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Preparing for the Twenty-first Century. Paul Kennedy

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Title: Preparing for the Twenty-First Century. Paul Kennedy Author: Shanna Hamilton Last modified by: Laurie Dressler Created Date: 9/2/1998 12:13:34 AM – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Preparing for the Twenty-first Century. Paul Kennedy


1
Preparing for the Twenty-first Century. Paul
Kennedy
  • Chapter ten
  • Winners and losers in the developing world

2
Winners and Losers in the Developing World
  • A review of successes and failures of developing
    nations in their pursuit of improvement

3
Presentation Outline
  • Introduction -- Alicia Dalton
  • Latin America -- Laurie Dressler
  • Islamic world -- Emily Lambright
  • African nations -- Stacey Hipp
  • Conclusions -- Shanna Hamilton
  • Class debate

4
Requirements for Success
  • Throughout history, four key issues set the
    guidelines for successful growth and development
  • Population
  • Education
  • Policy
  • Capital

5
Changing a Have-not Nation Into a Have Nation
  • Control of the population growth rate
  • Utmost importance of education throughout the
    society
  • Strong governmental policies
  • Valuable natural resources and other available
    capital

6
Gap Between Rich and Poor
  • Always been a separation between economically
    rich and poor nations
  • This gap is continuing to widen
  • This yields two responses
  • Resentment by poorer peoples against prosperous
    societies
  • A desire to emulate (imitate, or follow in ones
    footsteps)
  • Example Koreas emulation of Japan

7
Unique Example -- Korea
  • During 1960s, had little promise regarding
    development and economic improvement
  • Had very few resources
  • Since 1960s GNP increased 10 to 12 times
  • Korea is becoming one of the richest countries of
    all in the twenty-first century
  • Success mainly due to the decreasing population
    growth rate

8
Unique Example -- West Africa
  • Had more resources than Korea
  • Increasing population growth, often due to
    cultural and religious reasons
  • Continuing to face chronic poverty, poor health,
    malnutrition, and underdevelopment

9
Economic Domestic Challenges of Latin America
Countries
10
Population Changes
  • Bolivia, the Dominican republic Haiti
  • Higher fertility rate lower life expectancy
  • Brazil, Columbia, Mexico, Venezuela, Costa Rica
  • Lower fertility rate longer life expectancy
  • Argentina, chili Uruguay
  • Demographic characteristics of developed countries

11
Facts
  • In the 1980s, as east Asia was gaining ground,
    Latin America's condition worsened
  • Between 1980-1988 Latin America's real GDP per
    person steadily fell by an annual average 0.9
  • With few exceptions, most countries now have per
    capita GDP's lower than those a decade earlier

12
What Went Wrong?
  • Government errors
  • Pursued a policy of import substitution
  • Poured money into state-owned enterprises, large
    bureaucracies, oversized armed forces
  • Raised loans from western banks international
    agencies
  • Industries were given protective tariffs,
    government subsidies tax breaks
  • Lax financial policies an increased reliance
    upon foreign borrowing

13
Results
  • Their products became less attractive abroad
  • Price inflation accelerated
  • Their currency was practically worthless

14
Increased Debt
  • Some L.A. Countries are among the most indebted
    in the world
  • Most countries were incapable of repaying even
    the interest on their loans
  • Loan defaults caused capital to dry up from
    western banks a net capital outflow
  • 180 million people (40 percent) are living in
    poverty

15
Educational Weaknesses
  • Educational system suffered neglect lack of
    investment
  • Decay of educational structures left some
    universities without heat some public schools
    without glass window panes
  • In Guatemala, approximately 63 of those ten
    years of age and older are illiterate
  • In areas of least education, increasing
    population erodes away resources

16
Political Progress
  • The coming of democratic regimes
  • Stiff economic reforms
  • Replacement of state protectionism with import
    liberalization
  • Conversion of budget deficits into surpluses

