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Demographics: The most predictable of trends the easiest of opportunities?

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Demographics: The most predictable of trends the easiest of opportunities? Lecture 6: U09069 Management Futures Zo Dann – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Demographics: The most predictable of trends the easiest of opportunities?


1
Demographics The most predictable of trends the
easiest of opportunities?
  • Lecture 6
  • U09069 Management Futures
  • Zoë Dann

2
Learning outcomes
  • To take a global and UK perspective
  • Interrelate trends of demography and extrapolate
    them into the future
  • Discuss some of the difficulties of measurement
  • Relate this to impacts on organisations either as
    opportunities and threats
  • Define some of the responses by organisations

3
Global demography
  • World population change

4
World population
  • Do you know how many people live of the planet?
  • How will the population change over the time of
    this lecturehave a guess
  • Population clocks Lets look at some estimates
  • US Government census bureau
  • Berkeley University

5
Population density
Source NRCS, 1994
6
Size of country based on population
http//www.xist.org/earth/gen_popsize.aspx
7
The future of population growth
  • Natural resources will not be sufficient to
    support population growth?

8
Why do we need to know?
  • Governments, international agencies, private
    sector
  • Strategic planning and long term investment
  • Pensions and health costs, labour force size,
    health strategies
  • Future consumers (e.g. the emerging global middle
    class) and future workforce
  • Identifying needs for bulges through following
    progression of cohorts
  • Walker (2008, 2009)

9
Malthusian crisis
  • Natural resources will not be sufficient for
    population growth

Crisis
Food supply
Volume of food Birth rate
Birth rate
1798
Time
10
World population projection
11
World population projections
UN 2004 projections (red, orange, green) and US
Census Bureau historical estimates
UN statistics, 2004
12
Growth rate projections
Why the fall?
13
The population - a dying breed?
Minnesotans For Sustainability
Source Minnesotans For Sustainability, 2006
14
What actually happens
Births and Mortality rates
Population Growth
births
mortality
Time
Notestein's Demographic Transition Model, 1945
15
E.g.Tanzania
NBS, 2002
16
E.g. Japan
Statistics Bureau, MIC2003
17
Demographic Transition
Notestein's Demographic Transition Model, 1945
18
Ageing population
Source Government Actuary's Department (GAD),
2003 principal projections and Office for
National Statistics (ONS)
19
India v China
Source UN Population Division (1997) World
Population Prospects, 1950-2050. The 1996
Edition. (Annex I and II)Chart G.K. Heilig,
1996, IIASA-LUC
20
And the rest
Source Population Division of the Dept. of
Economic and Social Affairs of the UN
Secretariat, World Population Prospects The 2004
Revision.
21
Losses and gains
  • Interactive map

22
Population growth and composition
  • Population growing more rapidly in countries with
    fewest resources
  • Lower growth in Europe, North America, Oceania
    and Asia (av. 1.7 growth)
  • Higher in Latin America (av. 1.9) and Africa
    (av. 2.8) (UN, 2007)
  • Male/Female ratio usually favours women
  • Eastern European contracting
  • e.g. Ukraine TFR 1.15, Czech Republic 1.25
  • Hypermortality of Russia normally associated
    with effects of major war (Walker,
    2008)

23
Urbansiation
24
Urbanisation The second wave
25
Urbanisation
  • In 1950, New York was the largest city with 12.3m
    people (London, 8.7m people)
  • By 2007, there were an estimated 26 mega-cities,
    with 16 in the developing world
  • Tokyo, Japan 33,6M
  • Seoul, South Korea 23,4M
  • Ciudad de México 22,4M
  • New York, USA 21,9M
  • Mumbai, India 21,6M
  • Dehli, India 21,5M
  • São Paulo, Brazil 20,6M
  • Los Angeles, USA 18,0M
  • Shanghai, China 17,5M
  • Osaka, Japan 16,7M
  • Interactive map
  • http//www.unfpa.org/pds/images/Trend_Graphic.swf

