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Nuclear Forensics: A Capability We Hope Never to Use

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Title: Nuclear Forensics: A Capability We Hope Never to Use


1
Nuclear Forensics A Capability We Hope Never to
Use
  • Jay Davis
  • The Hertz Foundation

APS Workshop on Nuclear Weapons Issues in the
21st Century George Washington
University November 3rd, 2013
2
Product warning information
  • This talk is at the intersection of physics and
    national security policy
  • It has no equations and no data
  • The interesting figures are lifted from the
    Internet
  • It does not guarantee a happy ending
  • However, the area is important and an immensely
    rewarding one in which to work

Be careful, or you could end up doing this sort
of thing
3
Detonation of a nuclear weapon in the US is
considered to be the greatest threat facing the
country
  • President Clinton expressed this threat
  • President Bush expressed this threat
  • President Obama has expressed this threat
  • The danger is not just the human, environmental,
    infrastructure and economic cost, but the threat
    to democratic principles resulting from the
    reaction to the event

Nuclear forensics plays a role in both preventing
and responding to such an event
4
Ive had both technical and political involvement
with this subject
  • After the First Gulf War, I did nuclear forensics
    in Iraq
  • At LLNL, I created the lab and group that
    developed AMS capabilities to measure actinide
    isotopic fractions
  • At DTRA, I started the national program in
    post-detonation forensics
  • I now serve on review panels evaluating
    activities in nuclear forensics here and abroad

5
The forensics problem splits into pre-detonation
and post detonation activities
  • Pre-detonation activities focus on interdiction
    and identification of materials in transit
  • These are inherently multinational
  • Use unclassified research techniques
  • Move at a normal law enforcement or intelligence
    timescales
  • Post-detonation activities will focus on
    characterizing and understanding the device
  • These will start as unilateral and may remain
    so
  • The techniques are a mix of classified and
    unclassified
  • The timescale will be screaming panic

6
An international technical working Group was born
over a decade ago to address post-Cold War
nuclear trafficking
ITWG formed in 1995-1996
Paris, France 2.5 g HEU (72)
Podolsk, Russia 1.5 kg HEU
Andreeva Guba, Russia 1.8 kg HEU (36)
Batumi, Georgia 920 g HEU (30)
St. Petersburg, Russia 3.0 kg HEU (90)
Ruse, Bulgaria 4 g HEU (72)
Munich, Germany 400 g Pu (87 Pu-239)
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
03
01
02
04
05
06
Vilnius, Lithuania 100g HEU (50)
Georgia/Armenia Border 170g HEU
Moscow, Russia 1.7 kg HEU (20) - Electrostal
Diversion
Murmansk, Russia 4.5 kg HEU (20)
Tengen, Germany 6 g Pu (99.75 Pu-239)
Prague, Czech Republic (2) 0.415 g 17 g HEU
(87.8)
NOTE enrichments have not been independently
verified for all seizures
Landshut, Germany 0.8 g HEU (87.8)
Prague, Czech Republic 2.7 kg HEU (87.8)
As of May 2006
7
There is a robust and effective international
program in pre-detonation forensics
  • However
  • There are no universal databases of nuclear
    materials properties
  • Different states have different classification
    rules about weapons materials
  • Nuclear fuel data (alloys, cladding, burnable
    poisons) are restricted for obvious commercial
    reasons
  • Different states have very different views on the
    nuclear risks to themselves
  • Some states watch but do not yet play

8
Postdetonation Nuclear Forensics is not a new
subject
  • All the necessary technical tools were well
    developed and exercised in the Cold War
  • To diagnose our own weapons
  • To learn from the nuclear weapons tests of other
    states
  • But our goal was design information, not
    attribution
  • What is new is the need to execute this task
    fast, in public, and against an unknown
    perpetrator
  • Success will require sharing information and
    resources and exercising and evaluating multiple
    agencies together not a common governmental
    core competency

9
What is new is a challenge posed by Hans Mark in
1990
  • He pointed out to us in a talk at LLNL that the
    relaxation in US-Soviet tensions made use of a
    single weapon more likely
  • That such a weapon would likely be used in
    tribal, sectarian, or terrorist application
  • That the weapon might be unattributed
  • and that we had not prepared to work that problem

I got religion on this issue then and became a
real pain to many organizations but remember
that classical investigative techniques might
still solve the problem
10
An unattributed weapon could have multiple sources
  • One intentionally smuggled in by a peer state
  • One lost by a peer state and used by a terrorist
  • One built by a rogue state with a small covert
    weapons program
  • One built by terrorists from materials supplied
    or lost by a weapons state
  • One sold by a weapons state
  • One diverted from the inventory of a collapsing
    weapons state

