Hydro-diplomacy for Water Cooperation between Afghanistan and Pakistan

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• Hydro-diplomacy for Water Cooperation between
  Afghanistan and Pakistan
• By
• Ashfaq Mahmood
• 3 June 2014

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Organization of Presentation

• Water Resources of Kabul River
• Potential Projects by Afghanistan on Kabul River
• Pakistans Vulnerability
• Climate Change
• Conflict Potential
• Hydro-diplomacy for Water Cooperation

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Kabul-Chitral River Basin

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Schematic Diagram of Kabul River
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Water Sources of Kabul river
Sr No Sub-basin Billion m3 MAF of total flow at border
1 Logar-Upper Kabul 0.5 0.4 2.5
2 Panjsher 3.3 2.6 16.7
3 Chitral 10.5 8.5 54.5
4 Lower Kabul (including 1-3) at border) 19.3 15.6 100
5 Net generated within Afghanistan 8.8 7.1 45.5
6 Availability at Attock 23.5 19
7 Rabi Kharif 4.9 18.5 4 15
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Storage and Power Potential of Kabul River
Sr No Sub-basin B m3 MAF MW Water Demand
1 Panjsher 2.19 1.8 410 1/3 rd of water availability
2 Logar-Upper Kabul 1.31 1.1 0 Twice the water availability
3 Lower Kabul 1.3 1.0 761
4 Total 4.8 3.9 1171
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Power Projects on Kabul River
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Kabul Stream Flow (Av. Monthly)
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Pakistans Vulnerability on Kabul River

• Water Contribution to Indus 23.5 bm3(19) MAF
• Water Received at the Border 19.3 bm3 (15.6 MAF)
  
• Contribution of Chitral River 10.5
  bm3 (8.5 MAF)
• Contribution from Kabul and other Tributaries
  8.8 bm3 (7.1 MAF)
• Projected Future Use Potential in Afghanistan
  3.8 bm3 (3.1 MAF)
• Net Future Availability across the border 15.4
  bm3(12.5 MAF)
• Existing Rabi and Kharif uses will suffer.

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Effects of Climate Change

• Glaciers in the Pamir and Hindu Kush mountains
  shrunk by 30 in the last half century
• Rising temperatures/global warming will result in
  at least 10 reduction in precipitation in the
  next 50 Years.
• Increased summer flows in shorter time spans
  accentuating floods in next few years. It will be
  followed by shortages in the long run.
• Poverty, food and electricity prices, urban
  migration affecting millions of people on the
  cards.
• At present severe drought at least once in 10-15
  years. This frequency will in increase.

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Conflict Potential

• Threat to Existing Uses in Pakistan
• 13 potential dams in Afghanistan with storage
  capacity of 4.93 bm3 (4 MAF). Early Kharif and
  Rabi crops likely to suffer
• Rising water demand in Afghanistan for urban,
  mining, irrigation and environmental flow (3.9
  billion m3/year)
• Threat of climate changescarcity. Major brunt to
  be faced by Pakistan.
• Possible diversion of Chitral River by Pakistan
• Poor watershed management
• Lack of hydro metrological data gathering and
  sharing
• Lack of studies on ground water.
• Outside Promptings, vested interests.

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Hydro-Diplomacy with Afghanistan

• Promote Cooperation and Equitable Sharing of
  Benefits
• Forming Stake Holders Fraternity, exchange
  visits and interactions
• Sharing of Knowledge and Experience
• Joint Projects , Joint Ventures, Joint Studies
• Extend Supporting Hand, establishing water
  institutions,
• Data Collection and Management
• Funding for cooperative activities
• Media Management
• Institutional Arrangements- - The Driver of
  Cooperation
• Afghan Cell with appropriate funding and staff
  (re-locate)
• Pakistan Afghanistan Joint Commission for Water
  Cooperation
• Formulation of Treaty/Agreement in an atmosphere
  of mutual cooperation and understanding.

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Conclusions

• Embark upon a Water Cooperation Initiative to
  precede negotiations of Treaty.
• Set up Joint Commission.
• Provide funds to support cooperative activities.

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THANK YOU