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Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science (MoSeS)

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Title: PowerPoint Presentation Author: Andy Turner Last modified by: Andy Turner Created Date: 5/22/2001 12:00:42 PM Document presentation format – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science (MoSeS)


1
Modelling and Simulation for e-Social Science
(MoSeS)
  • Mark Birkin, Martin Clarke, Phil Rees,
  • Andy Turner, Belinda Wu
  • (School of Geography)
  • Haibo Chen
  • (Institute for Transport Studies)
  • Justin Keen
  • (Institute for Health Sciences)
  • Pete Dew, Jie Xu, John Hodrien
  • (School of Computing)

2
e-Science and Grid Computing
  • Computer Scientists are building the next
    generation of computational infrastructure
  • The Grid intends to make access to computing
    power, scientific data repositories and
    experimental facilities as easy as the Web makes
    access to information. (Tony Blair, 2002)
  • Will provide the capability for virtual data
    sharing, easy and secure access to massive
    computational resources within collaborative
    working environments (virtual organisations)

3
e-Science and Grid Computing
  • Example applications
  • AstroGrid
  • MyGrid
  • UK Research Councils and DTI have invested at
    least 340 million since 2001
  • How should social scientists be exploiting this
    technology?

4
  • Use e-Science as a basis for renewed interest in
    urban simulation modelling
  • SimCity for Real
  • www.future-cities.org

5
Some Objectives
  • Develop and package a suite of modelling tools
    that allow for specific research and policy
    questions to be addressed
  • Create a model of the UK population as
    individuals and households
  • Develop case study applications with specific
    reference to
  • Health
  • Business
  • Transport

6
Modelling and Simulation Tools
  • Utilise UK National Grid Service
  • SRB
  • GROWL
  • Dynamic
  • Microsimulation
  • Multi Agent and Environment Based
  • Scenario Based Forecasting

7
Health Scenario
  • Track health needs of one population cohort
    (elderly?)
  • Combination of primary and secondary health
    services plus social care
  • Lifetime histories poorly understood (modelling
    data issues) (joined up government)
  • Substitution effects
  • Social networks dimension Sports Clubs,
    Community Centres

8
Example Scenario
  • The Northern Way Business Plan aims to reduce the
    output gap between the Region and the National
    average
  • too few in employment,
  • insufficient skill levels,
  • and an economy lacking in dynamism.
  • One important component of reducing the gap is
    through improving the quality and efficiency of
    the Regions transportation infrastructure,
    roads, railways, ports and airports.
    Specifically, the Plan refers to (C6,C7,C8)
    objectives of
  • Increasing to 17.2 million business and 6.4
    million inbound leisure travellers each year
    through Northern Airports
  • Increase ship arrivals and throughput tonnes of
    Northern ports to 25 and 35 of the national
    total
  • Reduce congestion in the inter-urban strategic
    road network to below the national average by 2010

9
Example Scenario
  • Conventional approach

e.g. Birkin and M. Clarke (1987) Simmonds
and G. Clarke (2005)
10
Example Scenario
  • Alternative approach

Examples?? PUMA?
11
Challenges
  • Grid enabling data and tools
  • Visualisation
  • Google Earth
  • Computer Games
  • Collaboration
  • Retaining a problem focus
  • Design and Development

12
Transport Applications
  • Explore environmental consequences of demographic
    change
  • Forecast traffic change
  • SATURN
  • Estimate vehicle emissions factors
  • AIMSUN, PARAMICS, DRACULA
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