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European Science Foundation (ESF) Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin f

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European Science Foundation (ESF) Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin f r Sozialforschung (WZB) Berlin, 16-17 February 2011 Social sciences and Foresight – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: European Science Foundation (ESF) Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin f


1
European Science Foundation (ESF) Wissenschaftszen
trum Berlin für Sozialforschung (WZB) Berlin,
16-17 February 2011 Social sciences and
Foresight A European perspective
  • Domenico ROSSETTI
  • European Commission, DG Research Innovation
  • Domenico.Rossetti-di-Valdalbero_at_ec.europa.eu
  • Personally speaking

2
EU Forward Looking Activities
  • Foresight, Forecast, Horizon scanning, Technology
    Assessment, Impact Assessment, Prospective
  • Quantitative and qualitative approaches
  • A long tradition in the EU
  • European Commission Cellule de Prospective,
    Multiannual Financial Perspectives, long-term
    planning
  • EP Scientific Technology Options Assessment
    (STOA)
  • Council and Member States Joint Programming
    (JPI)
  • European Council Gonzalez Report  Europe 2030 

3
Objectives of EU FLA
  • To anticipate new societal challenges
  • To advise on the main changes that the World and
    Europe will have to face in the next decades
  • To inspire EU policies by imaginative thoughts
  • To evaluate the economic and social impacts of EU
    proposals (ex-ante Impact Assessment)
  • To scan the weak signals and the wild cards
    including the potential technological and social
    breakthroughs
  • To shape a more sustainable future

4

Methods Quantitative and qualitative
5
FLA and EU policy-making
  • Europe 2020 Strategy Smart, sustainable and
    inclusive growth
  • Innovation Union Flagship Initiative Commitment
    8 Science base for policy-making and European
    Forum on FLA
  • Green Paper From challenges to opportunities
    Towards a common strategic framework for EU
    research and innovation funding

6
Europe 2020 Strategy targets
  • 75 of the population aged 20-64 should be
    employed
  • 3 of the EU's GDP should be invested in RD
  • The "20/20/20" climate/energy targets should be
    met
  • The share of early school leavers should be under
    10 and at least 40 of the younger generation
    should have a tertiary degree
  • 20 million less people should be at risk of
    poverty

7
EU FLA in Social Sciences
  • European Foresight Platform (EFP)
  • The World and Europe in 2030 (AUGUR) and Global
    Europe 2030/2050
  • The future of the Mediterranean area (MEDPRO)
    and EuroMed-2030
  • The evaluation of EU policies (DEMETER)
  • Science, Technology and Innovation (FARHORIZON,
    INFU, SESTI, CIVISTI)
  • Wild cards and weak signals (IKNOW)
  • Post carbon society (PACT, GILDED, PASHMINA)
  • Security and defence (SANDERA)

8
Methods Prediction and hope
Level of detail Quantifiabiity Degree of
objectivity Probability
Market forecasts
HIGH
Economic forecasts
Perspectives
Scenarios
Futurology
Timeframe Scope of assumptions Systemic
perspectives
LOW
MONTHS
YEARS
DECADES
Source Fraunhofer - Envisioning future research
horizons
9
Modesty is a must
  • Financial and economic crises
  • Technological developments
  • Social habits
  • Political movements

10
The World in 2025 Trends
  • 61 of world population in Asia, EU 6,5
  • 35 of the European population will be old
  • More than 30 of GDP produced by Asia, less than
    20 in EU
  • Asia is the 1st world exporter (EU 32, Asia 35)
  • Asia on par with US Europe in the field of RD
  • Globalization of RD means that access to
    knowledge is key

Source EC, World in 2025
11
Largest countries by 2025 (100 million or over)
  • China (1453)
  • India (1431)
  • EU-27 (517)
  • USA (358)
  • Indonesia (263)
  • Pakistan (246)
  • Brazil (214)
  • Nigeria (210)
  • Bangladesh (195)
  • Russia (132)
  • Mexico (123)
  • Japan (120)
  • Ethiopia (119)
  • Philippines (117)
  • Egypt (105)
  • Not a single European country in this list

Source UN
12
Tensions Resources and risks (2025)
  • In 2025 resources are scarce and the absence of
    global regulation and distribution mechanisms
    involves risks
  • 1/3 of the population undernourished or badly
    nourished
  • Carbon-based energy remains dominant
  • 3 billion people will not have access to water
  • More and more competition on land
  • If EU not followed on climate change policy, a
    warming of less than two degrees is unlikely

13
Tensions The energy example
  • Future Total Primary Energy Supply
  • 1970 5000 Mtoe
  • 1990 8000 Mtoe
  • 2010 12000 Mtoe
  • 2030 17000 Mtoe
  • Whats next?
  • USA 8 toe/cap
  • 5 of population and 23 of consumption
  • Europe 4 toe/cap
  • 10 of population and 20 of consumption
  • China 1 toe/cap
  • 21 of population and 12 of consumption

14
EU energy imports

Source European Commission, DG TREN
15
World and EU GDP

Source European Commission, DG RTD (WETO)
16
World (ageing) population

Source European Commission, DG RTD (VLEEM)
17
Cost of ageing in Europe
Source European Commission H. Bogaert, Ageing
Report
18
Population change in the EU

After 2025, reduction of the EU population (520
millions)
Source United Nations
19
EU transport

Source European Commission, Eurostat and DG TREN
20
Megacities
1950 (millions) 2005 (millions)
Mexico 3 23
Seoul 1 23
Sao Paolo 2,5 21
Mumbai (Bombay) 3 20
Jakarta 1,5 16
Dacca 0,5 16
Cairo 2,5 15
Manila 1,5 14
Lagos 0,5 14
Shanghai 5,5 13
Teheran 1 12
Istanbul 1 11
Source Davies / Le Quément (rounded figures)
21
Increasing urbanisation
URBAN 37
URBAN 47
RURAL 40
URBAN 60
RURAL 63
RURAL 53
1970
2000
2030
Source UN-Habitat
22
Some questions
  • Services economy
  • Public policies
  • Intangible investments
  • Consumer behaviours
  • Technological and social innovation
  • New indicators


23
Potential transitions Towards
  • A multi-polar world and world governance
  • Thrust relationships - hard / soft power
  • A new universalism
  • A large integrated Europe and a global Europe
  • An active and healthy ageing
  • A new socio-ecological production and consumption
    model

24
Conclusions
  • Gonzalez Report Europe 2030
  • Europe is at a crossroads either we keep and
    strengthen the role as one of the main global
    actors, or we become an "increasingly irrelevant
    outgrowth on the Asian continent"

25
Another view of the world
Source http//www.flagslist.com/maps/Asia/asia-ma
p.gif
26
More information
http//ec.europa.eu/research/social-sciences/
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