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Impacts of Trade and Transport Policy

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Impacts of Trade and Transport Policy on International Cargo Shipping and Economic Activities (final draft report) Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Dr. Eng. Senior Researcher – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Impacts of Trade and Transport Policy


1
Impacts of Trade and Transport Policy on
International Cargo Shipping and Economic
Activities (final draft report) Ryuichi
SHIBASAKI, Dr. Eng. Senior Researcher National
Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management
(NILIM), MLIT JAPAN
2
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
  • 30th TPT-WG (April 2008, Philippines) approval
    of the proposal
  • 31st TPT-WG (August 2008, Peru)
  • intermediate reports and discussion 1
  • 32nd TPT-WG (July 2009, Singapore)
  • intermediate reports and discussion 2
  • 33rd TPT-WG (October 2010, Japan)
  • final presentation and discussion for
    final report submission

3
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
1) Introduction (Background, Objective,
Methodology) 2) Examples of policies to be
simulated by this system A. Trade Policy B.
Transport Infrastructure Investment and Cost
Reduction Policy C. Risk Management on
International Shipping 3) Discussion
4
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
1) Introduction
5
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
- Trade liberalization and efficient transport
are the most important key issues for regional
development of APEC economies.
  • For further discussion in order to realize trade
    liberalization and
  • efficient transport, if we can know the
    quantitative effects of these
  • policies, the discussion would be very
    effective and fruitful.
  • Ex) - What economic growths are expected by
    trade liberalization
  • and facilitation?
  • - To what degree transport cost is reduced
    by constructing
  • transport infrastructure and
    removing cross-border barriers?

6
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
Excerpt from 5th APEC Transportation Ministerial
Meeting, Joint Ministerial Statement
2. Transportation plays a key role in the APEC
agenda for trade facilitation and
economic integration in the Asia-Pacific region.
The movement of people and goods
underpins economic and social development in the
region. Transport sector activity itself
accounts for a significant portion of
regional economies. It is therefore necessary
that the transport systems are efficient,
convenient and secure.
7
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
  • To develop Trade and Logistics Forecasting
    System for the APEC region, a successive
    prediction system of trade amount and
    international cargo flow, in order to support a
    quantitative discussion for realization of trade
    liberalization and efficient transport among APEC
    economies as well as for each economy
  • This system can be shared for each member
    economy for some analyses on the APEC region and
    its own economy, by collaborating with a
    development group of the system and preparing
    some additional data if needed

8
Trade and Logistics Forecasting System for the
APEC Region
Economic Growth
INPUTS
1. Trade Forecasting Model (chapter 2)
A. Trade Policy
Trade Amount
  • - Values per unit weight
  • Modal Share
  • Containerized Ratio, etc.

2. Cargo Shipping Demand Transforming (chapter 3)
INPUTS
Cargo Shipping Demand (OD cargo flow)
B. Transport Infrastructure Investment C.
Risk Scenario on International Shipping
3. International Cargo Flow Model (chapter 4)
Maritime / Land Transport Cargo Flow by Route
Reduced Shipping Cost
OUTPUTS
8
OUTPUTS
9
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
2) Examples of policies to be simulated by
this system
  • Trade Policy
  • Transport Infrastructure Investment
  • and Cost Reduction Policy
  • C. Risk Management on International Shipping

10
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
What impacts on international cargo volumes and
economic activities of the APEC region are
expected by trade liberalization and
facilitation towards? including bilateral
and multilateral negotiation for concluding
Free Trade and Economic Partnership Agreement
(FTA, EPA)
11
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) Model
  • Most popular model package among the world for
    trade forecast
  • CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) framework
    based on
  • Microeconomic theory