The goal of forensics is to try to differentiate
among these cases
11
An unattributed device could be of varying size
and sophistication
  • Here are three candidates
  • The Trinity Device
  • One of our weapons -- a SADM
  • A hypothetical Russian suitcase bomb

12
Authority and Ability are widely dispersed for
this problem
  • The Intelligence Community owns the National
    Technical Means that detect an explosion and
    measure yield
  • The FBI owns response to terrorism and
    development of evidence for prosecution
  • State and local authorities own the consequence
    management issue assisted by the Federal
    Government
  • DOE owns the analytical tools and the weapons
    codes to work the inverse problem
  • DHS has the responsibility for Securing the
    Homeland
  • State has the authority to manage response
    overseas
  • DoD has responsibility for operations overseas
    and, inevitably, the resources to back everyone
    else up

The multiple interactions and handoffs in this
community are now tested in exercises against the
clock
13
A real scenario
  • A Russian tactical nuclear device, diverted
    without their knowledge, is smuggled into the
    United States
  • Moved by vehicle, undetected, into the center of
    a US city (Cincinnati)
  • Device is detonated, without warning, at ground
    level, timed to maximize casualties
  • 10 kiloton yield is assumed

14
Situation - 4 Hours After Detonation Some
Regional Federal Assets Possibly On-scene
1 m wide
Local response efforts will likely focus on the
area of severe (inner blue circle) and moderate
(yellow circle) damage to structures Response
impaired by infrastructure damage, and extensive
power, telecom system damage upset (dashed
circle) 100,000 people were killed outright or
lethally exposed (within shaded red area) -many
apparent survivors will eventually die, despite
evacuation and extensive medical treatment
4 miles long
15
Situation - 12 Hours After Detonation
Early-Responding National Assets Arriving,
Operational
1 1/2 miles
8 miles
Growth of fallout area exposes those not
evacuated to lethal radiation dose -40,000 more
potential fatalities -many may still require
medical treatment, even if evacuated Precautionary
evacuation area will include many more
people Many responders may become fatally exposed
due to operations in high-radiation areas -will
hamper mid-term response
16
Longer Range, Longer-Term Consequences
Within 7 days, significant population areas will
receive radiation exposures exceeding annual
limits for- Radiation workers- 5 Rad 195,000
persons 1000 sq miles General public- 0.5
Rad 311,000 persons 125-1244 extra cancer
deaths 5800 sq miles Psychological effects
outweigh medical ones
WHEELING
PA
DAYTON
gt 0.5 Rad
gt5 Rad
CINCINNATI
OH
KY
LEXINGTON, KY
WV
17
The Presidents questions are
  • Was it really nuclear and was it ours or Russian?
  • How big is the event?
  • Is there another one?
  • What steps do we now take to prevent a subsequent
    event?
  • How did it get there?
  • Where did it come from?
  • Who did it?

18
Answers we can really give -- eventually
  • It was really nuclear and the yield was?
  • From NTM Maybe!
  • It used Plutonium or Uranium
  • Field measurements
  • It had 14 MeV neutrons
  • Field measurements
  • Efficiency of burn of the fuel
  • From fuel isotopics in recovered samples
  • Weight of the fuel, hence device sophistication
  • From combining yield and efficiency
  • Fuel production technique
  • From stable isotopic signatures in recovered
    samples
  • Design details and sophistication
  • By comparing all signatures with forward runs of
    design codes and archived test results

All this data combined with intelligence and FBI
information may lead to attribution
19
Early Yield Determination will come from
satellites
  • Both GPS and DSP constellations carry optical
    nuclear detectors
  • Quaintly called Bhangmeters
  • Originally designed for treaty monitoring, they
    have forensic value
  • Exact sensitivity, accuracy, and system response
    time are classified

20
In the present construct of the forensics program
  • The intelligence community has to deliver yield
    information quickly
  • FBI and DoD have to expedite access to the site
    and provide transport and chain of custody of the
    samples
  • Though it may be possible to grab airborne
    samples rapidly with RPVs or fighter aircraft
  • The national labs have to operate 24X7 in
    analysis mode
  • An oversight group has to vet technical results
    and inferences
  • The FBI and Intelligence Community have to
    practice integrating technical results with other
    data
  • The political establishment demanding an answer
    has to understand what is possible and on what
    timeline
  • The public has to be informed and reassured

