Commercial Assessment Process (CAP): A web-based tool used for primary market research Workshop on Promoting Business Development in Technology 2005 FLC National Meeting

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Commercial Assessment Process (CAP) A
web-based tool used for primary market
researchWorkshop on Promoting Business
Development in Technology2005 FLC National
Meeting

• Ken Dozier
• NASA Far West Regional Technology Transfer
  Center
• May 5th,2005

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The Future
When the Rate of Change Outside is Greater Than
the Rate of Change Inside, The End Is In Sight
Jack Welch, Former Chairman General Electric
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Velocity
According to Silicon Valley CEOs, 60 of the
high-tech items they manufacture today did not
exist 10 months ago
Lon Hatamiya, Secretary - California Trade and
Commerce Agency
Startups are now expected to go public within
6-18 months after venture investment
Donna Jensen, Founder and CEO of startups.com
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1st Perspective

• Knowledge is a New Kind of Asset
• The foundation of industrialized economy is
  shifting from natural resources to intellectual
  assets (Hansen 99) (Davis 98)
• Knowledge assets are viewed as factors of
  production that may be more important than
  traditional resources of capital, labor and land.
  (Davis 98)
• Converging technologies and rapid innovations can
  transform markets Overnight . Administrative
  systems no longer provide the underpinnings of
  value creation. (Teece 98)
• Reward goes to those who are good a sensing and
  seizing opportunities. Dynamic capabilities are
  most likely to be resident in firms that are
  highly entrepreneurial. (Teece 98)

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Global Competition
1. 2.

1. Canada
2. Malaysia
3. Germany
4. Taiwan
5. United Kingdom
6. France
7. Mexico
8. Thailand

Source The 2003 World Competitiveness Yearbook
IMD International
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What is Knowledge?
Truth
Knowledge
Belief
Universal
Social
Personal
No Debate
Converge on debate
Diverge on debate
Effect
Cause
Cause
10 Philosophical Mistakes (Adler 85)
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The Future
Man will never reach the moon, regardless of all
future scientific advances
Lee De Forest, Radio Pioneer, 1957
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Business Taxonomy

• Knowledge Taxonomies (Teece 98)
• Tacit (Social) / Codified (Explicit)
• Observableproduct / Not Observableprocess
• Positive (Failures)/ Negative (Successes)
• Autonomous (Stand Alone)/ Systematic (Part of a
  System)
• Protected (Patent, TM, CW) /Not Protected (Trade
  Secret)

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Industry Clusters
(ERI/McGraw Hill,Americas Clusters,1995)
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The Evolution of Industry
1990-2015
1940-1965
1965-1990
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2nd Perspective

• Entrepreneurship Super Normal Wealth Creator
• Business Environments Have Become
  Hypercompetitive because of the High Magnitude
  and Velocity of Interfirm Rivalries (DAveni,
  94)
• Innovations in Products, Services, Business
  Processes, and Organizational Designs are
  Creating Dramatic Discontinuities in Product-
  Market Spaces and Disrupting the Traditional
  Approaches to Competitive Strategies and Business
  Conduct (Christensen, 97)
• In the Short Run, Entrepreneurial Firms Reaps
  Supernormal Returns (Create Wealth) as
  Established Incumbents and Rivals Seek to
  Understand the Competitive Disruptions in their
  Market Space.(Christensen 97)
• Thus Competition Occurs in the Form of a Series
  of Market Disruption Moves by New Entrants or
  Entrepreneurial Firms and Efforts by Incumbents
  and Rivals to Shape Their Response Actions (Young
  et al 96)

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Make Sell vs Sense Respond
Federal Agencies, SBIR Mission Based, Linear
(push) Universities Curiosity Based, emerging,
(push)
Chabol (large companies) hierarchy, products
based, (push)
Venture Niche markets, public trading (pull)
Incubators and Science Parks created to bridge
gap between development and commercialization
Chart SourceCorporate Information Systems and
Management, Applegate, 2000
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Traditional Entrepreneurship
Typical Waterfall model Six Stages basic
research, development research, product and
process ideas, prototype, production, diffusion
Criticisms Too much focus on the solution
push basic research not the only initiator
stage relationship between research and
commercialization is too complex to be linear.
Users are the key pull to the problems and
markets
Source Sung
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New Non-Linear Model
2001 study of startup companies across Software
telecom (35), Bio-med (19), Computers (16),
and Semi-conductors (10.8) Most innovation at
application stage (55), development ( 22),
research (12) production (9) Age Linear older
( 35-45), non linear (25-35) Education Linear
more (28P,42M,30B), Non Linear (7.5P,
22M,67B) Experience Linear narrower (59
research, 35 commerce), Nonlinear (37 research,
29 commerce, 17 education) Both groups agreed
on success factors business plan, leadership,
technical skills, management skills, and location
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New Non-Linear Model
Developers
Drivers

• Gates Microsoft Xerox
• Jobs Apple Xerox
• Clark SGI ES, Stanford
• Clark Netscape University of Illinois

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Market Redefinition Radical Change
Seven Organizational Change Propositions
Framework, Framing the Domains of IT
Management Zmud 2002
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RTTC FocusDiscovery
Seven Organizational Change Propositions
Framework, Framing the Domains of IT
Management Zmud 2002
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3rd Perspective

