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Applying Fuzzy Logic to Assess Social, Economic, and Ecological Sustainability A Quantitative Approach Applied to the Tongass National Forest

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Title: Applying Fuzzy Logic to Assess Social, Economic, and Ecological Sustainability A Quantitative Approach Applied to the Tongass National Forest


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Applying Fuzzy Logic to AssessSocial, Economic,
and Ecological SustainabilityA Quantitative
Approach Applied to theTongass National Forest
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Title 2Using Knowledge Base Architecture to
Assess the Complexities of FMU SustainabilityA
Quantitative Approach Applied to theTongass
National Forest
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Sustainability in the 1980s
  • Harvest lt Growth, NDY, LTSY, PNV
  • FORPLAN (LP) used to calculate Allowable Sale
    Quantities (ASQ)
  • ASQ was often a target, not a ceiling
  • Huge models on huge machines
  • No one could question the results
  • Difficult to analyze non-market resources

24
1990s
  • Clinton, environmental movement, politics
  • Recreation/tourism Use Explosion
  • Tongass Revision underway, Involvement of Science
  • Pulp Mills Close, Final Tongass Plan
  • GIS, Internal Demands for Accountability
  • Demands for Ecosystem Sustainability
  • Santiago Agreement, Montreal, Certification

25
Bruntland Commission Report
  • Defined sustainability as
  • the management of the human use of the
    biosphere so that it may yield the greatest
    sustainable benefit to present generations while
    maintaining the potential to meet the needs and
    aspirations of future generations.

26
Our take on Sustainability
  • 3 Equal Principles Ecological, Economic, and
    Social
  • Based on Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators
    (a systems approach)
  • Evaluate at the Forest Management Unit (a very
    significant element)
  • We would go the distance (all the way to
    reference values)

27
Criteria and Indicators
  • Principle Ecological Sustainability, etc. (3-7)
  • Criteria Maintain old growth dependent bird
    habitat (4-20)
  • Indicator Average number of snags per harvested
    acre (1-many)
  • Measure (data) Total snags/Total harvested
    acres
  • Reference Value gt 3 snags per acre is OK

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Sustainable Forest Monitoring Initiatives
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Sustainable Forest Monitoring Initiatives
Field-level Realities
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Foundations of the CI Approach
  • Despite geographic differences, efforts should be
    made to harmonize indicator measures and
    reporting.
  • The time dimension of indicators must be
    considered. Trends are essential in evaluating
    the status of ecosystem sustainability.
  • An acceptance of using qualitative and subjective
    measures for indicators.
  • Select indicators to build common understanding
    of what is meant by ecosystem sustainability.

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Foundations Simplified
  • Portable
  • Repeatable
  • Deal with Fuzziness
  • Sensible

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Our Approach
  • 3 Principles of Equal Weight Ecological, Social,
    and Economic
  • Fuzzy Logic to deal with uncertainty, expert
    opinion, and traditional ecological knowledge
  • Spatially display results
  • Clear definitions backed by documented
    assumptions and references
  • No more smoke and mirrors

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The Fuzzy Logic Concept
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Adult-ness (DM)
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Age (Years)
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Pseudo-Fuzzy Logic
(redefined fuzzy parameters)
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Key Terms
  • Boolean vs. Fuzzy Logic
  • Knowledge Base
  • Inference Engine

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Technical Aspects
  • Easy to build a Netweaver Knowledge Base (KB)
  • KBs are very portable
  • Use of Linguistic Variables
  • Incorporation of Risk and Uncertainty
  • Copes with Missing Data
  • Degree of Membership (DM) is not Probability

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Tentatively Suitable Land Process
Identification of Lands Suitable for Timber
Harvest This process is required in old and new
regulations (219.28)
Six attributes to evaluate
4)Slope Fuzzify
5)Site Index Fuzzify
6)MM Haz Fuzzify
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The Tongass Sustainability Model
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