And all this has to work under hysterical
pressure!
21
The forensics program operates at varying levels
of openness
  • Databases of nuclear materials are a mix of
    unclassified and classified, open and proprietary
  • Sample and information acquisition methods may be
    open or classified
  • Most of the analytical techniques are well
    established research tools, are peer-reviewed,
    and meet the Daubert criteria for admission in
    court
  • The weapons codes and test results used to draw
    design inferences are obviously classified and
    will remain so
  • The ease of exchange of information depends on to
    whom one is talking much information flow
    depends upon personal relationships

22
As Director of CAMS at LLNL, I proposed and built
AMS Hardware for Nuclear Forensics
  • AMS is insensitive to molecular isobaric
    interferences (e.g., 236U vs. 235UH) which
    enables ultra-sensitive and rapid measurement of
    long-lived radioisotopes
  • Instrumental backgrounds lt105 atoms
  • Isotope ratios as low as 10-17
  • Measurement times are typically a few minutes.

Getting law enforcement and intelligence
community investment to augment a shared facility
is a challenge
23
As Director of the Defense Threat Reduction
Agency, I established a forensics program
The Deputy Secretary of Defense was willing to
invest 25M per year for several years on my say
so to work a possibly impossible problem
A great lesson here is that if you cant sell a
program, go to Washington and start one!
24
Defining our policy goals is essential to
international collaboration
  • Our priorities post-detonation are
  • Sustain the authority and credibility of the
    Government
  • Determine the probability of further events
  • Manage the consequences of the present event
  • Motivate the population to take appropriate
    protective measures
  • Determine the source of the weapon and the likely
    perpetrators
  • Decide what prosecution or retribution steps to
    take
  • We need foreign participation to
  • Be our partners in Red Teaming, exercise
    creation, and blind sample round robin activities
  • Provide data on fissionable materials before the
    event
  • Tighten materials and information controls before
    the event
  • Assist us in pursuit and capture of perpetrators
    after the event

We do not want to overplay forensics as deterrent
activity, confusing attribution with retribution
25
In terms of technology
  • We need new systems and instrumentation for rapid
    sample acquisition and in-field analysis
  • We need to revamp our in-lab equipment and
    optimize it for the speed of this task
  • We need a new generation of experts
  • We need to use our weapons codes to model the
    thousands of device cases that we might see
    almost all of which look nothing like our own
    weapons

26
In terms of operations
  • We need to decide how many events we anticipate
    handling
  • And staff appropriately
  • We need to exercise all components of the program
    regularly against real cases and with real
    timelines
  • We need to institutionalize the review and
    feedback process as the Military does in its war
    gaming
  • We need to train the Cabinet Members in their
    roles and what can be expected
  • And ensure that this knowledge carries across
    changes of Administrations
  • And deal with the average tour of duty of
    twenty-seven months of a Presidential Appointee

27
In terms of practice
  • Exercises for this capability need to be run at
    all the levels appropriate for emergency
    response
  • Tabletop
  • Step play
  • Full field and home exercises with the clock
    running
  • The exercises should be used to evaluate and
    determine
  • Doctrine
  • Policy questions for investigation
  • Organization
  • Equipment
  • RD for future needs
  • Results of these exercises should influence
    careers and budgets
  • As they do in the military

28
In terms of communication
  • The Government needs to
  • Decide what to say about the program to the
    public
  • Determine who is the best spokesman at the best
    time
  • Consider how its messages will be heard by
    multiple constituencies
  • Agencies
  • Members of Congress
  • The citizenry at large
  • Foreign governments and populations
  • Subject itself to tests of performance in this
    area

Poor communication in these situations can make
matters worse!
29
The current state of the game
  • The US has a competent and practiced program of
    post-detonation forensics
  • The policy decision needed is to resource it
    appropriately in the defense, counter-proliferatio
    n, and non-proliferation portfolio
  • The program needs then to be explained to the
    public and the international community and to be
    practiced against its possible need here or
    abroad

30
Whats in play that would affect the program?
  • The APS/AAAS unclassified study of the program
    endorsed it and made strong resource
    recommendations
  • The recently completed NAS classified review was
    able to address research and operational needs
    more deeply
  • There is a proposal for Track II talks with the
    Russians on this subject opening the most
    important door
  • In the reshaping of the nuclear weapons program
    that is now in progress, the nuclear counter
    terrorism component will likely have a much
    larger role

31
I have several important acknowledgements to make
  • To Hans Mark, for sensitizing me to this
    interesting issue over twenty years ago
  • To Deputy Secretary of Defense John Hamre, for
    being willing to give me 25M a year when I was
    Director of DTRA to work a problem that might not
    have had a solution
  • To many people at DTRA, Los Alamos, Sandia and
    Livermore, for following me into a dark place and
    actually coming out on the far side with
    technical and operational success
  • And to you, for listening to this strange talk at
    the intersection of physics and politics
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