Moving Forward: Critical Water Resources Information for Floods to Droughts

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Moving Forward Critical Water Resources
Informationfor Floods to Droughts

• Responsive to Natural Disasters
• Forecasts for Hazard Risk Management
• Valuable Data for Local and State Governments
• Detailed Information for Zip Code Level Analysis

Gary Carter NOAA Hydrology Program Manager HIC
Briefing July 10, 2006
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Better Information for Water Management Decisions
Water Management
Hydrology and Water Resources Modeling, Data
Assimilation
Drought Mitigation Flood Management Flash
Flood/Debris Flow Public Safety Water
Supply Transportation Emergency
Management Agriculture Ecosystem Stewardship
Weather and Climate Predictions Temperature Preci
pitation Wind,
Water Prediction
Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction
Decision Support Tools
Socioeconomic Sciences
NOAAs High-Resolution, Gridded Water Resources
Product Suite
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Hydrology Program Objectives

• Program Priorities
• Extend Hydrologic Forecasting Service to Include
• Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
• Robust Hydrologic Data Assimilation Techniques
• Operational Distributed Models
• Meet Customer Needs, e.g., National Integrated
  Drought Information System (NIDIS)
• Conduct economic impact analyses and case studies
  to identify the potential benefits of water
  resource forecasts

• Water Resource Services
• Watershed and soil condition forecasts for hazard
  resilient communities
• Run-off or River flow
• Soil moisture
• Soil temperature
• Precipitation
• Snowpack
• Surface storage
• Ground water
• Water temperature
• Water quality
• Short- to long-term water risk forecasts support
  hazard resistant businesses (including
  agriculture) and local ecosystem stewardship

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Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
next steps
NWSRFS Data Service deliver, via AWIPS
Operational Build 7.2, first increment of
distributed hydrologic modeling capability
integrated into NWSRFS using CHPS Data
Services Hydrology XML Consortium build
schema-compliant XML read/write adapters, develop
SHEF-XML translators, develop common dictionary,
move Consortium beyond OHD Future NWSRFS
Enhancements Reservoir model provide RFCs
with a CHPS service to run the USACE Hydrologic
Engineering Centers Reservoir System
Simulation program (HEC-ResSim) as an integral
part of NWS operations Additional Hydraulic
Models identify potential applications and
feasibility for operational use of the USACE
River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) Rapid Prototype
Opportunity leverage WL/Delft Flood Early
Warning System (FEWS) infrastructure to expedite
migration to CHPS- compliant hydrologic science
to operations
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HydroMet Testbed Operations NOAA Earth System
Research Lab Physical Sciences Division
- Processing observations for 2005-2006 -
Planning next instrumentation phase
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Long-term Vision Integrated Water Science
Coupled ocean/atmospheric/ land-surface model
(global)
WEATHER CLIMATE FOCUS
Coupled atmospheric/land-surface model (regional)
Observing Systems
Common Hydrologic
Land-Surface Modeling System (Uncoupled)
Research Labs
WATER FOCUS
Land Surface Hydrology Water Resources Modeling
Interface with Estuary Models, Water Quality
Models
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Long-term VisionWater Science Center

• Enable Full Utilization of Existing and New
  Observing Systems
• Infrastructure and tools to enhance data infusion
  and assimilation capabilities (e.g., Land
  Information System LIS Global Land Data
  Assimilation System - GLDAS)
• Research-to-Operations
• Test new water prediction models and forecasting
  techniques for time scales of hours to months

