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Digital technology impacts by 2020 Pew Internet / Elon University tension pairs

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Title: Digital technology impacts by 2020 Pew Internet / Elon University tension pairs


1
Digital technology impacts by 2020Pew Internet /
Elon University tension pairs
  • Lee Rainie
  • Pew Research Centers Internet American Life
    Project
  • Janna Anderson
  • Elon University Imagining the Internet Center
  • Presented to World Future Society
  • July 27, 2012

2
Networked in the future
  • Three revolutions
  • Scenarios of life and love in the metaverse
  • Mo for me
  • Mo for them

3
About the Future of the Internet surveys
  • Our inspirer

4
About the Future of the Internet surveys
  • Me and Janna Anderson of Elon U.
  • We issue our reports free online
  • Books published by Cambria Press

5
About the Future of the Internet surveys
  • Respondents - Experts in Early 90s Predictions
    Database
  • New invitees (high-tech organizations, etc.)
  • Pass-along recommendations
  • Friends Pew Internet
  • Not a scientific sample

6
About the Future of the Internet surveys
  • We pose scenarios in order to inspire detailed
    elaborations
  • The qualitative work is the meat of the effort

7
Survey 1 2004
  • Hits (impact by 2014)
  • News organizations and publishing would be
    slammed
  • Health, education systems not expected to change
    radically
  • Online security would be a growing problem and
    attacks increase
  • Surprises
  • Awed by rise of web, search engines, P2P
  • Disappointed by lack of change so far in schools
    and digital divides

http//amzn.to/NLpw5u
8
Survey 2 2006
  • Hits (impact by 2020)
  • Virtual reality will allow more productivity but
    at some human cost
  • No consensus
  • Benefits of transparency will make the world a
    better place by 2020 46 agreed 49 disagreed
  • Autonomous technology is a problem / humans lose
    control 54 were still in charge 42 weve
    lost some control

http//amzn.to/ONbq0R
9
Survey 3 2008
  • Hits (impact by 2020)
  • 77 said mobile devices to be primary connection
  • 64 support advanced UI for talk and touch some
    add think interface
  • 56 agree work/personal line blurs and thats
    OK
  • No consensus
  • Transparency would lead to more personal
    integrity and forgiveness 45-44

http//amzn.to/PNMifh
10
Survey 4 2009-10
  • Hits (impact by 2020)
  • 80 said innovation will continue to surprise and
    lead to products / apps that come out of the
    blue
  • 76 said intelligence will be enhanced
    cognitive capacity will shift
  • 65 said reading, writing, rendering of knowledge
    will be improved
  • No consensus
  • Anonymity will/wont survive? Maybe morph into
    pseudonymity 55-41

http//amzn.to/Qf3ozm
11
Survey 5 2011
  • August 28 October 31
  • 1,021 respondents
  • 40 research scientist employed by a college or
    university
  • 12 work at IT firms
  • 11 work at non-profits
  • 10 do IT work at their firm
  • 8 consultants
  • 5 government workers
  • 2 work for pub/media

http//bit.ly/LX9dyQ
12
Survey 5 2011
  • 8 tension pair scenarios one scenario posits
    big change by 2020 the other, little or no
    change
  • Top-of-mind subjects
  • We arent perfect

http//bit.ly/LX9dyQ
13
The 4 pairs findings you can read on your own
  • Web vs. apps Which will prevail? (Real action
    is in HTML5)
  • http//bit.ly/GGJHAK
  • Gamification How widely will it spread? (Itll
    get better through evolution, but watch out for
    manipulation)
  • http//bit.ly/Jcq2tI

14
The 4 pairs findings you can read on your own
  • Corporate responsibility How far will they go
    in cooperating with repressive regimes? (The key
    is if/how dissidents and white-hat hackers take
    charge)
  • http//bit.ly/N1OkpM
  • Smart systems What will the home of the future
    look like? (Complex systems are a bear to run)
  • http//bit.ly/QzW1o6

15
Pattern recognition in answers
  • Hope often characterizes their choices at time
    more than clear-eyed calculation
  • Deep and chronic tensions persist in the
    respondents views
  • Security vs. privacy
  • Desire for more information vs. simplicity
  • Human plasticity vs. immutability
  • Socio-economic divisions are ongoing reality