26
Urban Growth
27
Demography
  • A UK perspective opportunities and threats

28
Some key UK trends
  • Population
  • Immigration
  • Fertility rate
  • Death rate
  • Average age of population
  • Number of lone-parents
  • Number living on their own

29
Implication of trends
  • Opportunities and threats

30
Urbanisation, migration and population growth
  • Feeding the world
  • Providing water
  • Temperature
  • Air pollution
  • Destruction of habitat
  • Urban and rural population needs
  • Jobs
  • Health services
  • Education
  • Transport
  • Police
  • Housing

http//www.mfa.fi/uvvwork?id1884507
31
Ageing population
  • Increasing UK population and aged, but
  • Although over 65s still a small proportion,
    expected to grow
  • Implications for
  • Health
  • Employment
  • Pensions
  • Recreation
  • Housing
  • Other????

32
The grey market
  • Some companies have identified the market, e.g.
    Saga
  • Magazines
  • Health plans
  • Holidays
  • Insurance and Finance
  • Medication
  • Employment opportunities e.g. BQ
  • Property market movement

33
Shrinking households
  • Serial co-habitation, lone-parenthood and people
    living alone are expected to increase
  • If true, thencompanies that might benefit
  • Law firms
  • Property developers
  • Child care providers
  • Dating agencies
  • Beauty Salons
  • Home carers for the elderly living alone
  • Others???

34
Implications of demographic changes
  • Emergence of new markets and the decline of
    others
  • e.g. Lone-parenthood childcare provision
  • Need for different products and services
  • e.g. Ageing population (are their needs all the
    same?), migrant new-mothers
  • Need for organisations to either adapt or
    proactively modify their employment policies
  • e.g. Need to accommodate increasing number of
    people living alone

35
But remember
  • After all this analysis

36
Limitation of statistics
  • Some data is from small samples
  • Poor records in developing countries
  • Lack of standard definitions e.g. education
  • Countrys boundaries for areas measured variable
  • Births, deaths, easy to estimate of migration
    much more difficult to evaluate
  • There is no single right way to make
    assumptions about population
  • UN, 1996, 2000

37
Future population change
  • Little about population change is inevitable.
  • US Census, 2000
  • Demography is a science that is seldom kind to
    projection of current trends into the future
  • Walker, 2008
  • Changes affecting life and death and..
    .................!
  • Government policy
  • Weather
  • Happiness
  • Contraception
  • Resources food, water, shelter
  • Technological advances ..

38
So shall we look at the population clock?
  • US Government census bureau

39
Further Reading
  • Kew, J and Stredwick, J, (2006), Business
    Environment, managing in a strategic context,
    Chapter 6, Demographic trends, CIPD
  • Walker, M, (2008),The New Demography of the 21st
    Century Part 1 The birth rate surprise,
    Strategy and Leadership, Emerald, Vol 36 No 6, pp
    42 - 48
  • Walker, M, (2009),The New Demography of the 21st
    Century Part 2 Gender gaps and Population Bulges
    what demography means to the corporate
    planner, Strategy and Leadership, Emerald, Vol
    31 No 1, pp 31- 34
  • Wetherley, P (2008), The Business Environment
    Themes and Issues, Chapter 5 Social
    Demographics, Oxford University Press
  • Discussion on how population statistics are
    estimated http//www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/estan
    dproj.html

40
Appendix 1Global Demography
41
Life expectancy
Source Panagiotis, 2008
42
Appendix 2
  • Demographic Trends
  • UK

43
UK projections on population growth
National Statistics Online www.statistics.gov.uk
44
UK population projections
45
Fertility UK
National Statistics Online www.statistics.gov.uk
46
Registered deaths UK
National Statistics Online www.statistics.gov.uk
47
Net migration
National Statistics Online www.statistics.gov.uk
48
Gender and age UK
National Statistics Online www.statistics.gov.uk
49
Divorce
National Statistics Online www.statistics.gov.uk
50
Ff
Divorce Reform Act 1969 came into effect 1971
National Statistics Online www.statistics.gov.uk
51
Increasing lone parents
52
Increasing one person house holds
National Statistics Online www.statistics.gov.uk
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