NOAA
EPA
DOD
New observing systems
In-Situ
Radar
Experimental RFC Data Assimilation and Water
Resources Modeling
Operational Data Assimilation and Water Resources
Modeling
USGS
NASA
Airborne
Satellite
New physiographic data
Community Modeling
Physiographic
DOE
USDA
Academia
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Arizona NIDIS DemoSummer 2007 - Colorado Basin
RFC
Observations
NERON SW Expansion
Analysis
Experimental Forecast System
Collaborative Research
Distributed Model Forecasts
Forecast Grids Soil Moisture, Streamflow, etc.
NIDIS web portal Users (public, industry)
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What could the Hydrology Program deliver as an
initial contribution to NIDIS???Low Flow
Hydrologic Data
Low-Flow Related Impacts in the North Platte
River Basin National Weather Service / National
Drought Mitigation Center Station ID NTPN1 -
North Platte River at North Platte, NE
Flow (cfs) Stage (ft) Impacts Timing/Other Considerations Source
224 In-stream habitat and recreation may become diminished April-September Nebraska Game and Parks Commission (2004)
150 In-stream habitat and recreation may become diminished October-March Nebraska Game and Parks Commission (2004)
75 In-stream habitat and recreation may become poor Nebraska Game and Parks Commission (2004)
With low river flows, the water table drops in the northeast portion of North Platte, making it easier for the city to excavate without dewatering Jerry Deal, North Platte Water Supervisor
City of North Platte well field not affected by low river flows Jerry Deal, North Platte Water Supervisor
Flow river flow expressed in cubic feet per
second Stage river level expressed in feet
Source Project Report on Low Flow/Stage Related
Impacts in the North Platte River Basin Prepared
by the National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC)
for NWS Central Region, July 25. 2005
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Low Flow Forecasts Where and Why
Uses for Low Flow Forecasts Uses for Low Flow Forecasts
Recreation Agriculture
Power Generation Navigation
Water Supply Water Treatment
Watershed Conservation Environmental Modeling
Habitat Preservation International Treaty Requirements
Region Points
Alaska 6
Central 11
Eastern 13
Southern 12
Western 11
TOTAL 53
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The Way Forward

Activity OHDs Partners Primary Focus
AWIPS Evolution SEC, MDL, GSD, Raytheon Bug Free Builds, Service Oriented Architecture, RTO
Tropical Storm Flooding NWS HSDs, FEMA Static Flood Maps, FF Tools
Integrated Snow Modeling NOHRSC, DSST, Hydro Res Community Meet RFC Needs
Hydrologic Verification HSDs, HICs Measure Impacts of ST
International Hydro Support NWS IA Share Expertise
NOAA Hydro Program Plans Team NOAA Budget Justification
CHPS Prototypes/ResSim Integration APEX, RTi, Delft, USACE Open System, Expedite Research to Operations
Integrated Hydraulic Modeling RFCs, USACE, Delft Better Tools for RFCs
HydroMet Testbed/DMIP 2 OAR, Hydrologic Research Community Multi-sensor Precip, Data Assimilation, Dist Models
Debris Flow Warning Demo NWS WR, USGS, MDL Site specific warnings
QPE Collaboration NSSL, NESDIS, NCDC Leverage Expertise
Arizona NIDIS Demonstration NWS WR, OAR Soil Moisture Forecasts
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Funding Priorities

• Enhancing core hydrologic operations (RFCs and
  WFOs)
• Evolving to an open system architecture and
  developing an integrated water science program
• Leveraging multi-disciplinary collaborations to
  expedite the transfer of research to operations
  for new services related to
• Water Resources
• Coastal / Estuary / Inland Environmental
  Stewardship and Hazard Risk Management

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Hydrology Program FY 2006 Enhancement Activities
AHPS 4.9M
Water Resources 1.5M
Hurricane Supplemental 2.5M
Evolving Future Environment
Current Operational Environment
Requirements Process
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• Hydraulic Model Evaluation
• Collaborative Research
• HydroMet and HydroTestbed
• Hydro Science Roadmap
• Integrated Water Science

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• MPE Evolution (RFC and WFO)
• FFMP Enhancements
• Gridded QPE
• Site Specific Model (variational data
  assimilation)
• Debris Flow Applications

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• Distributed Model Calibration and Enhancement
• Logistical, Deterministic, and Ensemble
  Verification Projects
• More Robust Ensemble Prediction Techniques
• DMIP II
• Streamflow Regulation Accounting (Calibration
  and Extension)

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• CHPS Evaluation and Evolution
• HYDRO XC Consortium
• Distributed Model Applications
• Streamflow Regulation Tools
• Interactive Calibration Software
  (rearchitecture)

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• AHPS and RFC Web Page Evolution
• HydroGen Enhancements
• Static Flood Inundation Map Libraries