17
Detriments to U.S. Due to Latin America
Relationship
  • U.S. Exports are hurt by Latin America's economic
    problems
  • Environment threatened by diminishing amazon
    central American rain forests
  • Drug problem fueled by Latin America supplies
  • gt 80 of cocaine 90 of marijuana entering U.S.
    Are made/moved through Latin America
  • Population is altered by migration from Mexico,
    the Caribbean, central America

18
The World of Islam Faces Many Problems That Are
Common to Other Developing Countries
  • Population problems
  • Shortages of resources
  • Educational and technological deficiencies
  • Regional conflicts that lessen political stability

19
Three Main Factors That Influence the Development
Rate of the Middle East
  • Uneven location of oil in the middle east
    issues of wars and conflicts
  • Issues of war and conflict
  • Certain regimes resentment of global forces for
    change

20
Oil Distribution
  • A division between the super rich and the
    dreadfully poor
  • Large neighbors (Iraq and Iran) are jealous of
    less populated and oil-rich countries (Kuwait 2
    million and united Arab emirates 1.3 million
    people)

21
Oil Distribution (Continued)
  • The massive assistance given to have-nots by
    certain haves (Saudi Arabia to Iraq) causes
    hostility among neighbors

22
War and Conflict
  • More than any other developing region, then, the
    future of the middle east and north Africa is
    affected by issues or war and conflict.
  • Billions of dollars of armaments have been
    supplied to the region by western, soviet, and
    Chinese producers

23
Global Change
  • . . .The regimes themselves stand in angry
    resentment of global forces for change. . .

24
Global Change (Continued)
  • Some people recommend wide-scale education to
    combat this like Japan and Scandinavia did

  • Few females are educated in strongly
    fundamentalist areas
  • Many educated Arabs immigrate to other countries
    for occupational opportunities

25
Global Change (Continued)
  • Religious intolerance, technological
    backwardness, and a feudal cast of mind are
    blamed by some for the regions reluctance to
    change

  • Others believe that the successful expansionist
    actions of Europe helped Islam's retreat into
    itself

26
  • Clearly , Islam suffers from many
    self-inflicted problems. But if much of its
    angry, confrontational stance toward the
    international order of today is due to a
    long-held fear of being swallowed up by the west,
    not much in the way of change can be expected
    until fear is dissipated.

27
Sub-Sahara Africa
  • The third worlds third world

28
Optimism for the Future
  • In the 1960s many of the countries of Africa
    were gaining their independence.
  • There was an overwhelming belief that
    independence would bring with it economic
    prosperity.
  • There were hopes of building industries,
    improving the infrastructure, and increasing
    their self sufficiency.

29
Inhibitions to Success
30
Population Increases
  • Importation of improvements in medicine
  • Decreased infant mortality rates
  • Longer life span
  • Cultural and religious beliefs
  • Achievement of higher social status due to having
    larger families
  • Women not bearing numerous children were believed
    to be cursed

31
Insubstantial Agricultural Productivity
  • Farm output has not increased in relation to the
    population
  • Larger numbers of grazing cattle and sheep have
    caused substantial deforestation and topsoil
    erosion
  • Africans were forced to rely on the importation
    of foodstuffs

32
Increased Debt
  • Optimism and ambition of African nationalists led
    to increased debt as they attempted to build new
    airports, harbors, and factories
  • Large populations necessitated increased
    borrowing to purchase imported foodstuffs
  • Western lenders began to deny giving more loans
    to many African countries as they were unable to
    collect on past debt

33
Political Unrest
  • European colonialists divided up the African
    continent with no regard for the historical
    boundaries that had been set by previous tribes
    and groups
  • Warring groups were forced to live under the same
    governments
  • Few governments were able to hold onto power long
    enough to achieve any major accomplishments

