdad to remove
  S. Hussein (under the father G. Bush
  administration)

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• Iraq expelled UN weapon inspector in 1998 and
  increased suspicions to intend on developing WMD
• But still need more push to regime change in Iraq
  and 9/11 provided this extra push to set out the
  path of war to Iraq

22

• Operation Iraqi Freedom from Secretary of Defense
  Donald Rumsfeld point of view necessity to
  remove S. Hussein regardless the proof of WMD and
  link with al Qaeda.
• War in Iraq was more important than Afghanistan
  because it would deter others to pose same
  threats to US
• The war was based on deterrence and demonstration
  of US power

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• Many believe that Neocons (neoconservatives)
  responsible from war against Iraq
• Four tenets/principles of neoconservative foreign
  policy
• 1-Moral Clarity moral necessity to distinguish
  good and evil in the international arena,
  democratic leaders and liberal democracies are
  good/tyrannical regimes are bad (threat for
  democracies). For neoconservatives US morality
  and interest part of US foreign policy and
  according to its interest it has a right for
  regime change and promote democracy as it moral
  values
• Transformation of classical realist who disregard
  moral values for the interest of US (Henry
  Kissinger)

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• 2-Milirat Pre-eminence/superiority maintenance
  of US military predominance/US hegemony will be
  good for all. US should enjoy ideological and
  strategic predominance in the world
• 3- Leverage Its Military Power willingness to
  use of force to pursue its foreign policy goals,
  military force in pursuit of its goals (use of
  force to promote democracy if necessary by
  disregarding institutions and international
  law/distinction from classical realist is use of
  moral sense in conservatism to achieve US
  interest)

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• 4- Distrust of international law and
  institutions skepticism about international law
  and institutions to bring peace and justice in
  this world
• Neoconservatives appreciate legitimating
  functions of international law and institutions
  but dismiss them when they challenge US policy
• Idea of using US power for moral good in the
  world give them justification to pursue its
  policies
• US as monster slayer/ Saddam Hussein missed
  opportunity of the 1990s in slaying monster

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• Application of neoconservative foreign policies
  in S. Husseins Iraq according to four tenets
• 1-Saddam is member of axis of evil (moral
  clarity)
• 2-Regime change in Iraq will remove major
  challenge and promote US power in the Middle East
  (military preeminence)
• 3-Containment of Iraqs WMD programme is not
  working only option is use of force (willingness
  to use of force)
• 4-UN resolution is unnecessary and coalition of
  willing is sufficient (lack of trust to int.
  inst.)

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• If neoconservative foreign policy ideas had not
  existed, would the Bush administration still have
  launched a preventive war against Iraq in the
  post 9/11 environment?
• Role of agenda setting war in Iraq and
  anti-Saddam policy in US
• Importance of 9/11 on US agenda to the top of its
  policy process
• S. Hussein was tyrant who emerged most fit for
  the neoconservative purpose (difficulty to apply
  neoconservative policies in North Korea and China
  because they already have WMD)
• Neo-conservatism is more than an ideological
  back drop but less than a decisive cause

28

• Remember other factors behind war in Iraq such
  as access to oil resources, replacing Saudi
  Arabia with Iraq as Americas security pillar in
  the region, Israeli lobby
• These factors have not featured predominantly in
  Bush administration decision making on Iraq
  because even without these reasons Bush
  administration have gone ahead with Operation
  Iraqi Freedom because US concerned and focused on
  safeguarding the nation security (risk posed by
  WMD)

29

• Neo-conservatism became important factor in the
  Bush administration's decision to launch a
  preventive war against Iraq (not decisive but
  influential) but without 9/11 neoconservative
  ideas would not have had influence they did
• Policy makers unwilling to ignore even a one
  percent chance of Saddams proliferating WMD
  technology to those who may threaten the security
  of US

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• One percent doctrine even with one percent
  chance of threat US should treat the threats as a
  certainty and act to eliminate it. (not a part of
  neoconservative tenets)
• It is a probability estimate made by an
  administration fear of smoking guns turning into
  mushroom clouds
• Being 99 sure that Iraq do not do something or
  use WMD is not acceptable by Bush administration
  so doctrine provides key element of preventive
  war
• One percent doctrine suggest that even when the
  chances of such threats are very low, the US
  cannot afford to wait it needs to act to remove
  the source of threat
• US would not tolerate a one percent chance of
  insecurity

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• Relevance of neo-conservatism today
• Obamas escalation of war in Afghanistan in 2009
  and creation of no-fly zone in Libya 2011
• Obamas action can be understand as use of
  leverage on US military strength in Afghanistan
  and use of force in Libya to protect human
  rights- seem consistent with neoconservative
  principle of moral rightness and use of military
  force pursue US goals.

32

• Result of neoconservative policies
• Problem of poor planning and implementation by
  group of officials
• Rejecting decent opinions of the rest of the
  world and seeing US as role of moral arbiter
• Pools results rise of negative perception of US
  by much of the rest of the world
• Neoconservatives ideas moral clarity, US
  hegemony and military reputation have been
  undermined by their project in Iraq

33

• So Obama and his advisors are guided by
  neoconservative principles?
• After negative perceptions of neo-conservatism it
  is doubtful that it can be resurrected as a
  guidance of US foreign policy in near future
• Other reason for unlikely of resurrection of
  neo-conservatism is financial crisis in 2008, yet
  to recover and in the absence of strong economy
  the cost so sustaining wars is unlikely.

34

• Bush administration estimated that war would cost
  200 billion but the wars in Iraq have cost 800
  and in Afghanistan 443 billion (until 2011)
• 59 of Americans see Iraq was as a mistake and
  72 feel that the cost exceeded the gains
• Obama had to deal with two unfinished war and a
  broken economy
• In 2010 Obama declared Operation Iraqi Freedom
  ended and started withdrawal process of troops
  from Iraq but remaining 50,000 troops to train
  Iraqi security forces/ resurrection of Taliban in
  Afghanistan in 2009 and limited response to
  Libya but this is not related with
  neo-conservatism but confrontation with
  detoriorating situations and choosing to fight in
  Afghanistan

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• Key difference between Iraq and Libyan cases in
  Libya US and NATO supported the UNSC (resolution
  1973) instead of acting in the line of
  neoconservative ideas (unreliability of
  international institutions and international law)
• US guidance of use of force in Libya is the
  lesson learned from Rwanda (failure of Clinton
  administration)