• Entrepreneurial Firms Represent a New Online
  Community
• Network computing, supported by advanced
  communications infrastructure, can facilitate
  collaborative entrepreneuralism (Teece 98)
• Successful business models set themselves apart
  in their communication design leading to a
  deconstruction of traditional value chains and
  the emergence of value Webs. (Lechner 01)
• The most critical factor for a venture business
  success is how to implement and commercialize
  lab-based technology/knowledge/ideas into actual
  products and/or services (Sung 01)
• Entrepreneurial firms use knowledge to reshape
  clusters of assets in distinctive and unique
  combinations to serve ever changing customer
  needs. (Teece 98)
• The key sources of wealth creation at the dawn of
  the new millennium will lie with new enterprise
  formation. (Teece 98)

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Online Community
Community Set of Agents MediumAgents user
groupsMedium Internet
Subscribers
Netiquette
Self Organized
Non-Commercial Culture
Communities - Business Models and System
Architectures The Blueprint of MP3.com, Napster
and Gnutella Revisited, Lechner
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Components of a Medium
Knowledge
Intention
Communities - Business Models and System
Architectures The Blueprint of MP3.com, Napster
and Gnutella Revisited, Lechner
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Evidence from Practice

• Secondary Market Research as practiced by expert
  communities may be not be producing market
  knowledge fast enough or broad enough for modern
  high velocity markets
• Market analysis of existing markets was not
  encouraging
• A KMS that uses IT to gather primary market
  information rapidly, facilitates the complex
  transformation between basic research (IP) and
  commercialization (Wealth)
• Online research for potential markets has changed
  the lens
• MOB/WOB community is rich with profitable SMEs

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Dockets
MULTI-CHANNEL SPATIALIZATION SYSTEM FOR AUDIO
SIGNALSU.S. patent 5,438,623 (August 1, 1995)
PROBLEM ADDRESSED separation of auditory inputs
by simulation of different source locations
TECHNICAL APPROACH (1) use of synthetic
auditory head related transfer function
(HRTF) to simulate different virtual spatial
source locations for up to five auditory
signals (2) analog-to-digital conversion for
noise-free processing with HRTF, and subsequent
digital-to-analog conversion for presentation
of modified signals to right and left
ears POTENTIAL APPLICATIONS teleconferencing,
aeronautical communications, virtual reality
video games, command and control BENEFITS (1)
binaural hearing advantages substantial
improvement (6-8 dB)in signal to noise faster
reaction times, less listening fatigue, increased
perception and immersion (2) less expensive than
general purpose 3D audio displays (3)
customizable (4) user-friendly, not requiring
computer interface
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Secondary Market Research MAP
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The Radar
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CAP Tools (Explicit)
In the CAP, say you need to build a Technology
Status Report.
Clicking on the link, brings up more information
about what is a Technology Status Report (TSR),
including an example.
Clicking on the details button reveals more
information about the TSR.
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Market Research Repository
You can sort or filter you selection
Each technology list the available primary
marker research we have done.
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Market Wanted Innovations

• Results for Audio Spatialization CAP
• Real time
• General Solution (360 sphere)
• Low Cost
• Head Orientation Sensitive
• Set Top Box
• Sound Card Add in
• Listener Location Independence

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Market Size

• CAP3 Determines Market
• Use in conjunction with various published
  journals/online tools to determine market size.
• Manufacturing USA
• Predicast Basebook
• U.S. Industry Trade Outlook

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Market Share

• CAP3 Tools will help you determine.
• Market in particular industry.
• Extrapolate today's market share based on
  published data.
• Determine portion of industry segment that new
  technology will affect.
• Determine what a potential company market is
  based on of companies in that industry segment.

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Market Analysis Example
Annual Average Market Share of Industry 400,000,000
Percentage of Market Share 20.00
Percentage Industry Company Segment 1
Annual Single Company Market 800,000.00
Annual Royalty Rate 10 80,000
Up Front Fees 10 for 10 years 80,000
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Changing Assumptions

• CAP3 Tools allow you to quickly change any of the
  assumptions to determine difference technology
  values and royalty rates.
• Change market size
• Change portion of market size
• Change lifetime sales
• Allow user to compare different scenarios

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Media Perspective

• INC. Magazine May 1999
• Michael Porter - Harvard University just formed
  ICIC (Institute for a Competitive Inner City)
  Recently completed a 5 year study of 100 inner
  city growth companies
• 46 compound annual growth rate
• Generated on average 50 jobs/year per company for
  five years
• Annual hourly wage 13/hour high wage jobs at
  26/hr
• Ride the Information Technology and
  Telecommunications wave
• Location, Location, Location

Images courtesy of INC. magazine
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MOB/WOB Firm

• Breakaway
• On going profitable south central MOB IT Service
  Business
• Strong Private and Public Network
• No Products
• Access to Capital Financing
• Far West
• Assisted with Business Plan
• We located Physicist
• Located Chip Designers
• Located Short Run Factory for prototype chips
• Located an Incubator
• Assisting with SBIR and STTR to ensure dual use

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Leveraging Existing Network
Breakaway will take lead on SBIR Phase I and
Phase II (hopefully) Far West RTTC will
support USC School of Engineering will support
STTR work. Large Chip manufacturer is monitoring
process Large Set Top Box manufacturer is
monitoring process VC is monitoring
process Investment Bank is monitoring process DoD
is monitoring process Time to Market 24 to 36
months