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Climate Information for Hydrological Outlooks

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Title: At the Farm Gate: Adapting to Climate Change Impacts Last modified by: David Wratt Document presentation format: On-screen Show Company: NIWA – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Date added: 19 July 2019
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Title: Climate Information for Hydrological Outlooks


1
Climate Information for Hydrological Outlooks
Source NOAA CDC
Source NOAA CPC
David Wratt, Roddy Henderson, Charles Pearson
James Renwick NIWA, New Zealand
Technical Conference on Changing Climate and
Demands for Climate Services for Sustainable
Development Antalya, Turkey, 16-18 February 2010
2
Outline
  • Methodology overview
  • Seasonal climate Updates Outlooks
  • Present conditions
  • Predictability
  • Information used for outlooks
  • The probabilistic projections
  • Producing hydrological outlooks
  • Skill
  • Further guidance products
  • Summary

3
Producing Outlooks - Overview
4
Seasonal Climate Updates and Outlooks
5
National information base
  • 208 open climate stations (118 automatic)
  • 70 soil moisture sites (some NIWA, some local
    government) - combine with modelled soil moisture
    from climate data
  • Hydrometric network gt600 open stations (NIWA
    local government)

6
Climate update
Rainfall anomaly January 2010
Mean T anomaly January 2010
Sunshine anomaly January 2010
7
Soil moisture update
Historical average deficit At 9am on 1 Feb (mm)
Actual deficit at 9am on 1 Feb 2010 (mm)
Anomaly at 9am on 1 Feb 2010(mm)
8
Catchment river flows update
At end January 2010
9
Potential Seasonal Predictability - NZ
Studies by Madden and colleagues in the 1990s
(IJC 1997, 1999) suggest
  • About 50 of the variance of seasonally-averaged
    temperature is potentially predictable (less in
    winter). Madden Kidson, IJC, 1997
  • Only 30 or less of the interannual variance of
    seasonal precipitation is potentially
    predictable. Madden et al, IJC, 1999.

10
Seasonal influences - ENSO state
11
Seasonal influences - ENSO state
Rain anomaly
Rain anomaly
Average El Niño Summer
Average La Niña Summer
12
Information Current ENSO state
CDC SST anomalies (27 Dec 2009 - 23 Jan 2010)
http//www.cdc.noaa.gov/map/images/sst/sst.anom.m
onth.gif
NIWA SOI
January 2010 SOI -0.6 (3-month -0.8)
13
Information Predicted ENSO State
Dynamical
Statistical
Loosely Adapted from http//www.bom.gov.au/clima
te/ahead/ENSO-summary.shtml
14
Information SST around New Zealand
November 2009
December 2009
January 2010
15
Regional climate projections from modelling
centres
IRI
APEC Climate Centre
Precip Feb-April 2010
Temperature Feb-April 2010
16
Six climate forecasting regions
Northland, Auckland, Bay of Plenty
Central North Is, Taranaki, Whanganui, Manawatu,
Wellington
Gisborne, Hawkes Bay, Wairarapa
West Coast, Alps and Foothills, Inland Otago,
Southland
Nelson, Marlborough
Coastal Canterbury, East Otago
17
Statistical model predictions based on present
conditions
For Feb - Mar - Apr 2010
18
Summary of Projections
For Feb - Mar - Apr 2010
19
Consensus probabilistic outlook tables
For Feb - Mar - Apr 2010
20
Moving to Hydrological Outlooks
  • 1-2 hydrologists participate in climate outlook
    teleconference
  • Material on present state and projections passed
    to 8 hydrologists
  • They do individual forecasts, and merge into a
    consensus

21
Assessment by one hydrologist
For FMA 2010
22
Merging into a consensus assessment
For FMA 2010
23
Include in the Update guidance table
24
Presentation on TCU webpage
25
Skill of outlooks - Whole Country
26
Further hydrological product for water supply
utility
Demand average Climate terciles 255025
27
Example hydro-electricity warning La Niña
projections starting May 2007
May 2007 50 chance of move to LN
June LN likely to develop
July LN on its way
August LN falters but still possible
September LN indicators strengthen
October LN conditions have developed
November LN to stay for summer
December LN strengthens
January 2008 LN dominates
February LN likely to remain until autumn
March LN likely to remain until autumn
April LN weakens
These were significant and serious warnings for
both generators and users!
28
The outcome
29
Summary
  • Common seasonal climate outlook products
    information on present state together provide
    sufficient input for producing hydrological
    seasonal outlooks (for soil moisture, catchment
    flows)
  • Skill of climate forecasts for NZ is real but
    modest. Potential level of predictability sets
    limits
  • NIWA flow outlooks have higher skill levels
    overall than rainfall outlooks (influence of
    initial conditions?)
  • Media want climate outlooks, but often dont (or
    wont) understand limits
  • Using probabilistic outlooks requires
    sophisticated approach by end-users.
  • There is potential for collaborating with users
    to develop further products targeted to their
    needs
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