16
Pattern recognition in answers
  • Your questions are not right
  • Your timeframe is off in both directions
  • Pew Internet mantra
  • Mobile is the needle, social is the thread,
    people are the cloth -- is a big part of the
    story

17
How will hyperconnected Millennials
live?http//pewinternet.org/Reports/2012/Hypercon
nected-lives.aspx
18
Millennials future
  • In 2020 the brains of multitasking teens and
    young adults are "wired" differently from those
    over age 35 and overall it yields helpful
    results. They do not suffer notable cognitive
    shortcomings as they multitask and cycle quickly
    through personal- and work-related tasks. Rather,
    they are learning more and they are more adept at
    finding answers to deep questions, in part
    because they can search effectively and access
    collective intelligence via the Internet. In sum,
    the changes in learning behavior and cognition
    among the young generally produce positive
    outcomes.

19
Millennials future
  • In 2020, the brains of multitasking teens and
    young adults are "wired" differently from those
    over age 35 and overall it yields baleful
    results. They do not retain information they
    spend most of their energy sharing short social
    messages, being entertained, and being distracted
    away from deep engagement with people and
    knowledge. They lack deep-thinking capabilities
    they lack face-to-face social skills they depend
    in unhealthy ways on the Internet and mobile
    devices to function. In sum, the changes in
    behavior and cognition among the young are
    generally negative outcomes.

20
Millennials future
  • Change for the better
  • Change for the worse
  • 52
  • 42

21
Themes
  • Quick twitch younger supertaskers will master
    data streams more adeptly
  • John Smart Kuznets curve (tech version) will be
    beginning phase 3
  • This world will produce new winners and losers ,
    separated by search skills, social network
    capital, strategic mastery of attention
  • Ubiquitous data and diversions will drive some to
    shallow choices and diminished lives

22
Surprise/delight
  • Amber Case, cyberanthropologist, CEO of Geoloqi
  • We are becoming persistent paleontologists of
    our own external memories, as our brains are
    storing the keywords to get back to those
    memories and not the full memories themselves.
  • Tiffany Shlain, director of the film Connected
  • As Sophocles once said, Nothing vast enters the
    life of mortals without a curse.

23
Whats the future of money?http//www.pewinternet
.org/Reports/2012/Future-of-Money.aspx
24
Future of money
  • By 2020, most people will have embraced and fully
    adopted the use of smart-device swiping for
    purchases they make, nearly eliminating the need
    for cash or credit cards. People will come to
    trust and rely on personal hardware and software
    for handling monetary transactions over the
    Internet and in stores. Cash and credit cards
    will have mostly disappeared from many of the
    transactions that occur in advanced countries.

25
Future of money
  • People will not trust the use of near-field
    communications devices and there will not be
    major conversion of money to an
    all-digital-all-the-time format. By 2020,
    payments through the use of mobile devices will
    not have gained a lot of traction as a method for
    transactions. The security implications raise too
    many concerns among consumers about the safety of
    their money. And people are resistant to letting
    technology companies learn even more about their
    personal purchasing habits. Cash and credit cards
    will still be the dominant method of carrying out
    transactions in advanced countries.

26
Future of money
  • More or less cashless
  • Not much change
  • 65
  • 33

27
Themes
  • Its already happening. Its all about the
    smartphone and two-factor authentication
  • Paper/coined money and advantages of selective
    anonymity will still matter
  • Trust isnt the issue as much as the complexity
    of these systems
  • and willingness of card companies to embrace
    them
  • Barry Chudakov Rise of peer-to-peer currencies

28
Surprise/delight
  • Jerry Michalski, founder of Relationship Economy
    Expedition and Sociate
  • It's going to get incredibly easy to set up
    local currencies that may not be coupled to
    fiat currencies , thus freeing them from the
    vagaries of the global financial markets.
  • Kevin Carson, researcher, Center for a Stateless
    Society
  • The paperless digital economy will exist to a
    considerable extent under cover of a darknet,
    with a lot of re-localized economic activity
    that violates zoning, licensing, and spurious
    health and safety laws sucking commerce out
    of the official above-ground economy.