- Many applications in practical field
e.g. GATT 1994 Economic Analysis at Uruguay
Round APEC 1997 Economic Impact
of Trade Liberalization based on Manila
Action Plan
12
(No Transcript)
13
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
Scenario Description
High case the growth rate of economic indices (i.e. population, capital stock, natural resource output, technological advancement) and the reduction rate of tariffs (both in average and bilateral) are large including elimination of tariff within the APEC regions
Middle case the growth rate of economic indices and the reduction rate of tariffs are moderate
Low case the growth rate of economic indices and the reduction rate of tariffs are small
Baseline the growth rate of economic indices based on the past trend and no additional tariff reduction are assumed
14
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
Example of Forecasting Results (1)
Increase rate of trade amount (year 2008 100)
15
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
Example of Forecasting Results (2)
Increase rate of international cargo shipping
demand (year 2008 100)
16
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
What impacts on international cargo flow
patterns, transport costs and economic
activities of the APEC region are expected when
transport policies are implemented? such as
- constructing new terminal and berth in port -
smoothing transaction and shortening lead-time at
terminal - discounting charges and fares, and -
removing cross-border barrier
17
Model for International Cargo Simulation (MICS)
Shipper Submodel
Carrier Submodel
Maximizing profit by alliance (carrier group)
Minimizing perceived cost by individual shipper
1st level
(equilibrium under a condition that other
groups behavior are given)
Demand by routes
(stochastic assignment model)
2nd level
Upper model Choosing import/export ports and
land transport routes
Income maximization model deciding freights of
each route under transport cost given as well as
considering shippers behavior of carrier choice
Stochastic network assignment
including
Price competition model under differentiated
goods
Composition cost of lower model
3rd level
Lower Model Choosing carriers
Cost minimization model minimizing total
transport cost of their own group under their
demand by routes given
Logit Model
freights by routes and carriers
System optimum network equilibrium assignment
model
18
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
Container Ports dealt in the Model (total 143
ports)
Japan 2010
19
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
Land Transport Network for International Cargo
Shipping
zone representative
(origin/destination)
Northeast Asia, Central Asia and Russia
20
zone representative
(origin/destination)
Southeast Asia
21
Oceania
zone representative
(origin/destination)
22
zone representative
(origin/destination)
North America
23
South America
zone representative
(origin/destination)
24
Estimated Results of Container Throughput
(loaded/unloaded/transshipped container) in 2015
25
Calculated reduced cost of international cargo
shipping by container berth investment
26
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
What impacts on international shipping market and
economic activities of the APEC region are
expected when some sea routes such as Straits
of Malacca are blocked due to some security
reasons?
27
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
Blockade of Malacca Strait and detouring to
Lombok Strait
Klang
TJ Pelepas
Malacca Strait
Singapore
TJ Perark (Surabaya)
TJ Priok (Jakarta)
Lombok Strait
Sunda Strait (shallow)
28
Estimated Change of Container Throughput due to
Blockade of Malacca Strait in 2008
29
Calculated increased cost of international cargo
shipping due to the blockade of the Malacca
Strait
30
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
  • Trade liberalization and facilitation can
    accelerate
  • economic and trade growth as well as
  • international shipping demand increase
  • In particular, increasing rate of international
    maritime
  • container shipping demand will surpass
  • trade growth rate

31
32nd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Singapore, 27-30 July 2009
  • Logistics infrastructure investment (e.g.
    maritime
  • container berth construction and deepening)
  • will reduce international shipping cost
  • The benefits will spread not only the economies
  • that policies implemented, but also all of other
  • economies as well as the entire world

32
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
(example)
  • Detouring due to blockade the strait will
    increase
  • international shipping cost
  • Negative impact will broadly spread to the region

33
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
  • Trade and Logistics Forecasting System for the
    APEC region
  • is developed
  • This system will contribute to measuring
    impacts of trade and
  • transport policy on international cargo
    shipping and
  • economic activities of each economy as well as
  • a mutual development of the APEC region
  • By collaborating with a development group of
    the system and
  • preparing some additional data if needed,
    each member economy
  • can use this system to meet its own
    economys interest as well as
  • consider the impact of the entire APEC
    region

34
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
Thank you for your attention!
for contact
Ryuichi SHIBASAKI, Ph.D National Research
Institute for Land and Infrastructure
Management Ministry of Land, Infrastructure,
Transport and Tourism, Japan shibasaki-r92y2_at_ysk.n
ilim.go.jp tel81-46-844-5028,
fax81-46-844-6029 3-1-1 Nagase, Yokosuka,
Kanagawa, 239-0826, Japan
35
data conversion process from bilateral trade
amount into international cargo shipping demand
36
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
International Logistics Flow Model
Model for International Cargo Simulation (MICS)
  • Developed by NILIM, Japan
  • Predicting international logistics flow (mainly
    maritime container cargo)
  • by inputting cargo transport demand (from
    a region to other region)
  • Calculated based on a Nash Equilibrium between
    oceangoing
  • carrier and shipper, as well as between
    major carriers
  • Mainly focusing maritime shipping, but also
    including international
  • and hinterland land transport (only East
    Asia presently)

37
33rd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Japan, 11-14 October 2010
Prediction of Port Cargo Throughput
(in East Asian ports, in 2003, tentative)
Export/Import Container
Transshipped Container
(China)
(China)
(Malaysia)
(Chinese Taipei)
(Malaysia)
(China)
(Chinese Taipei)
38
Predicted Land Cargo Flow in East Asia (in 2003,
tentative)
32nd APEC Transportation Working Group Meeting,
Singapore, 27-30 July 2009
TEU converted
39
Methodology of Risk Scenario Simulation
  • Blockade of Malacca Strait

Increasing Length of Links that were passed
through Malacca Strait (assuming pass
through Lombok Strait)
South Asia Middle East Europe
East Asia Southeast Asia West Coast of North
America
Malacca Strait
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