2nd International Conference on Fog and Fog Collection -----------------------------

1
Goulburn-Murray Water Meeting of 16th December
2002, TATURA Briefing on Current Climate
Conditions and Outlook Dr Harvey Stern (Climate
and Consultancy, Victoria)
2
Last 36 Months Rainfall
3
Last 12 Months Rainfall
4
Last 3 Months Rainfall
5
Rainfall Deficiencies (8 months)
6
Rainfall Deficiencies (12 months)
7
El Niño and Rainfall
8
La Niña and Rainfall
9
SOI Values
10
Seasonal Weather and SOI (strength and direction
of relationship) (brown diamondsrain green
squaresmin temp orange crossesmax temp
11
Wheat Yields and SOI
12
Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs)
13
SST Precipitation Relationship
14
SST Temperature Relationship
15
Seasonal Forecast Accuracy (precipitation)
16
Rainfall Forecasts
17
Min Temp Forecasts
18
Max Temp Forecasts
19
El Niño Summary

• During the past week the real-time SOI has
  dropped further  to -13. 
• Nevertheless, the warm oceans in the central
  Pacific near the date line continue to show signs
  of cooling.
• Cool waters below the surface have extended into
  the central equatorial Pacific from the west, but
  these are still at depths greater than 100 m,
  undercutting the warm water.
• Of the 12 available model predictions from
  November only three indicate El Niño conditions
  at five months April 2003. 
• These predictions are broadly consistent with the
  observation that El Niño tends to break down
  inlate summer or autumn. 

20
Forecast Summary

• Only a 50/50 chance of above normal rainfall
  during summer 2002/2003.
• A slightly increased chance of below normal
  overnight temperatures.
• A slightly increased chance of above normal
  daytime temperatures.
• Given the history of El Niño events, a breakdown
  might be expected late in the summer or during
  the autumn.