Priority-Setting for Agricultural Biotechnology in West Africa USAID/EGAT March 9, 2005 William A. Masters Purdue University

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Priority-Setting for Agricultural
Biotechnologyin West AfricaUSAID/EGATMarch 9,
2005William A. MastersPurdue University
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The economic gains from new technology are
proportional to output before adoption (PxQ)
times the probability of cost reduction (K)
Figure 1. Economic impact assessment in one
picture
D
S
S
S
Price
Variables and data sources Market
data P,Q National ag. stats. Field data J Yield
changeadoption rate I Input change per
unit Economic parameters K Supply elasticity
(1 to omit) ?Q Demand elasticity (0?)
J (output gain)
P
K (cost reduction)
?Q
I (input change)
Quantity
Q
Q
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Strategic targeting can be much improved through
concordance
Table 1. Concordance and the allocation of RD investment in Mozambique (1990s) Table 1. Concordance and the allocation of RD investment in Mozambique (1990s) Table 1. Concordance and the allocation of RD investment in Mozambique (1990s) Table 1. Concordance and the allocation of RD investment in Mozambique (1990s) Table 1. Concordance and the allocation of RD investment in Mozambique (1990s) Table 1. Concordance and the allocation of RD investment in Mozambique (1990s)
Share of Agricultural GDP Share of research expenditure Research intensity ratio  
Cassava 44 15 0.3  
Maize 16 12 0.7  
Pulses 9 5 0.5  
Peanuts 7 5 0.6  
Sorghum 6 10 1.6  
Rice 4 4 1.0  
Cotton 2 15 6.4  
Cashew 2 7 3.7  
Sweet potato 1 14 14.2  
Source Uaiene, Rafael, 2002. Priority setting and resource allocation in the National Agronomic Research Institute, Mozambique (Dec. 2002). Source Uaiene, Rafael, 2002. Priority setting and resource allocation in the National Agronomic Research Institute, Mozambique (Dec. 2002). Source Uaiene, Rafael, 2002. Priority setting and resource allocation in the National Agronomic Research Institute, Mozambique (Dec. 2002). Source Uaiene, Rafael, 2002. Priority setting and resource allocation in the National Agronomic Research Institute, Mozambique (Dec. 2002). Source Uaiene, Rafael, 2002. Priority setting and resource allocation in the National Agronomic Research Institute, Mozambique (Dec. 2002).
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Strategic targeting aims for large problems that
are being missed by other investors
Figure 2. Prevalence of stunting in Sub-Saharan
Africa (latest available, includes sub-national
data)
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The biggest needs are in cereals, cassava, and
oilcrops
Fig. 3. Share of food production by crop,
1961-2002
Source Calculated from data in FAOStat (2005),
reproduced in Annex 1.
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Cereals and oilcrops are especially important for
food quality
Fig. 3. Share of protein output by crop,
1961-2002
Source Calculated from data in FAOStat (2005),
reproduced in Annex 1.
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There are huge catch-up opportunities for Africa
to do what Asia did
Figure 5. Average yield of all cereals by
region, 1961-2004
Source Figures 5-10 calculated from FAOStat
(2005) data
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The catch-up opportunities are large in maize
Figure 6. Average yield of maize by region,
1961-2004
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but catch-up opportunities are big in small
grains also!
Figure 7. Average yield of millet by region,
1961-2004
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There are huge catch-up opportunities in cassava
Figure 9. Average yield of cassava by region,
1961-2004
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and also catch-up opportunities in other root
crops
Figure 10. Average yield of other root crops
by region, 1961-2004
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Africa has already done relatively well in cotton
Figure 8. Average yield of seed cotton by
region, 1961-2004
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Africas lag is mainly driven by the relatively
low level of RD spending

Figure 11. Public agricultural RD per unit of
agricultural land, 1971-91 (1985 PPP dollars
per hectare)


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There is huge variation but no growth in RD
expenditure across the region
Figure 12. Agricultural RD intensity in West
and Central Africa, 1971-2001
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From Priority-Setting to Capacity Building

• Can build on experience of seven Sahel regional
  workshops (1994-2002)
• all participants use common spreadsheet methods
• formulas derived directly from graphical model
• using each kind of data in sequence for
  intermediate results
• with open architecture to facilitate adaptation
• participants have access to small grants
• to implement priority-setting exercises
• to report their results at follow-on workshops

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Results and methods are well-tested across West
Africa
Strategic Targeting for Economic Gains