Lecture 23: Everything You Always Wanted to Know About Central Asia* *but were afraid to ask

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Lecture 23Everything You Always Wanted to Know
About Central Asiabut were afraid to ask

• May 19, 2010

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About the final

• June 10, 2010, 830-1020, GUG 220
• 2 parts long essays (study questions provided in
  advance) 6 short-answer concepts/terms
• No cheat sheets

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Central Asia
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Central Asia Fun Facts

• Poorest part of USSR GDP/capita
• Kazakhstan 12,000
• Kyrgyzstan 2,200
• Tajikistan 1,800
• Turkmenistan 5,800
• Uzbekistan 2,700
• (US 48,000)
• Monocultures cultivation of a single crop
• Mostly Muslim Kaz (47)-Turkmen (89)
• Nations and borders artificial creations of 20th
  century
• USSR provided homelands
• Thrust into independence in 1991

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Democratize?

• Transition theory of western governments and
  INGOs autocracy ends, transition begins
• Literacy 99, womens rights
• Resources oil, cotton, gold, uranium
• IMF, western economists advised

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No.
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Why Not Democracy?

• Low income
• Weak civil society
• Resource curse
• Bad neighbors
• Decline in economic security, human development
• USSR had generous welfare state
• End of subsidies
• Loss of investment and export markets?
  unemployment
• Corruption
• Bad leaders

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Parade Magazines List of Worse Dictators2006

• 1) Omar al-Bashir, Sudan. Age 62. In power since
  1989
• 2) Kim Jong-il, North Korea. Age 63. In power
  since 1994
• 3) Than Shwe, Burma (Myanmar). Age 72. In power
  since 1992.
• 4) Robert Mugabe, Zimbabwe. Age 81. In power
  since 1980.
• 5) Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan. Age 67. In power
  since 1990.
• 6) Hu Jintao, China. Age 63. In power since 2002.
  
• 7) King Abdullah, Saudi Arabia. Age 82. In power
  since 1995.
• 8) Saparmurat Niyazov, Turkmenistan. Age 65. In
  power since 1990.
• 9) Seyed Ali Khameini, Iran. Age 66. In power
  since 1989.
• 10) Teodoro Obiang Nguema, Equatorial Guinea. Age
  63. In power since 1979.

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Nation-building

• No pre-Soviet national identity
• Presidents as founding fathers
• Rewrote history books
• Adopted national symbols

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Nation-building
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Pipeline Politics in the Caspian Basin

• What they want
• US diversify sources, help US companies, isolate
  Russia, Iran ? use Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline
• Russia obligations to Europe, maintain sphere
  of influence
• China as much oil/gas as possible
• Iran not be isolated
• Central Asia not be dependent,

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US Bases in Central Asia

• Support Afghanistan operations, lily pad
  strategy, wean former Soviet states off Russia
• Russia first accepted, then demurred
• US alliance with Uzbek dictator Islam Karimov
• 2005 Andijan massacre, base closed
• Kyrgyzstan Manas base still open, but for how
  long?

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Kyrgyzstans 2010 Easter Revolution
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What Can We Learn from Central Asia?

• Transition paradigm wrong
• The art of faking democracy
• US foreign policy interests vs. principle
• Muslim world diverse
• How we conceptualize regions matters