Title: Applying Fuzzy Logic to Assess Social, Economic, and Ecological Sustainability A Quantitative Approach Applied to the Tongass National Forest
1Applying Fuzzy Logic to AssessSocial, Economic,
and Ecological SustainabilityA Quantitative
Approach Applied to theTongass National Forest
2Title 2Using Knowledge Base Architecture to
Assess the Complexities of FMU SustainabilityA
Quantitative Approach Applied to theTongass
National Forest
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23Sustainability in the 1980s
- Harvest lt Growth, NDY, LTSY, PNV
- FORPLAN (LP) used to calculate Allowable Sale
Quantities (ASQ) - ASQ was often a target, not a ceiling
- Huge models on huge machines
- No one could question the results
- Difficult to analyze non-market resources
241990s
- Clinton, environmental movement, politics
- Recreation/tourism Use Explosion
- Tongass Revision underway, Involvement of Science
- Pulp Mills Close, Final Tongass Plan
- GIS, Internal Demands for Accountability
- Demands for Ecosystem Sustainability
- Santiago Agreement, Montreal, Certification
25Bruntland Commission Report
- Defined sustainability as
- the management of the human use of the
biosphere so that it may yield the greatest
sustainable benefit to present generations while
maintaining the potential to meet the needs and
aspirations of future generations.
26Our take on Sustainability
- 3 Equal Principles Ecological, Economic, and
Social - Based on Montreal Process Criteria and Indicators
(a systems approach) - Evaluate at the Forest Management Unit (a very
significant element) - We would go the distance (all the way to
reference values)
27Criteria and Indicators
- Principle Ecological Sustainability, etc. (3-7)
- Criteria Maintain old growth dependent bird
habitat (4-20) - Indicator Average number of snags per harvested
acre (1-many) - Measure (data) Total snags/Total harvested
acres - Reference Value gt 3 snags per acre is OK
28Sustainable Forest Monitoring Initiatives
29Sustainable Forest Monitoring Initiatives
Field-level Realities
30Foundations of the CI Approach
- Despite geographic differences, efforts should be
made to harmonize indicator measures and
reporting. - The time dimension of indicators must be
considered. Trends are essential in evaluating
the status of ecosystem sustainability. - An acceptance of using qualitative and subjective
measures for indicators. - Select indicators to build common understanding
of what is meant by ecosystem sustainability.
31Foundations Simplified
- Portable
- Repeatable
- Deal with Fuzziness
- Sensible
32Our Approach
- 3 Principles of Equal Weight Ecological, Social,
and Economic - Fuzzy Logic to deal with uncertainty, expert
opinion, and traditional ecological knowledge - Spatially display results
- Clear definitions backed by documented
assumptions and references - No more smoke and mirrors
33The Fuzzy Logic Concept
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Adult-ness (DM)
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Age (Years)
34Pseudo-Fuzzy Logic
(redefined fuzzy parameters)
35Key Terms
- Boolean vs. Fuzzy Logic
- Knowledge Base
- Inference Engine
36Technical Aspects
- Easy to build a Netweaver Knowledge Base (KB)
- KBs are very portable
- Use of Linguistic Variables
- Incorporation of Risk and Uncertainty
- Copes with Missing Data
- Degree of Membership (DM) is not Probability
37Tentatively Suitable Land Process
Identification of Lands Suitable for Timber
Harvest This process is required in old and new
regulations (219.28)
Six attributes to evaluate
4)Slope Fuzzify
5)Site Index Fuzzify
6)MM Haz Fuzzify
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45The Tongass Sustainability Model
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