34
Inadequate Education
  • While population continues to increase, there has
    been no increase in the attempts to educate the
    young Africans
  • African nations have typically fallen far behind
    other nations of the world in providing education
    for its citizens
  • With many eager to learn, there is little
    opportunity for them to continue their education
    beyond primary school

35
Angola Vs. Sweden
  • Less than 2.4 million attend primary schools
  • 570,000 attend secondary schools
  • 179,000 attend institutions of higher education
  • 2.4 million children attend primary schools
  • 153,000 attend secondary schools
  • 4,700 attend institutions of higher education

36
Western Intervention
37
Advantages
  • Temporary relief from starvation for a number of
    starving Africans
  • Renewed hope for the future prosperity of
    sub-Saharan Africa
  • Hard currency to buy imported goods
  • Global intervention to promote peace among
    warring groups

38
Disadvantages
  • Compliance with certain stipulations required by
    the awarding state or institution
  • Promise to maintain favorable economic relations
    with the awarding nations that may prove
    unfavorable to Africa
  • Continued dependence on foreign aid
  • Deeper debt

39
What Is the Bottom Line????
  • There is a dynamic interplay of factors that
    effects the growth and development of countries
  • Population, policy, education and capital are the
    big four -- these factors distinguish the haves
    from the have-nots

40
Education
  • Education is the single most important factor
    that has a huge effect on social, political, and
    technological development
  • Education has the ability to control population
    growth
  • Education can increase environmental quality
  • Education can reduce the transmission of disease
    thus increasing the overall productivity of a
    country or community

41
Education (Continued)
  • Population, policy and lack of capital effect the
    availability and quality of education
  • In 1993 statistics showed that there were 2,635
    Scientist per million Americans, but in Latin
    America there were only 209 Scientist per million
    Latins. This illustrates the differences in
    availability of education.
  • Education is proportional to technological
    advancements

42
Population
  • Unchecked population growth is a common
    denominator in Latin America, The Middle East and
    Africa
  • Statistics show that Africas population will
    double every 20 years
  • None of these countries produce enough resources
    to sustain their rate of growth
  • Large populations decreases the availability and
    quality of employment and quality lives
  • Inadequate resources generates impoverished
    conditions this increases the incident of disease

43
Policy
  • Strong political framework within which economic
    growth is fostered is a key element in the
    development of any country
  • One of the things that made Korea and Taiwan's
    development successful was the institution of
    strict policy governing spending (imports) and
    investments

44
Policy (Continued)
  • Differences in economic policy
  • Africa and other primary commodity producing
    countries are for higher raw material prices
    where as the export oriented manufacturing
    nations of east Asia sought to keep prices low
  • Latin America, The middle east, and Africa have
    not developed governments that successfully
    implement plans for technological and social
    development

45
Capital
  • Availability of capital increases the
    opportunities of developing countries
  • High levels of national savings employing fiscal
    measures, taxes and import controls to encourage
    personal saving .
  • Large amounts of low interest capital made
    available for investment in manufacture and
    commerce.

46
Capital (Continued)
  • What did Taiwan and Korea Do???
  • Increased personal savings in 1987 Taiwan saved
    approximately 38.8 of its money,
    comparatively America saved approximately 12.7
  • Both Korea and Taiwan were committed to
    exporting their managers and work forces were
    trained to produce what foreign customers wanted.
  • The value of their currency was kept to increase
    exports and decrease imports

47
..And Finally
  • The developing countries response to the broad
    forces for global change is going to be uneven.
    While some are in distress others are booming.
  • We can only expect that the financial and
    communications revolution and the emergence of
    multinational corporations will increase the gap
    between the rich and the poor

48
And Finally (Continued)
  • In sum, as we move into the 21st century the
    developed economies appear to have all of the
    trump cards in their hands - capital, technology,
    control of communications, and surplus of
    foodstuffs - and if anything, their advantages
    are growing because technology is eroding the
    value of labor.

49
The Story of Winners and Losers will continue
only this time modern communication will remind
us all of the growing disparity.
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