29
The impact of Big Data?http//www.pewinternet.org
/Reports/2012/Future-of-Big-Data.aspx
30
Future of Big Data
  • Thanks to many changes, including the building of
    "the Internet of Things," human and machine
    analysis of large data sets will improve social,
    political, and economic intelligence by 2020. The
    rise of what is known as "Big Data" will
    facilitate things like  "nowcasting" (real-time
    "forecasting" of events) the development of
    "inferential software" that assesses data
    patterns to project outcomes and the creation of
    algorithms for advanced correlations that enable
    new understanding of the world. Overall, the rise
    of Big Data is a huge positive for society in
    nearly all respects.

31
Future of Big Data
  • Thanks to many changes, including the building of
    "the Internet of Things," human and machine
    analysis of Big Data will cause more problems
    than it solves by 2020. The existence of huge
    data sets for analysis will engender false
    confidence in our predictive powers and will lead
    many to make significant and hurtful mistakes.
    Moreover, analysis of Big Data will be misused by
    powerful people and institutions with selfish
    agendas who manipulate findings to make the case
    for what they want. And the advent of Big Data
    has a harmful impact because it serves the
    majority (at times inaccurately) while
    diminishing the minority and ignoring important
    outliers. Overall, the rise of Big Data is a big
    negative for society in nearly all respects.

32
Future of Big Data
  • Improve intelligence
  • Cause new problems
  • 53
  • 39

33
Themes
  • Jeff Jarvis Demonizing data is demonizing
    knowledge and the analytical tools will only
    get better
  • Dont downplay the dark side of surveillance
    society
  • DIY analytics/monitoring will be as helpful as
    Big Data numbers crunching
  • Human capacities are the key to its success and
    likely shortcomings
  • How to lie with the Internet of Things /
    distribution of harms (Oscar Gandy)

34
Surprise/delight
  • Patrick Tucker
  • Computer science, data-mining, and a growing
    network of sensors and information-collection
    software programs are giving rise to a phenomenal
    occurrence, the knowable future.

35
The future of higher education?
36
Higher eds future
  • By 2020, higher education will be quite different
    from the way it is today. There will be mass
    adoption of teleconferencing and distance
    learning to leverage expert resources.
    Significant numbers of learning activities will
    move to individualized, just-in-time learning
    approaches. There will be a transition to
    "hybrid" classes that combine online learning
    components with less-frequent on-campus,
    in-person class meetings. Most universities'
    assessment of learning will take into account
    more individually-oriented outcomes and
    capacities that are relevant to subject mastery.
    Requirements for graduation will be significantly
    shifted to customized outcomes.

37
Higher eds future
  • In 2020, higher education will not be much
    different from the way it is today. While people
    will be accessing more resources in classrooms
    through the use of large screens,
    teleconferencing, and personal wireless smart
    devices, most universities will mostly require
    in-person, on-campus attendance of students most
    of the time at courses featuring a lot of
    traditional lectures. Most universities'
    assessment of learning and their requirements for
    graduation will be about the same as they are now.

38
Higher eds future
  • Big change
  • Not so much
  • 60
  • 39

39
Themes
  • Innovate or die
  • Its the economy and customers, stupid!
  • Competency credentialing, yes degree
    customization, not so much (David Ellis)
  • Learning is changing from a transaction to a
    process lifelong, perpetual learning and it
    will take place in new spaces Peer-to-peer
    collaborations emerge
  • Whats the franchise? Whats the commodity?

40
Surprise/delight
  • Bryan Alexander, senior fellow at the National
    Institute for Technology in Liberal Education
  • By 2020 we will see the number of college
    campuses will dwindle. Those that survive will
    emphasize face-to-face experiences campus
    grounds (beauty, history, charm) charismatic
    teachers a sense of tradition.

41
Why predictions matter
  • Ithiel De Sola Poole, Technologies of Freedom
  • On the printing press, telegraph, radio,
    television
  • These technologies caused revised conceptions
    of man's place in the universe 

42
  • Amen!
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