The Peak Oil Debate

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The Peak Oil Debate Will global oil production
start its final decline soon, or not? What might
it mean for public transport? Bruce
Robinson Convenor, ASPO-Australia 1st May
2007 PTA
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Outline What is Peak Oil ? the time when
global oil production stops rising and starts
its final decline We will never "run out of
oil" When is the most probable forecast date ?
perhaps 2010-2015 What might it mean for
public transport in Perth lots! Should
transport planners be considering Petrol Droughts
and Peak Oil YES!
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APPEA April 2005 Perth
Australian Petroleum Production Exploration
Association conference

• Please put your hand up if you think that we have
  crossed the Hubbert Peak and we are entering a
  demand driven pricing era,
• and hands up those who dont?
• Undecided

• 1/3rd

• 1/3rd

Eric Streitberg Executive Director ARC Energy
Limited

• 1/3rd

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Chris Skrebowski Editor, Petroleum Review,
LondonThe practical realities

• The world needs oil production flows
• Consumers need delivery flows
• Reserves are only useful as flows
• Worry about flows not reserves

"40 years reserves left at current production
rates" ....This is a very misleading statement
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Alaskan North Slope ProductionReserves grow --
Production falls
Prudhoe Bay, Alaska
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A simple observation -- or why peak will be
earlier than most people expect

• Global production falls when loss of output from
  countries in decline exceeds gains in output from
  those that are expanding.

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Why are oil supplies peaking?

• We are not finding oil fast enough
• We are not developing fields fast enough
• Too many fields are old and declining
• We are short of people and equipment
• Oilfield inflation is soaring

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How old are the fields?

• Of the 18 largest fields, 12 are in decline, 5
  have some potential and 1 is undeveloped
• The 120 largest fields give 50 of total
• 70 of production from fields 30 years old
• Few large recent discoveries
• Relying more and more on ageing fields and new
  small discoveries

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What are the BP statistics saying?

• OECD production peaked in 1997 and has now
  declined by just under 2 million b/d (8.8)
• Non-Opec, non-FSU production peaked 2002
• North America/Mexico peaked in 1997
• North Sea - UK/Norway/Denmark peaked in 2000 now
  declined by 1.2 million b/d (19.2)
• Around 25 significant producers in decline
• About 28 of global production from decliners

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The top five decliners in 2005
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How the Megaprojects database is created and used
Megaprojects Report, Petroleum Review April 2006

• All publicly available data
• 2006-2012 148 Opec and 70 non-Opec projects
• Opec data (from their website)
• Incremental production allocated by start up date
• Graphed to show volumes available to meet demand

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Global liquids capacity to 2015
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Chris Skrebowski's conclusions

• Supply will remain tight and prices high barring
  a major economic setback
• Oil supply will peak in 2010/2011 at around 92-94
  million barrels/day
• Oil supply in international trade may peak
  earlier than the oil production peak
• Collectively we are still in denial
• WE HAVE JUST 1,500 DAYS TO PEAK

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Australia uses 45,000,000,000 litres of oil each
year a cube of about 360 metres size
80 of Australias oil usage is in transport
If Australias 20 M tpa wheat crop ? ethanol
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Perths Central Park building is 249 m high, to
top of tower
100 ml of oil contains 1 kWh of energy. Enough
to move a small car to the top of the Eiffel
tower
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Oil production is not shared equitably US
5 of world's population uses 25 of world
oil China 21
8
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Consumption
1000 Barrel/day
China
Production
Imports
Data BP. Analyse Zittel LBST, ß, Pang Xiongqi
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Oil available for export
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Worldwide Crash Program Mitigation of
Conventional Oil Production Peaking A Study for
DOE NETL Hirsch et al., 2005
Delay / Rapid growth. Roughly 35 MM bpd at year
20.
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Australian Government Policy and Action Options
1 Talk about it, Talk about it
2. Engage people, Participatory democracy
3. Dismantle the "perverse policies" that
subsidise heavy car use and excessive freight
transport.
4. Encourage frugal use of fuel, and
disadvantage profligate users. Fuel taxes should
be incrementally raised to European levels to
reduce usage.
5 SmartCard tradable personal fuel allocation
system. A flexible mechanism for short-term oil
shocks, as well for encouraging people to reduce
their fuel usage..
6. Concentrate on the psychological and social
dimensions of automobile dependence, not just
technological fixes
7. Implement nationwide "individualised
marketing" travel demand management.
8. Railways, cyclepaths and public transport are
better investments than more roads.
9. Give priority for remaining oil and gas
supplies to food production, essential services
and indigenous communities, using the Smart-Card
system.
10. Review the oil vulnerability of every
industry and community sector and how each may
reduce their risks.
11 Promote through the United Nations an
Intergovernmental Panel on Oil Depletion, and a
Kyoto-like protocol to allocate equitably the
declining oil among nations. An international
tradable sliding scale allocation mechanism is
one hypothetical option.
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Urban passenger mode shares Australia
Car
High automobile-dependence Public transport
share is very low
Potterton BTRE 2003
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Government of Western Australia STATE LIQUID
FUEL SHORTAGE EMERGENCY PLAN OPERATIONAL PLAN
PREPARED BY ENERGY SAFETY DIRECTORATE DEPARTMENT
OF CONSUMER AND EMPLOYMENT PROTECTION 20
Southport Street, W Leederville WA 6007 Tel
[phone] Fax [phone] January
2003
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We need both petrol rationing plans and public
transport rationing plans in place in case of
fuel emergencies. Bicycle transport is one
substantial opportunity for public transport
load-shedding in the event of a liquid fuel
emergency. PTA must have more input into Liquid
Fuel Shortage planning
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a few more slides follow, in case they are needed
for questions
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February 2004
By 2015, we will need to find, develop and
produce new oil and gas equal to eight out of
every 10 barrels being produced today.
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Gboe/pa World All
Oil
www.PeakOil.net Association for the Study of
Peak Oil Gas, 2004
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